Market Participants Relieved & Cautiously Bullish

Market participants relieved & cautiously bullish. Following some progress in the US-China negotiations via phone late Monday. Asian shares shined with the optimism seen reflected on EU Markets while the US 30 gains some footing for uptrends.
Ahead of the day’s economic events namely; (UK Claimant Count Change, EU German ZEW Economic, and the US economic data releases) are likely to render support to the GBP, EUR and later the USD. If estimates beat market expectations as predicted.
Meanwhile, PM May abandoned the intended Parliamentary vote on Brexit yesterday claiming it could have caused more division.
Global Markets:
Global Stocks are mostly bullish today, However, ranging in narrow ranges between gains and losses in a classical Tuesday Market Tango. Watch out for trend reversals in mid-US session

  • US 30: Is set to open bullishly after recent routs. Trading sideways between 24,351.0 – 24,490.0 eyes remain on Trumps administration for concrete resolute with EU partners and China on tariffs. Further upside to 24,600 is possible.
  • Germany 30: Woke up strong but fizzles ahead of the day’s economic events. By the time of print 08:00 GMT it was at 10,707.04 with upside trends to 10,740 could be seen before midday. Once the 10,740 thresholds are crossed uptrends to 10,800 becomes the next resistance.
  • Italy 40: Although budgetary issues remain unresolved the asset climbs from lows of 18,428.5 heading for 18,570 it first resistance followed by 18,615.40 as next levels to reach.
  • UK100: Turned hawkish trying to fly to 6,778 from its close yesterday at 6,721.54. In case the 6,778 levels are passed an attempt to touch 6,820.14 is the next level.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: The EUR rose against the USD up 0.24% trading from 1.1351 heading 1.1390 and may test the 1.14 level
  • GBP/USD: Another averted disaster in the Brexit saga brought the GBP from 20-month lows around 1.2563 to current levels 1.2626 and aiming for 1.2640. As PM May heads to the Brussels to gain a better standing in the Brexit negotiations.
  • USD/JPY: The USD is still dovish to the JPY sliding 0.25% from 113.36 to 113.06 further downside to 112.90 is very possible.

Commodities:

  • Oil: A Surprise cut of 1.2 million barrels boosted prices Friday and supported WTI oil on Monday. However, we see prices ranging in an out of gains between 50.72 – 51.31 ahead of today API Oil stockpiles report. Market participants may attempt to profit-take, sending prices to their possible highest today. 51.80 or beyond before receding
  • GOLD: Retains its reputation attracting cautious investors. Bullish up 0.37% ranging from 1,248.95 – 1,254.55

Apple Inc was hammered after losing the legal case against Qualcomm. Share plummeted. As the ruling prohibited Apple from selling models a 6 up to X. Apple’s legal team quickly appealed, pushing stock prices up. aiming for 171.80 when the US market opens. 
Most of the FAANG stocks are also seen bullish. As the Health and Tech sectors regain footing.
In other news unrest in France could become the next focal point with budgetary constraints on the EU.
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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-tuesday-1403378
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/brexit-what-happens-next.html
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/apple-vs-qualcomm-how-can-one-us-company-block-another-in-china.html

The Market Is On Frail Knees Praying For Mercy!

The Market’s week starts with frail knees. Hit hard from Friday’s roil. US-China’s 90-day truce became turbulent with the arrest of Huawei CFO Ms. Meng. Market participants associate her detention as part of the tactics in the ongoing trade tiffs.
Traders sentiments have been bearish and cautious in anticipation of any unfavorable news from the US or China and praying for mercy in the rout.
Elsewhere eyes are turned to the UK ahead of the Brexit Parliamentary vote or hearing coupled with some high steaks impact. i.e. result in another referendum, general election and even change of government amid what could be a painful defeat for PM May. The UK 100 and GBP are bowing to pressure.
Meanwhile, Australia’s watchdog asks for more clamp down on Facebook & Google hammering their share prices Alibaba on the other hands steps up to take more control of its films department Alibaba Picture group. Stock prices were little change, however, long-term, uptrends are forecasted to resume soon.
Global Markets:
Friday US market closed low sentiments pushed Asian Markets to down, while EU markets follow suit.

