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Fed Rate Hike & Oil Inventories Drives Market

It’s all about the Fed Rate Hike and Oil today. Among the high impact economic reports due for the day from the UK’s Consumer Price Index CPI, US Existing Home Sales, there are two other highly anticipated ones, i.e. The FOMC’ Fed Interest rate decision at 19:00 GMT followed by the Press meeting at 19:30 GMT which is likely to set the pace for the near future trends. The tone is also going to reveal just how much influence President Trump’s criticism or warnings against quick successions of rate hikes impact the Fed’s considerations. Inevitably higher rates contribute to making the USD too strong.
The anticipation is to raise rates from 2.25% to 2.50% an increase of 25 basis point. Currently, only 68.9% of market participants believe rate would be hiked a drop from 80% where it stood for a while.
Wednesday’s Crude oil inventories from the EIA is also on tap. Yesterday, the API reported a build of 3.450million barrels the news did not fare well in an already oil saturated market causing prices to plummet to close at 46.60 earlier at EU market open it fell 0.09% before gaining momentum.
Oil: Is likely going to pick up till the report is released at 15:30 GMT. At least to 46.97 then 47.15 before losing ground depending also on the rate hike.
Gold: Is being used as a hedge today however remains volatile between 1,249.40 – 1,255.30.
US 30: will likely is also likely to play on the Fed rate decision climbing now to 23, 779.50 then to 23,885
Global Markets:
Markets are trying to have a run before the US releases it rate decision. A high dollar market trading against the USD expensive which could weigh on stocks and pushing Emerging Markets to the brink.

US 30: Is to be seen ranging from 23,563.0 – 23,826.5 any breach up or down this would come as a reaction to the rate hike. likely to play on the Fed rate decision to climbing towards 23,779.50 and then maybe to 23,885.
Germany 30: Bullish at the EU open up 0.47% at the time of print 10:00GMT and traveling from10,749.33 – 10,799.06 hoping to take on gains for profit taking.
Italy 40: Was spotted 0.84% up to trade from 18,450.00 – 18,880.00 ahead of the day’s events. Jubilating, over the EU’s acceptance of the Italian budget.
UK100: Even the FTSE 100 forgot about its Brexit pains to recoup some losses. Upside to 6,765.80 if breached upside to 6,774 may be possible before knee-jerking set in.

Commodities:

Oil: Is likely going to pick up till the report is released at 15:30 GMT. At least to 46.97 then 47.15 before losing ground depending also on the rate hike.

Gold: Is being used as a hedge today however remains volatile between 1,249.40 – 1,255.30.

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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/politics-news/in-nodeal-brexit-eu-would-keep-trade-flowing-for-limited-time-1409200
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/italy-and-eu-reach-budget-deal.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/18/fed-expected-to-move-forward-with-rate-hike-despite-trumps-scolding.html

"#SantaRally" Is A No-Show, Markets Are Still In The Woods

The Market is still not out of the woods. Perhaps #SantaRally may just not come this Christmas, as per Monday’s Post, global growth concerns amid Brexit and Oil dynamics plagues on the sentiments of worn out market participants. Following a “Bloody Monday session. Almost all online shops remain dovish.
Nonetheless, Daytraders are becoming apt at developing short-term strategies to filter through the “Noise” meanwhile long-term prognosis remains murkier as long as global uncertainties weigh across all asset classes.
Safe-havens (CHF, JPY & GOLD) are looking blissful, attracting investors who wish to hedge their positions.
Ahead of the day’s economic data releases from the German Business Climate, US Building permits, RBA meeting minutes and Tuesday’s weekly API US oil stockpile report the markets are volatile with most assets in the comfort zone as per the RSI trading in bearish territory.
Global Markets:
Markets are hopelessly down trotting. However, investors are counting on corrections up for most of the stocks in the EU and US session following a bearish session in Asia.

US 30: Was unable to climb to 24,200 as projected yesterday hit by declining tech stocks the shares dropped to their lowest in over 14 months. Closing at 23,685, traders are hopeful for a small correction today, which could be seen manifesting. likely to trade between 23,669.0 – 23,820.0
Germany 30: closed lower at 10,772.2 Monday. Today attempting to shake off the negativity trading from 10,713.28 – 10,830.50.
Italy 40: Recovers from its hits opening at 18,467.50 below its previous close of 18,721.00. despite up trending at the time of print 09:00 to 18,552.50 upside movement is seen limited to 18,690.00 with knee-jerks expected.
UK100: Was further struck down to range between 6,712.34 – 6,750.75 ASOS share prices plummeted yesterday alerting to a perhaps low key Christmas shopping undertones.

