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Black Friday Sales & More Market Shenenigains

In the wake of Black Friday Sales and more Market shenanigans coupled with Japan and US Thanksgiving commemorations. Tech stocks, such as AMAZON, EBAY, FACEBOOK, ALIBABA, were observed recovering in tandem in premarket With rumors of Violence in Alabama USA, and planned strikes at AMAZON’s branch in Germany. It still remains questionable if Black Friday sales could provide some refuge to falling tech stocks for a short while.

The ECB in its meeting Thursday confirmed its intentions to go ahead in phasing out its Quantitative easing policy. While The EU governing body of 27 member’s states prepares for a meeting or summit in the deliberation on the drafted Brexit plans. Market participants are anxiously awaiting to learn if the drafted proposal will be endorsed or rejected.

Global Stocks: Italian Banks actions bolstered EU stocks again, together with the Tech stocks. whether Italy’s stubbornness in addressing its budget issue will avert further instabilities remains to be seen in the upcoming days. Meanwhile, the US stocks are trapped in a bearish cycle in what would be a very short trading day.

Germany30: Is in a recovery mood, heading north. By the time of print at 08:48GMT it had already crossed the 1^st resistance level which was 11,184.80, oscillating between 11,126.28 – 11,205.89. Reversals by mid-day will not be surprising.
UK100: As per Thursday’s post confirming our findings the share prices seem to be hawkish after plummeting to its support levels yesterday. Currently up 0.34% trading from 6,948.39 – 6,988.36. It would not be a surprise should it break out into the 7k levels.
Italy 40: In sync with the budget saga, the stock price has become sentimental reacting sensitively to any developments or constraints. Albeit bullish and up 0.74% ranging from 18,615.00 – 18,777.50
US 30: Remains bearish oscillating between 24,427.0 – 24,322.0 down 0.34% by the time of print.

Currencies:

GBP/USD: Seems to be circling around 1.2927 -1.2771 around the same “mulberry bush” after gaining a short-lived flight Thursday.
EUR/USD: Prognosis of the EUR was on point. After nearing the 1.1426 level set for yesterday it gave up gains this morning driven by disappointing Manufacturing PMI and service PMI from Germany as well as the EU shedding 0.40% to range between 1.1421-1.1356.
USD/JPY: The pair has changed very little in the past 24 hours trading sideways as the USD gives way to the Yen from 113.01-112.78.

Commodities:

Oil: Plagued by oversupply issues and lack of conclusive forward guidance on the number of barrels OPEC and Co- may agree to cut to curb prices ahead of it 6 December, OPEC meeting, and today’s Baker Hughes Rig Count. Oil prices remain vulnerable, trading down 1.75%. The day’s highs stand at 54.11 with it support set at 52.86 further downside movement to 51+ by late EU afternoon will not be a surprise. At least dropping between 3%- 4%.
XAU/USD: The precious metal let out some steam yet, remains in familiar range down 0.44% between1,228.61-1,221.61

Cryptocurrencies:

The carnage in the crypto arena is ongoing BTC sheds nearly 25% in 7 days and out of almost 2,504 Tokens, only 0.2% were found bullish today. Could this be a good time to close our eyes and buy back into them or there remains more room for it to go down?

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https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks–us-futures-fall-as-black-friday-retail-sales-kickoff-1698415

US Thanksgiving and Market Reactions

With the US Market closed for Thanksgiving day, The USD already seems tipsy. Paving the way for other currencies and the safe havens to climb. Head of the publication of ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting.

The See-saw movement documented in the post at the beginning of the week persist.

Global Stocks: The smirk was wiped of the face of EU stocks which rallied Wednesday. Asian shares dropped as growth concerns weighed on market participant’s sentiments.

Germany30: Could not hold on to yesterday’s gains for too long. Dipping from 11,269.5 to 11,165 a 0.76% by the time of print 09:25 GMT. With possible downside spiral to lows of 11,115.5.
UK100: Evidence for the yield curve reveals the UK100 shares have been oscillating around in familiar territory down 1.39% and ranging between 7,036.47 – 6,943.75.
Italy 40: As Italy stubbornly avoids complying with the EU requirements for its 2019 budget. The Banks which encouraged Wednesday’s rally slumped. The Share price fell from 18,652.50 – 18,502.50.
US 30: Fell into remission trading sideways from 24,669.79 – 24,463.28.