  • US 30: Was seen down 0.32% at 24,353.5 with a potential of falling to 24,162.5
  • Germany 30: drops 0.66% by the time of print 08:48 GMT trading from 10,740 heading to 10,673.26.
  • Italy 40: Tried to catch some up winds in the early EU open unsuccessfully. Sliding 0.49% from 18,670.00 to 18,522.50.
  • UK100: Brexit weighs heavily around its neck. The upside movement may only come following Tuesday’s conclusions.  For now, the asset is likely to trade sideways between 6,782.62 – 6,742.50 at the time of print it was down 0.50%

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: With the USD Slipping on risk aversion ahead of the ECB meeting the EUR rallies 0.28% to 1.1411 with 1.1444 as it upcoming resistance level very feasible.
  • GBP/USD: In the face of a possible “Hard Brexit” or complete abandonment of it, investors are fleeing from the pair like it was some contaminated disease. From 1.2758 – 1.2693 and lower.
  • USD/JPY: The USD was seeing losing footing against the Yen earlier however regained some footing. Trading in and out of gains between 112.24 – 112.75.

Commodities:

  • Oil: remains politically charged with finalizations of OPEC & OPEC’s agreement to cut 1.2 million barrels of daily oil productions looming. The volatility will see oil prices ranging between 51.20 – 52.82 a great opportunity for scalping.
  • GOLD: Remains the default safe haven attracting cautious inventors or those who chose to hedge their positions. Trading from 1,251.50 – 1,256.30

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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/politics-news/eus-top-court-says-uk-can-unilaterally-stop-brexit-1402490
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-monday-1716335

Friday Profit-Taking & Market Respite After Massive Selloff

Friday profit-taking and market respite forces market participants to reconsider their positions after the massive selloff.
The viral arrest on Ms. Sabrina Meng, CFO, of Huawei was seen by seasoned investors as a distraction or addition to volatility. Since here detention was on the 1st of December and not yesterday.
The USD remains broadly supported as the GBP and EUR attempt to climb up ahead of Today’s US Non- Farm Payrolls (NFP) and EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports. Analysts think their upside movement is limited to current resistance levels i.e. 1.1385 for the EUR/USD & 1.2796 for the GBP/USD pair.
Furthermore, market participants are paying close attention for further development in the OPEC & OPEC + agreement to curb production and Oil prices. Russia contribution beckoned.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report on Thursday missed expectations, 179k vs the forecasted 196k. The apparent weakness in the USD was compensated for by a good ISM number and prospects of a rate hike remain on tap.
Crude oil inventories reported revealed a drop of almost
7.4million barrels for the week, however, with Gasoline inventories swelling 1.699 million barrels’ prices remained under pressure.
Global Markets:
Global stocks recover from the dramatic selloff triggered Thursday. Asia closed relatively bullish. EU stocks seek to carry on hawkish wings at least until other news halts up trends

  • US 30: Although with a dovish outlook the asset oscillates between 24,706.0 – 24,978.5 after slipping nearly 800 pips
  • UK100: Is poised on making up for recent selloff yet below the 7k psychological levels. Up 1.47% at the time of print 09:50GMT. Trading between 6,739.25 – 6,815.56
  • Italy40: is up 0.98% rallying from 18,762.49-18,867.60 or beyond
  • Germany 30: Following up from Thursday the asset did fall to 10,810.98 in line with our projections it is recovery from an almost 4% drop. Up 0.99% at 10,917.73 heading for 10,925.80 & beyond.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: trades in a range from 1.1360 – 1.1383 attempting to stage a comeback
  • GBP/USD: remains volatile swing between 1.2734 – 1.2795 with a desire to cross the 1.28 resistance line.
  • USD/JPY: Upon reaching 112.83 the USD begins to gain traction up 0.14% vs the Yen at 112.84 aiming for 112.93 or 113.

Commodities:

  • Oil: Remains politically charged trading sideways between 50.61 – 51.76 in anticipation of a propeller for now gravity is heavy ahead of the Baker Hughes Rig Count.
  • GOLD: As uncertainties prevail some investors are finding the precious metal attractive. Gold was seen at 1,245.65 targeting 1,246.60 as it resistance.