FX Markets:

EUR/USD: With The USD sliding head of the Fed rate hike tomorrow Wednesday 19th December, The EUR climbs 0.25% vs the US at 1.1375 from lows of 1.1337 and heading to 1.1384.
GBP/USD: GBP managed to come off lows at 1.25 crossing over, up 0.20% trading between 1.2611-1.2662
USD/JPY: The pair continued to trade sideways dropping below the 113.30 by the time of print the JPY had gained more traction heading to 112.40 from 112.80

Commodities:

Oil: Despite supply disruptions by some oil producers and intended cuts by OPEC+ The US shale production is not slowing down. Oil prices did not recover. Ahead of the API prices fell to close 50.20. However, slid even more to 48.15 and set to range up to 49.89, whether further upside could be seen remains to be determined by the stockpile levels. A further downside is probably the mode. of the day likely touching the upper side of 47.99.
Gold: Is back investors favorite safe-haven rally towards previously resistance levels. Today aiming to breach the 1,253.70 resistance level perhaps just to touch the 1,254 levels from 1,249.00 ranging up and down 100-150 pips. If the US data beat market expectations we could see GOLD suck in a range just around 1,250.50 -1251.99

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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-tuesday-1408211
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/plans-to-break-the-current-brexit-impasse-could-land-theresa-may-in-even-deeper-trouble.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-drops-4-percent-on-oversupply-equities-sell-off-idUSKBN1OH03J?il=0

Another Week Before Christmas In A Global Market Jungle

Another week before Christmas, in a Global Market Jungle. The market turned red post-Friday. However, with lingering progress between US & China, coupled with a decline in global growth which has not spared mainland China, investors remain cautious.
Most traders and investors would be paying attention to development between the two big world economies as well as a lookout on the status of Oil, in regards to supply and demand adjustment. Furthermore, the US rate hike on Wednesday is on center stage.
While others wait on the EU CPI to gauge the trends of the EUR vs other currencies. The BIS warns of further downside in the upcoming year.
Other market participants with mid to long-term positions will also focus on the Brexit progress amid anticipating the BOE rate decision on Thursday.
Global Markets:
Market are seen mixed a tone that originated from the Asian Market. However, EU markets may see some more downtime before rising as ASOS the Online retail plummeted it gave a caveat that pre-Christmas shopping maybe slowing. This may way on other US Tech stocks pulling holding the US 30 and US TECH stock down President Trump’s threats to shut down the Gov’t does not resound well to investors either

US 30: By the time of print 08:00GMT was seen at 24,100.51 attempting to come off lows from 24,033.80 Analyst expect a climb to at least 24,200 and maybe back to 24,238
Germany 30: Woke up seen at 10,867.5 up 0.22% at the time of print ranging between 10,799 and 10,918 as some wait for the German Bundesbank Monthly Report to decipher future trends if possible.
Italy 40: With all the progress with the Italian budget. Market participants thought the asset will rally however uncertainties weigh. Trading down 0.82% from 18,807.50 to 18,745. Upside trends may be seen later this afternoon. Hopefully back to the day’s resistance.
UK100: Gave up gains from 6,836.87 to 6,829 further downside to 6,820 could be plausible before any uptrends are tacked on as PM Thresa May battles before parliament on the way forward with Brexit downplaying a second referendum.

FX Markets:

EUR/USD: The pair were bullish after sinking during the weekend. Up to 1.1315 at the time of print 08:25GMT and aiming for 1.1350 and beyond to 1.1395 if the EU CPI meets market expectation.
GBP/USD: Became bullish, up 0.10% at 1.2593 heading for 1.2605 and beyond likely before mid-day.
USD/JPY: The USD tries to be resilient towards the JPY, However, the pair is seen trading sideways with the JPY gaining. Seen at 113.9 up 0.01% downside to 113.30 could be possible before other support levels are marked for the day.