Currencies:

GBP/USD: The Cable £ rose against the Greenback$ shooting up from lows of 1.2771- highs of 1.2874. it could easily cross the 1.29 levels before midday GMT.
EUR/USD: The pair was seen very bullish at the time of print, they stood at 1.1401 ranging from a support level of 1.1364 with resistance set at 1.1426 further upside to 1.1435 is very possible before experiencing knee jerks.
USD/JPY: With investors averting risk, JPY regained the momentum of the USD trading down at 112.95 a drop of 0.11% a set in a range from 113.23 – 112.88

Commodities:

Oil: At the time of print WTI Crude oil prices stood at 54.30 oscillating between 54.25- 54.82. With increased US production and OPEC yet to consider embracing supply cuts at its upcoming OPEC Meeting, prices are likely to fall perhaps into the 53 levels.
XAU/USD: Despite pulling back slightly after the Diwali celebrations. Demand for Gold remains high in the volatile market. Up 0.17% ranging from 1,224.94 – 1,229.10. playing its role as a safe haven.

Cryptocurrencies:

Regulation issues and a recent probe into BTC to investigate whether any unlawful practices were implored to increase its value by pegged it to the USD.

Meanwhile panic is rampant almost all tokens are in red.

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https://uk.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex–dollar-dips-in-muted-trade-euro-gains-ground-1388482

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/regulators-investigate-whether-bitcoin-price-was-propped-up-illegally.html

Italian Banks Push EU Markets Up, With Domino effects. Oil Report on Tap

Retailers are gearing up to take advantage of the upcoming Black Friday sales or so it seems. Ahead of today deluge of market events. The US will be releasing its reports on Initials jobless claims, Existing Home Sales, and Crude Oil inventories. The DXY which measures the strength of the USD was seen in a down spiral albeit above 96 levels trading between 96.58 – 96.87. Meanwhile, Italy seems to be boosting a push up in EU market trends up.

Global Stocks: Woke up gleefully today. Despite Tuesday’s drop. Asian shares are attempting to hold the forte while EU shares rose on hopes from the rebound in the Italian banking sector with a domino effect uptilting other markets. Even the US stocks are looking towards a bullish day.

Germany30: After closing down at 11,066.41 Tuesday the shares regained momentum to climb up 55pips ranging from 11,118.35 – 11,181.77.
UK100: Rallies 0.58% to 6,987.03at the time of print 09:43 GMT. Attempting to regain hold of the 7k levels. Ranging from 6,953.58 – 7,013.75.
Italy 40: Which was lagging in the early trading hours rose 133.50 pips a 0.72% trading up, between 18,597.50 – 18,727.50 a tad shy from the 19k levels.
US 30: Reversed losses to gains up 71 pips trading from 24,382.0 – 24,592.0.

Currencies:

GBP/USD: The pair once again sort climb on back USD apparent retreated weakness in the face of risk aversion trading between 1.2773 – 1.2883. This pair remains very volatile, with gains capped.
EUR/USD: Is very capricious poised to regain losses and ranging between 1.1364 – 1.1410 already up 0.04 % by the time of print.
USD/JPY: The Yen took a back seat to the USD Wednesday morning. The pair closed at 112.77 Tuesday. However, now ranges between 112.65 – 113.15

Commodities:

Oil: With references to yesterday’s post, Traders saw trends performing exactly as our analyst predicted although WTI crude oil prices did in fact drop after the API report to 53.43. However, rallies ahead of the EIA crude oil inventories trading between 53.41 – 54.70 up, 1.59% upside movement seen limited. around 55 before another slip.
XAU/USD: The pair was hawkish up 0.13% trading between 1,219.87 – 1,225.47

Cryptocurrencies: Its mayhem in the Crypto market. As investors seek understanding. Other countries like India are pushing to pilot the Blockchain to replace SWIFT money transaction. Liquidity providers in Singapore sue a Crypto exchange for 13.7 million. Meanwhile, North Korea readies to hold A crypto conference all this indicates there is an innate interest in the Crypto market.

Even Tom Lee predicts by the end of the year it could climb back to 15,000 others like Arthur Hayes says, 50,000 whether this will be realized remains to be seen.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/regulators-investigate-whether-bitcoin-price-was-propped-up-illegally.html

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-shares-rebound-as-budget-hopes-lifts-italian-banks-1696291

The Market is Back On A See-Saw Just swinging!

Looking at the market widow it looks like a see-saw. The USD recoils, following dovish comments on the prospects of the upcoming Fed rate hike. The US Dollar Index (DXY), does not show clear evidence of this dovish nosedive. Oscillating between 96.04 – 96.34. Albeit capricious ahead of today’s economic events in which investors will be focusing on the US Building Permits Reports gauging the strength of the economy. Amid OPEC’s meeting, UK’s Inflation Report Hearing and Gov. Mark Carney’s speech which are all due on the docket.