The Five companies reporting their earnings today may not have any significant impact on the market.
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Related Links:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/opec-meeting-saudi-arabia-and-russia-look-to-impose-production-cuts.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/mays-brexit-vote-could-plunge-the-uk-into-fresh-political-chaos.html
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/opec-summit-preview-supply-cuts-consensus-is-anything-but-guaranteed-200205048
 

Market in Carnage or Having A Bloodbath in Oil?

Market participants woke to up to a fully charged market in carnage, what some analysts refer to as a bloodbath. Following Wednesday’s US mourning day for the Late 41st President George H.W. Bush.

The Economic Calendar is packed with a deluge of events which are going to keep Traders and investors on tiptoes for the better part of the day. After which, some clarity is hoped to be gained for Oil prices, and the strength of the US economy etc.

The Crude oil inventories, ISM, jobless claims and ADP reports are all on the docket today.

TECH Stocks and Industrials have been hit hard and expected to remain dovish

Global Markets:

Asian Markets closed in negatively, following and the carnage is expected to grapple the EU markets till late afternoon, maybe even pulling US stocks down. EU stocks wobble on contracting Industrial production and uncertainties

  • US 30: Was unable to recover from recent declines down 3.10% at the time of print from 25,773.12 to 25,027.07 with a further downside to 25,009  a very near possibility which when reached will cave in to open the door for a drop to 24+K
  • UK100’s plight has been clouded falling further into a bearish mode, down 1.94% at 6,787.50 from 6,874.03 and maybe to 6,787.75 as the ECJ announces the delivery of ruling on Brexit issue by 10th December a day before the UK hold is a parliamentary vote on the topic.
  • Italy40: In tandem with Yesterday’s prognosis the share prices continue to bleed shedding 2.02% from 19,142.50 to 18,932.50 with room to touch support levels at 18,922.50
  • Germany 30: Plummeted 2.37% in the past 24% from 11,074.29 to 10,899.16 further downside could be seen before any consistent uptrends are reached.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: The pair was spotted down 0.06% in a tight range between 1.1322 – 1.1352 at the time of print 09:00GMT. If the reports from the US disappoint the EUR could climb up to the resistance levels of Monday 1.1399 and beyond.
  • GBP/USD: Jumps in and out of losses between 1.2700 – 1.2753 waiting for any clear signal to gauge each others strength. GBP is likely to take advantage of any weakness in the USD to rise back to the 1.28 level if it can.
  • USD/JPY: After touching the 113.24 crossing the 113.15 marks predicted yesterday USD loss footing to the Yen down 0.49% heading to 112.60

The DXY is little changed staying in the familiar territory between 96.96 – 97.20

 

Commodities:

  • Oil: With OPEC Meeting in Vienna on tap today ahead of crude oil inventories report volatility is expected to be high but price pressured downward from 53.28 to 51.30 downside to 50.90 is possible.
  •  GOLD: Although is safe haven investors are looking at ways to profit from the volatility in the riskier assets running to Gold when things seem unclear the asset in choppy jumping in and out of gains between 1,240.05 – 1,246.25

All US & EU Tech shares, as well as retailers, are down in a bloodbath as the Chinese US trade escapade rages on.

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Related Links:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-shares-fall-as-huawei-arrest-fuels-fresh-trade-worries-ericsson-up-1712709

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/oil-markets-opec-global-stock-markets-in-focus.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/market-sell-off-set-to-continue-as-dow-futures-get-hit.html

Melancholic Market Day Assets Remain Bearish

The Mood Wednesday could be prudently tagged as a “Melancholic Market Day”,  as the US prepares for the funeral rites of the Late and Former President George Bush. Wall Street is set to be “closed”. Meanwhile, President Trump’s comments on the US-Chinese Trade ceasefire was not convincing enough for investors. The US 30 plummeted nearly 600pips Tuesday.

All Global stocks are down. With most assets trading in the comfort zones between the 70 & 30 RSI Resistance and Support Levels.

Global Markets:

Analysts view the day’s trading as capricious with the CAD Interest rate on tap, amid suspense created due to lack of the Crude Oil inventories report ahead of Thursdays OPEC meeting.

