US NFP Cooks. Market Gyrations Remain Choppy. US Trade Tariffs For EU Is On.By Kenneth@Xtrade - on October 4, 2019
US NFP Cooks. Market gyrations remain choppy. US Trade Tariffs for EU is On.
China, South Korea, and Germany are all on holidays each to commemorate their own holiday’s
Meanwhile, President Trump revisited his threat or pledge to tax the EU on US imports. A view which seems to be materializing with blessings or backing from the WTO, World Trade Organisation going into effect as soon by the 18th of this month.
Following Wednesday ADP report which disappointed markets coining in at 135,000 instead of the estimated 140,000. Traders that have become accustomed to using the ADP. Automatic Data processing report as a prelude guide to the NFP. Non-farm Payrolls may expect a dismal report. Other market participants have lost confidence in the validity of the ADP acting as a precursor to the NFP’s correlation.
Global Stocks: Are likely going to be whisking to and fro resistance to support and vice versa in their current ranges breakouts will still be in between the 52-week averages.
- WALLSTREET: Was predicted to have a muted open with gains in check.
USA30: All in all, the Dow lost close to 800 pips since the beginning of the week. By the time of print, it was observed attempting to recover, however, any bullish undertones maybe unstainable ahead of the non-farm payrolls report. Despite the diminutive macro moves which seem to upset the outlook of the 4th Quarter. Ranging between 26,078.5-26,243.0 Upside may climb to highs of 26,359.00 or head to the 2nd support at 25,766.00
- THE EU MARKET: Following small correction in specific EU markets, the overall mood may be sour as the US seeks to impose tariffs on the European Zone on US imports and the EU prepares to retaliate.
Germany30: Dropped from recent highs and remains pressured below the 12,000 psychological level with no resolute. Ranging between 11,864.5 – 11,989.3 selloffs my send the rate to as low as 11,754.00 as per our Technical Analysis. Returning from the commemorating the Unification Day, was not of much consolation.
Italy40: Had also shed most of its gains from Wednesday, at the time of print the Futures were spotted trading up 0.05% at 21,235.00 with highs recorded at 21,337.50 and lows at 21,187.00. However, as the day progresses further downside may be observed to lows reaching 21,057.00 and perhaps even back to 21,013.00.
UK100: Has been under pressure coupled with the progress or lack of it with the Brexit process. As Prime Ministers Johnson plans are securitized some uptrends were registered around the time print. Up 0.04% at 7,048.8 ranging between 7,044.8 – 7,099.5 volatility is abounding.
- ASIAN MARKET: Was also bearish in its outlook with China still closed for National Day Celebrations and residents in Hong Kong protests adding to the uncertainties
HongKong50: Fell after managing to gross up to highs at 26,174.0 tumbling to lows of 25,567.0 before knee-jerking up slightly. Until China resumes market and the is some solution to address the unrest in Hong Kong with one protestor shot dead and face masks banned. Abrupt swings down then up will be noted.
Malaysia 70: Remains locked in a trading range between 13,917.00 and lows at 13,771.00 breakouts beyond this scope for today are limited by the time of print. It was seen hopeful up 0.08% around 13,806.48
Commodities: Likely to remain mixed
Oil: With Saudi Arabia resuming production after the Attacks oil prices are looking blissful. However, sudden bouts of violence in Iraq continues to weigh on prices. Ahead of the day Baker Hughes Rig count and talks of OPEC further cuts may have oil traders attempting to monetize in profit-taking ahead of the weekend. Trading was observed between 52.27 – 52.91. The upside to 53.00 or downside to 51.91 may be registered.
Gold: From recent drops below 1,500. The safe-haven metal managed to correct itself seen trading between 1,510.75 – 1,516.15. If there are any signs of alarm upsides to 1,520+ may be noted.
The DXY was seen downtrodden heading deep. As market participants prepare to close their books for the weekend coupled with a perception that the anticipated NFP report may disappoint just as the Automatic Processing Data disappointed. Consumer confidence is shaken by WE WORK and HP’s announcement to fire a considerable amount of their workforce.
- USD/JPY: The Greenback lost its luster to the Japanese Yen. Sinking from highs near 108.00 a few days ago to range between 106.66 – 106.93 further downsides may be in view if more traders opt to park for the weekend by acquiring more of the safe-haven currency.
- EUR/USD: The EUR attempts to hold on to recent gains from the previous close of 1.0964 up 0.13% upside to back up to 1.0989 is expected.
- GBP/USD: Despite Prime Ministers Johnson’s resounding proposal for a “SOFT BREXIT” Analysts allude to a high chance of a “HARD-BREXIT”. However, with the USD under pressure today the pound uptrends in a range between 1.2312 – 1.2357
Oscillation in range persists with very little room for extreme surprises.
The Crypto arena is also pressured to the downside as spread betters confused by ongoing regulatory rhetoric and slowing of the global economy, prefer to sell off or hedge with other assets for the time being.
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