Market Participants Waded Through The various Central Bank Decisions & Brexit Rumble.By Kenneth@Xtrade - on September 20, 2019
Market participants waded through the various central bank decisions & Brexit Rumble.
Following, Wednesdays Fed rate cut and forward guidance which seemed to have been priced in the USD maintained bullish undertones with the DXY trading in a little changed range in the 98th zone effectively placing almost all other majors in a subordinate stance to the greenback. The resounding message was that there are other cuts in the near future from the Feds. Naturally, as the news was not overwhelming to the markets, investors are seen taking their time to adjust their positions.
In essence, the rollercoaster scenario persists. More so exacerbated by the uncertainties from the rumblings in the Brexit process which is likely going to be suspended post the intended date of October 31st. as per several political and economic analysts, a view which resounds to mine.
The good news is, ‘volatility” the good old double-edged sword could be observed gyrating certain assets profusely which renders more trading opportunities for day traders and not necessarily for long term traders except when taken about the safe havens and emerging markets.
Borrowing from our the Portuguese, Aluta Continua! (The struggle continues) however, those strategizing accordingly are seen limiting risks and able to obtain consistently profitable ROI accounts. Knowing when to get on and of the roller coaster has unofficial always been an art form.
Embracing the weekend market participants are expected to take the last roller coaster ride with profit-taking, The Baker Hughes Rig count, more deliberations on the twist and turns of the Brexit, developments in the restoration of Saudi’s damaged oil supply chain and developments between the US and China trade saga will be monitored closely to aid in the considerations when placing or adjusting positions. As Central Banks also look for the soft landings.
Global Stocks: It is recorded that a wise King once stated,
“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun”.
The above quote was perhaps to emphasis the roller coasting era which markets are akin to adhere most to in recent times and behold any observing their acquired assets may notice these pattern within almost all the technical indicators more so with the RSI, MACD, and or within the Ichimoku clouds. Thus, everything that goes up shall surely come down and vice versa.
- WALLSTREET: What is new then? US stocks rose and fell only to trade sideways in familiar thresholds. Many have enjoyed these intense trending cycles while others got lost in the abrupt market cyclones.
USA30: Was one of the US stocks caught trading sideways after rallying on news of advancement between US and China trade talks then flopping on Fed Rate Cut, then crawling in a range seen today between 27,064.0 – 27,152.5 up 0.22% Our Technical analysis which proved to be nearly 90% accurate for those that use it. Reveals the trading range could bound to the resistance level at 27,300.0 and support level at 27,000.00
- THE EU MARKET: Continues to turn on the roller coaster as well for the duration that the same market drivers are at bay.
Germany30: Was spotted bullish in its outlook from the days open of 12,414.2 some seesaws are expected as Traders on the DAX 30 Future interprets the effects of the day’s German PPI reports. If able to sustain the scrutiny to keep above the 12,400.00 2nd support levels, then trading may range between 12,402.8 – 12,474.3 with further upside to about 12,515.00 as per our technical analysis.
Italy40: After flirting bullishly with the 22k thresholds. The Italian FTSE went for a pizza break. Seen down-trending 0.22% at the time of print at 22,097.50 marking a trading path between 21,997.50 – 22,157.50. Our technical analysts may have stretched the elastic limits to accommodate those that may be caught in till Monday. With a 2nd resistance level noted at 22,185.00 and adversely a support level market at 21,915.00
UK100: The Futures were perched firming with its 52-week trading range 6,475 – 7,666 which is supposed to be of some consolation for traders. Yet, with Brexit Oil politics, and the BOE tweaking’s sideways in mid-range is frequently the case seen in the trading patterns today caught between 7,274.5 – 7,337 it is highly plausible that after reaching the current resistant levels some downward knee-jerking will be recorded and the GBP Flexes. Support levels could be breached to 7,240.00 according to our technical if all breaks loss.
- ASIAN MARKET: At some point around the 13th on the month Asian stocks managed to climb to 6-month highs. Sprouted by the European Central Banks decision on easing. Now with mixed vibes about trade talks, some downward corrections are to be expected.
HongKong50: From the day’s open of 26,549.0 tradings is expected to come off recent highs to trade in a contained range between 26,396.0 – 26,593.5 Our technical analysis does see upside movements to 26,672.00 as a possibility.
Malaysia 70: Came off recent highs above 14k However, at present struggles to maintain consistency in the 14,000 thresholds. Trading may be confined to a range between 13,905.62 – 13,968.55. In case of any positive development upside to 14,080.0 should be crossed if not the other end may be a dive to 13,840.0
Commodities: It’s mixed
Oil: As mentioned Oil politics has been heightened and depending on how market participant’s sentiments are stroke trends may resonate in tandem. A quick overview will be from the ascension of the new Saudi Energy Minister Prince Bin Salman to recent attacks on Saudi’s oil supply and the rhetoric or blame games and repercussion thereof, in the pipelines sent WTI crude prices to nearly $60.90 bbl. However, in light of constraints to future demands rate of productions by Non- OPEC countries and fallout on the US –china talks which seems trying to get back on tracks. Prices dropped. The previous close was at 59.19 with the day open at 58.67. However, trading is likely to range between 58.34 – 58.92 for most of the EU trading session after which trends could be carried to the resistance level at 60.18 ahead of the Baker Hughes Rig count report or to support level at 57.83 US-China talks spin out of control.
Gold: Has been relatively cool not getting overly excited and not losing hope either. Naturally, as traders attempt to profit off the riskier assets. Bets are reduced. However, standing by previous prediction any significant drop warrants a buying strategy Gold futures are likely to be trading between 1,505.35 – 1,514.25. Oscillating with some petite bullish undertones. Slips to the psychological support level at 1,490.31 may be plausible at which point we assume you should know what move to take.
It is a little bizarre in the forex market as normally correlated pairs seem to act incongruently each driven by different factors or reacting to the same nemesis
- USD/JPY: Even though the DXY indicated the USD is strong it is seen losing steam before the safe-haven JPY. Trading between 107.78 – 108.08 technical analysis provides a close range to the current threshold with a 2nd resistance level at 108.16 a 3rd resistance level at 108.46 and a 2nd support level at 107.68 if all fails.
- EUR/USD: Pair trade in and out of gains with abrupt swings ranging between 1.1022 – 1.1068
- GBP/USD: The Cable caught some unwinds rallying against the USD in the early EU trading hours based on some reports of positive strides in the Brexit debacle. However, am afraid that there seem to be too many potholes and the pound may lose steam just as fast as it gained it.
Next week crypto regulations will be securitizing the era once again. The Aim has been to put more regulation in place before blessing crypto trading on major exchanges. Check out development on “Delivering Alpha” in the meantime the weekend draws near and perhaps the could be another weekend rally in the making after a couple of weekends with relative quietness
BTC/USD: Was observed trading between 9,880.0 – 10,487.0 with occasional breakout both to the upside and downside whereby 9,500. 0 may be a good entry and 10,500.0 a good exit or vice-versa until further notice.
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