Global Stocks:
The outlook for global shares remains grime, as Asian shares take a beating. Ensued by US-China trade tensions. The Tech industry which many market participants hoped would resuscitate the market failed, as they come to terms with new changes related to Privacy Protection, while fulfilling any pending or otherwise legally binding clauses for action or omission.

Asian Shares were further bruised by Nissan’s head Goshan allegations of fraudulent activities sending Nissan Group stock prices plummeting and threatening global carnage.

US 30: Continues to bleed, down 0.57% trading from 25,042.0 – 24,837.0 at the time of print 09:00 GMT,
Germany30: Dropped 1.24% trading in reverse from 11,216.5 – 11,085.5
UK100: Inevitably, succumbed to its open Brexit wounds and ailing market conditions, dropping below the 7k handle to trade between 6,995.54 resistance levels to 6,953.15 support levels.
Italy 40: Was seen slipping further away from the 19,000 comfort zone. Down 0.89% between highs of 18,522.50 to lows of 18,797.50
DXY has been gain momentum since Tuesday EU morning perhaps triggered by the expectation of a positive outcome from the economic events of the day.

Currencies:

GBP/USD: In perhaps in small way spread-betters attempted to take some profits playing on the faux weakness of the USD. The pair were seen indecisive jumping in &out of losses in a range below the 1.29 level (1.2881- 1.2823), ahead of BOE Governor Mr. Carneys speech.
EUR/USD: The Pair exhibits similar signs of uncertainty in its direction. Upside movements are limited, ranging between 1.1394 – 1.1472
USD/JPY: The Yen seems to be the only consistent one since the beginning of the week stance dominance of the USD to trade down 0.21% between 1.1394 – 1.1472

Commodities:

Oil: Yesterday’s prognosis still seems applicable today. In the face of the politics surrounding the US drilling and OPEC & co efforts to curb prices. Russia refused to comply with cutting production to satisfy the whims of the US per se. Market participants will be itching to learn of what took place at the OPEC Meeting today to assess the direction of the trends, Upside movement is capped by the time of print WTI oil was up 0.38% at 56.98 the next resistance level was established around 57.90 after which reversals are expected to send price down perhaps back to 56.50 Post The API weekly US stockpiles report.
XAU/USD: While investors are forced to seek cover they will turn to the precious metal for a shield as a safe haven. However abrupt spikes or troughs should not be a surprise. Ranging between 1,221.21 – 1,226.06.

Cryptocurrencies:

Its been a while since we touch on this arena. However, conditions deem we revisit this. recalling our articles in which were conspicuously deciphered the statement of Arthur Hayes CEO of Bitmex in May, claiming the Bitcoin is likely to drop below 5,000 before coming up to about 20,000-50,000. BTC is now 4,555.0 trading down 15.24 % against the USD in a range between 4,411.0 – 5,374.0

Most of all other tokens remain downtrodden.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/stock-slump-to-extend-to-asia-as-u-s-tech-sinks-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-middle-east

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/khashoggi-case-uk-says-exploring-sanctions-with-eu-against-saudi-arabia.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/wall-street-tech-sell-off-impact-on-asia.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/nissan-and-mitsubishi-stocks-movements-after-ghosns-arrest.html

Is this the end ? Or Another comeback?

Is this the end? Or another comeback? Market sentiments seem “Frizzled” to say the least. The continuous jabs to the US-China Trade tensions, with counter and pro rhetoric, has been a catalyst in driving market volatility.

This 4^th Quarterly, earnings session draws to an end without being able to bolster the Stock Market as in the Q3 sessions.

Investors are hopeful that perhaps US and China could reach some sort of understanding during the G- 20 summit set for 30^th November 2018 in Buenos Aires Argentina even though the road to it has been bumpy the latest impasse happened over the weekend at the APEC meeting. Naturally, should a deal be reached, it would likely add a positive touch to the Stock market and alleviate some of the tech, financial, and agricultural shares which are slumping.

Meanwhile, some investors are taking a cautious path and looking towards the safe havens, like Gold, JPY, and to some extent, the CHF were all bullish to the USD. While others go fishing for other assets to diversify. Some are looking at the new booming Medical Cannabis firms and stocks. Analysts are projecting the value of global shares in Medical Weed is to rise to about 230%. Thus attracting investors.

Prospects for a December fed rate hike stands at nearly 75.8%. dropping from 92% as some market participants, relate to US President Trump’s displeasure at the pace of the rate hikes amid growth concerns.

Global Stocks:
Global shares were seen mixed Monday morning with Asian stocks were still pressured. However, EU Shares turned bullish with gains capped as the mining industry boosted the indices. The US stocks, however, are expected to remain dovish.