Commodities:

Oil: Friday drop in the Baker Hughes Rig count from 1,075 to 1,071 and a generally agreed on intention to cut production and exports to the US by Saudi led OPEC and Co. supported prices. However, it is likely to oscillate between 51.38 – 51.78 trading in and out of gains. As political rhetoric erupts between Saudi and Iran. Saudi and Turkey.
Gold: As the safe havens, JPY, CHF gain favor, Gold adds on to gains trading from 1,239.45 – 1,242.82

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Related Links:
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/retail-stress-roils-european-stocks-1723272
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/16/turkish-foreign-minister-on-khashoggi-and-saudi-arabia.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/bis-report-global-stock-market-sell-off-not-an-isolated-event.html

A Tempestuous Trading Day Amid Growth Lags

Following Thursday’s tempestuous trading day market participants are not so eager to lunch out as uncertainties lurk. While some explore the possibility of gaining in Emerging Markets.
The Market resorted to general selloff trading sideways in bearish territory for most asset classes.
Meanwhile, the EU 27 member states, refused to give PM Theresa May face on the Irish border backstop which is generating a lot of stumbling blocks for the Brexit. Pushing the finalization date to 21^st January 2019
The slowdown in Chinese Industrial Production 5.4% vs estimated 5.9% and disappointing retail sales coming in at 8.1% vs the predicted 8.8% as well as downbeat reports from the EU weighed on investor sentiment.
Despite the dismal mood Christmas shoppers are in a shopping mood and increasing individual share value.
Global Markets:
Global Markets are in reverse mode for most of the EU trading day.

US 30: Was unable to climb above the 24,700k settle at the previous day’s highs of 24,610. Then plummeting 1.04 % at the time of print 08:00GMT. It is expected to stay in a range from 24,610 down to 24,260. Volatile around 24,350 overall US30 lost about 300 pips overnight. As growth stagnation plagues.
Germany 30: is set in a range from highs of 10,918.5 not being able to cross the 11,000 levels. Analysts expect a downward trend to 10,730
Italy 40: Is also trading down at 1,880 by 08:00 GMT the asset is expected to selloff to 18,735 and beyond. Support and resistance level are as follows: 18,732.50 – 18,900.00.
UK100: Down 0.94% Trading from 6,827.75- 6,788.60 and oscillating between 6,823.50-6,812.00

FX Markets:

EUR/USD: With the ECB not raising rates till mid-2019 and ending the QE stimulus program, the EUR is losing footing. Some analysts think we could see the pair end the day around 1.1280 by the time of print down 0.38% still above 1.13.
GBP/USD: With the Brexit jittering the pound gives up recent gains from 1.2666 towards 1.2558. by late EU afternoon when the US begins to release their economic reports.
USD/JPY: As some sort to seek shelter the USD fell to the JPY down 0.04% at 113.57 by print. There is a tendency to move lower to 113.20 although it ranges between highs and lows between 113.42 – 113.67

Commodities:

Oil: Deliberations at the IEA meeting welcomed South Africa formally as an associate. However fine tuning supply cuts to augment price stability to the upside is proving to be a delicate affair. Saudi Arabia announced it plans to stop exports to the US. Oil rose to 52.95 before shedding 0.53% to 52.31 and aiming to drop further to 52.24 maybe to the upside of 51.
GOLD: Is currently stuck between 1,247.30 and 1,241.30 down 037% and lurking around 1,242.

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Related Links:
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks–us-futures-fall-amid-fears-of-slowing-global-growth-1721763
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-friday-1721719
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/china-reports-november-fixed-asset-investment-industrial-production.html

Cordial Interaction Promotes Market Pacification

The optimism sparked by cordial interaction between China and the US leads to significant headways or events leading to some sort of “market pacification” Assets classes have been seen trading in their comfort zones near resistant levels, with hopes of a breakthrough which might not be likely.
A loopy trading day ahead for traders laced with short termed opportunities for the day and perhaps the formation of new bullish trends ahead of the weekend.
Global Markets:
In tandem with yesterday’s projections, in which we witnessed all asset classes manifest themselves reaching suggested targets. Today most of the global assets are likely to oscillate in a loop. Warranting some Zig-Zag and Scalping strategies if known at best working with Bollinger bands and MACD could be helpful.