  • US 30: After a dramatic fall it is likely that sideways trading with abrupt swings will be the mood of the day. Trading between 25,006.5 – 25,160.0
  • UK100: Has been bearish losing steam below the 7 k levels. Trading down 1.04 % at the time of print 08:57 GMT from 6,970.75 -6,927.2.
  • Italy40: Has been lingering between 19,097.50 – 19,290.0 down 0.35% and likely to remain so for the majority of the day.unless the Italian budget adjustment is approved by the EU commission, at which point share price will test new resistance levels. perhaps to 11,390.
  • Germany 30: After a 0.80% drop from 11,245.5 to 11,235.5 Investors a wondering if the support levels of 11,145.5 could stick.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: Remains undeceive and at the whim of today’s economic events. The pair trades sideways from 1.1317 – 1.1418.
  • GBP/USD: Brexit weighs on sentiment GBP after plummeting to 1.2717 gained a mini flight back up 0.15% to 1.2736 and attempts to aim for 1.2750
  • USD/JPY: The interesting turn of affairs is the USD is recently seen trying to act as a safe haven. USD rose 0.20% to 113.00 and likely heading to 113.15 or beyond.
  • The DXY gives clear indications of a rally above 97 levels trading bullishly between 96.96 – 97.20.

In light of Tuesday Post, markets watched in horror as the FAANG group stocks took a beating.

 

Commodities:

  • Oil: The API reported WTI to be at 5.360 million barrels forcing the price to cringe a bit. With the Crude Oil Inventories report, pros pond Oil traders, trade with blindfolds on till tomorrow. Oscillating between 52.17 – 53.03 down 0.49%. Any confirmation of supply cuts from Canada or elsewhere may boost prices up.
  • GOLD: sheds gains from yesterday to trade 0.41% down from 1,244.75 – 1,238.75

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Related Links:

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-wednesday-1398911

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/italy-honeymoon-will-end-in-2-3-months-former-prime-minister-warns.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

US – China Truce & Market Reactions

Another Tango Tuesday for markets. The US-China trade truce seems not to resound well with all investors as details remain murky and the EU considers the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on Car, Aluminium, and steel.
Corrections from yesterday’s uptrends are inevitable with a light day on economic events. Market participants will be looking at today’s American Petroleum Institute (API), for a gauge on weekly American Stock Piles.
By EU open Asian shares were seen falling as the excitement surrounding the 90- day Sino –US truce fades. Which is likely to weigh on EU Stocks and Wall Street. With rumors of a recession in the US economy as short-term bonds rise and long-term yields plummet.
Global Markets:

  • US 30: was seen down 0.56% at 25,701.0 perhaps heading to support levels of 25,610
  • UK100: Dropped 0.21% from 7,096.94 to 7,047.50 with possible downside to 7,046.25 or more.
  • Italy40: Lost all gains nose diving 0.16% to 19,572.00 heading to 19,534 .40 as Italy present a revised budget plan for EU consideration.
  • Germany 30: Was also seen 0.56% down from 11,469.5 to 11,404 further down-side movement to 11,385 could be the next test.

FX Markets:

  • The DXY displays withdrawal symptoms down 0.45%. Heading to 96.55.
  • EUR/USD: climbs 0.32% at the time of print 08:23GMT. Aiming for 1.1399 or even 1.1404.
  • GBP/USD: GBP was buoyant following comments from an EU court advisor who relayed that the UK could cancel Brexit without seeking permission. The Pair was 0.72% up trading between above the 1.28 handle and heading for 1.2820 and beyond.
  • USD/JPY: Safe havens are back and the Yen rose against the USD which was down 0.75% at 112.82 support levels downside to 112.70 may be attained before the end of the day.

Commodities:

Oil: WTI continues to rally ahead of today’s API report. News of Iran leaving OPEC begins to trickle down. Oil gains 1.72% to 53.86 and more upside to perhaps 54.00 before any downward correction kick in later likely due to oversupply concerns in the US.
GOLD: Rose 0.42% to 1,244.80 and heading for 1,246.00.
Meanwhile, Apple halts production on new iPhone. Apple Inc. stocks are expected to fall at US open. Perhaps having a negative effect on all the FAANG stocks.
Cryptocurrencies:
A quick overview reveals the Crypto arena is down trotting with regulatory clump downs 83% of all token including BTC are either trading sideways or crawling in bearishness.
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Related Links:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/brexit-eu-top-court-is-set-to-rule-on-article-50.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/state-of-european-tech-2018-record-year-for-start-ups.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/forex-markets-dollar-the-fed-in-focus.html