US 30: was down trotting shedding 0.29% by 12:00 GMT and ranging from 25,338.0 – 25,490.0
Germany30: Rose modestly from it open of 11,345.4 to 11,414.5 before giving up some gains to trade between 11,295.0 – 11,414.5
UK100: Was upbeat even as Brexit syndrome weighs. Up 0.57% trading from 7,025.75 – 7,071.10.
Italy 40: joined the up trending. From it open of 18,902.50 surging to 19,127.50 before fizzling down to 18,952 by 13:00 GMT up 0.57% with daily highs set at 19,127.50.
Meanwhile (DXY) signals the USD’s giving up steam. Down 0.16% trading between 96.29 – 96.57 As President Trump urges the White House to pressure the Fed to cool off.

Currencies:

GBP/USD: With the USD down, the pair climbed 0.12% by the time of print ranging from 1.2797 – 1.2883.
EUR/USD: Even this pair found some positive winds. Trading up 0.15% between 1.1394 – 1.1438.
USD/JPY: The USD gave up to the JPY as mentioned earlier trading between highs of 112.85 to lows 112.61

Commodities:

Oil: Prices remain capriciously political in the early house of Monday Analyst suggested an uptrend however further insights suggest this capped with potentially abrupt downswings so long as the sanction against Saudi Arabia in its involvement in the murdered journalist case. WTI Crude is seen ranging 55.81 – 57.55 the forecast to 59.00 was not realized.
XAU/USD: Swung between 1,218.11 – 1,223.65 between gains and loses

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Incited market sentiment bounce with NFP

Us president Donald Trump incited market sentiment following global market recovery Wednesday. However indecisive rhetoric on imposing sanctions on China should the US & China fail to reach any conclusions, sent investors veering for cover on Thursday. Which was slightly exacerbated by Apple Inc. Despite beating expectations with an EPS (earnings per share) of 4.68 instead of 2.91 the forecast for future turnovers was lame with a caveat that holiday sales could bring value down by $1trillion according to some experts close to the matter its share price has since dropped nearly 5 % albeit trading side-ways in short (fiscal first quarter guidance) missed expectations.

Yet ahead of the Day’s main report; the US Jobs report (NFP) Non-farm payrolls which are expected to be positive if we are to take our cue from the ADP spectacular report, coupled with the release of some 70+ Earnings report the market gleefully embraced hopes that the US and China could indeed reach a Trade deal.

Global Stocks:
Chinese’s shares rose on hopes of Trumps’ tweet revealing the welcoming news that both He and president Xi had a productive conversation toward hashing out the Trade Tiffs, propelling The EU Shares to climb as well. In fact, the US is also set to open strong.

Germany30: shot past Wednesday’s highs seen 1.75% up ranging between 11,595.66 -11,671.58 at 11,669.07 by the time of print 10:53 GMT.
Italy 40: Was seen up 1.86% in a range from 19,322.50 – 19,477.50
UK100: Gained fresh hawkish wings as the mining sector, amongst others led the rally. Obviously, Brexit optimism and prospects for calmer heads in the US-Chinese saga helped seen rallying 0.68% at 7,163.37 ranging from 7,153.75 – 7,195.91.
US 30: Has been able to keep its head above the 24k levels ranging from 25,196.0 – 25,679.0 up 0.91% at the time of print.

The Dollar Index (DXY), meanwhile recede from the 97 to range between 95.99 – 96.40 down 0.13%.

Currencies:

GBP/USD: Rallied early Friday morning, 0.7% and hold it neck above the 1.30 levels seen trending from 1.2986 – 1.3041. However, upside movement remains limited ahead of the US NFP, which could send the GBP to the queen for a cup of tea.
EUR/USD: Shot up 0.10% from 1.1391 – 1.1456 how very capricious. Analysts will be in ewe should the EUR cross to a 1.15 handle. As the EU awaits its stress test.
USD/JPY: Although the Greenback fell from Wednesday highs against the Yen it was seen 0.15% up between 112.56 – 113.10.

Commodities:

Oil: Oversupply woes pushed oil prices further down today ahead of the drilling report from Baker Hughes Rig Count. WTI was seen struggling under the $64bbl mark. Down 0.47% ranging from 63.27 – 63.95.
XAU/USD: Despite the increased purchase of gold by some central banks especially the Russian central bank as reported by the WGC to its highest in 3 years to approximately 150 Metric tons and the anticipation of the Diwali holidays Gold prices seem to be unable to maintain a consistency stance against the stronger USD. However, it has been oscillating between 1,229.88 – 1,236.51 depending on risk on/ risk off factors. Today down 0.26% ahead of the NFP.

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Related Links:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/apple-warns-holiday-sales-may-disappoint-amid-weakness-in-emerging-markets-1670944

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-friday-1671555