US 30: Climbed passed the 24,610 resistance line some analyst set for the day, to nearly 24,723 before readjusting to 24,590. Up 0.10 by the time of print 08:41GMT. It is expected to aim back to 24,750 albeit a frustrating climb.
Germany 30: Acted as predicted surging to 10,985.5. However, was unable to touch the 11,000 psychological level. Some Analysts think this could be reachable today however it is likely going to range between 10,887.5 – 10,985.5 and losing steam perhaps due to the EU Summit Meeting and ECB rate hike on tap. In which the interest may not be hiked rather forward guidance may be the deciding factor for the assets direction.
Italy 40: AS EU shares gain momentum on trade hopes. While Italy summiting a 2.04% budget deficit to the EU commission for consideration has cooled investors nerves. Up 0.16% at 18,980 aiming for 19,207.80 as new resistance levels.
UK100: Brexit is really taking the asset for a roller coaster ride. As it attempts to reach the 7k which might not feasible. Trading from 6,910.25 – 6,865.00.

FX Markets:

EUR/USD: Except rallying past the 1.1320 targets to 1.1373 the pair seem to be caught in a tug of war between Wednesday range of 1.1307 – 1.1400.
GBP/USD: The Pound managed to tack on some more gains. PM Theresa May managed to challenge the no-confident vote. Her boldness resounds in the currency pair trading up 0.21% at 1.2656 and destined to move from lows of 1.2610 to highs of 1.2686
USD/JPY: Once again Wednesday’s trending path dominates. With the pair hoovering around113.45 in a path between 113.20 – 113.50.

Commodities:

Oil: Ahead of today’s IEA Oil report. Oil prices are jumpy in the loop from lows of 50.91 to highs of 51.56 depending on the results abrupt swings could be seen.
GOLD: is set to travel between these boundaries. 1,248.70 – 1,251.70 perhaps to the downside, as some market participants move to riskier assets like the USD

In the backdrop, while some traders and investors are clouded with a slue and pace of events, others are fishing for short-term profitable assets like shares of retailers Apple, Amazon, eBay, and co are all likely to rally as shoppers make a dash for Christmas gifts for the upcoming holidays.
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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-shares-extend-rally-as-italy-hopes-offset-brexit-clouds-1405077
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-thursday-1720311

Boosted Market Sentiments On US-China Truce Developments

The reinforced news of more ease in the US-China relationship boosted market sentiment. Reports of President Trump proposing to step into the case against Ms. Victoria Meng CFO of Hawuei if it would help soothe the trade and tariffs negotiations. Made investors a bit more confident in taking their bullish positions.
In the UK, Brexit saga plagues. PM May is said to face a “No-Confidence Vote” Market participants are concerned this may disrupt future trends. However today both the UK100 and GBP are hawkish.
Global Markets:
All markets are mostly bullish as progress between the US-China relations advances in a positive light

US 30: The asset fell to 24,336 when rumors of the Trump administration attempt to pass bills which could punish companies in the tech industry that do not comply. However, this morning its supported with uptrends expected at the time of print 9:00 GMT it was at 24,466.5 with resistance set at 24,610 upon reaching it the next level should reach 24,680 and beyond by mid-day.
Germany 30: Marches on from 10,826 at time of print set for 10,900 then aiming for 11,000 as the next resistance level.
Italy 40: As Italy and the EU begin to see eye to eye resolution of the budget issue could be at hand. The asset was seen trading up between 18,622.50 and 18,777.50 upsides to 18,800 or even to 19,000 may be obtained sooner than thought.
UK100: The no-confident vote against PM. Theresa May drives sentiment somewhat with the UK100 shooting to the stars. From 6,817.0 heading to 6,880, once reach Analyst believe it may attempt to make a run for the 7k levels.

FX Markets:

EUR/USD: The pair remains supported at the time of print 09:00GMT it was at 1.1320 come from lows of 1.1307 and aiming for 1.1400.
GBP/USD: Is very bullish up 0.34% at 1.2532 trending to and fro 1.2640.
USD/JPY: The USD got it mojo back against the Yen, Trading between113.33-113.52

Commodities:

Oil: Despite US increased output Tuesday’s API revealed a decline of nearly 10.5million barrels, this and supply disruption by Libyan militias send Oil price rallying at the time of print it WTI was at 52.09 coming from 51.92 and targeting 52.40 if it crosses it we should be looking at 53 for the next resistance.
GOLD: Cautious Traders are still keeping a close eye on developments and thus keeping the precious metal nearby for hedging. Trading on familiar ground seen in recent times between 1,247.20 – 1,251.50.