Everyone wants a Piece of the Pie.

  •  US Yields rose Wednesday morning; Asian shares were relatively positive boosted by the tech industry. These chain of causation is likely going to support EU shares in a positive way.
  •  As USD maintained its bullish stance the expectation is commodities and other majors are to be on a downward trajectory as in a classic inverse correlation scenario, however, commodities like Gold, Aluminium, Silver, and Oil are all bullish. perhaps until reports from the U.S are delivered.
  •  Oil prices rose Wednesday ahead of the usual Crude Oil Inventories Report, provided by the EIA / Energy Information Administration, although some analysts claim the U.S. has asked some OPEC members to increase production. Venezuelan’s efforts to curb exports have encouraged prices up to be ranging between 65.44 – 65.97 with a 0.26% rise by07:54GMT
  •  GOLD is trending between 1,300.40 – 1,303.50
  •  Meanwhile, EUR/USD climbs 0.34% from recent 10month lows of 1.1510 to 1.1758. at two weeks highs and may remain hawkish as investors digest upcoming ECB comments. The GBP was also found bullish. USD/JPY was up 109.90 at the time of print 07:10GMT
  • Upbeat GDP has supported AUD reports 1.0% versus a forecast of 0.8%.
  • CAD & MXN have been under pressure by the USD Tariffs (Trade Wars) which is biting into the NAFTA agreement.
  •  INR releases its interest rate decision today.
  • China Steel exporters seek new markets in Africa and elsewhere.

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Market Seeks New Catalysts.

  • Following yesterday’s rally for Global markets, on several fronts. Market Participant today are eyeing other possible catalysts for market direction.
  • With Asia steady amid a trade war standoff between the US & China, European shares are taking advantage of the limelight. GERMANY 30, ITALY 40, FRANCE 40, UK100, all seem bullish oscillating between small gains and losses while long-term gains remain fragile as the Italian, and the US lead tariffs threaten the stability
  • The oil shock of its losing streak from Monday, ahead of the API/American Petroleum Institute Report which reveals the status of weekly Oil stockpiles, Oil is relatively Bullish meaning up trending. Oversupply worries could limit upside movement. By 08:16GMT Oil price had tacked on gains of 0.65% at $65.16 a barrel. Analysts see a range bound between 64.90 – 65.28 breaches beyond these thresholds will set the tone for oil direction.
  • Despite the USD’s firm stance, US yields lost steam, prompting some market participants to think it is weak. EUR, GBP, are rallying with upside movement capped, while AUD falls from yesterday’s glory.
  • Gold is also pinned down. Swing between short gains and losses.

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The Trumpnomic Effect & Wall street

  • Asian Shares rose Monday morning propelled by upbeat U.S. jobs growth report on Friday. The Non- Farm Payrolls reported 223,000 new jobs versus a forecast of 189,000. Volatility is highly likely, amid commotions surrounding the newly imposed US. Tariffs imposed on its “Allies” though Wall Street seems unraveled by it.
  • The USD Uptrends has pushed commodity prices down, with the most obviously seen changes in Gold prices which are ranging from 1,294.10 – 1,298.60 down 0.15 % from its previous open.
  • Oil price slumped with the Dollar up. However, the rise in Friday’s Baker Hughes Rig count by 2 more rigs from 859-861 was enough to diminish investors appetited, whom among other factor are weighing Saudi & Russian led initiatives to fill in the supply gap left by Iran and Venezuela. WTI Oil prices began tacking on some gains after dropping to $65. Analysts suggest a range bound day between 65.57 – 66.27
  • The Financial calendar today is laced with some Economic event coming in from Spain, and the EU is attracting spread betters to the EU. The EUR/USD was seen trending between 1519 – 1.1724 a 0.29 % rise by 08:00 GMT. Further upside remains capped.
  • The AUD got fresh winds climbing up against the USD, with the release of supportive data: Retail Sales rose 0.4% versus a project 0.2% Australia Company Gross Operating Profits increased by 5.9% instead of 3.0%.
  • Cryptocurrencies remain sensitive to cleanups and regulatory measures, which causes abrupt swings between gains and losses, despite the establishment interest. BTC/USD was seen heading down -1.67% between 7,548.9 – 7,770.9.
  • As Asian shares shine some of the effects could be felt within the EU shares. Germany 30, Italy 40, France’s CAC40 are all bullish. Which is likely to spill to the US.
  • Meanwhile the US. Yields surge rendering support for the USD while EUR, GBP, and AUD stage a defiant comeback on the local fundamental news. AUD rose to its 50day highs
  • Although Earnings season is cooling off there are still 23 companies reporting today which may drive the stocks of individual companies up pulling with it the NASDAQ, S&P and Dow Jones.

Elsewhere the Turkish lira slumps with ongoing strife amongst the citizens.

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US-Tariffs,Profit-Taking & Payrolls

  • Today The USD regained some dominance and back in the spotlight, affected by the Imposing of US. Tariffs, on Steel, Aluminum, and other Metals. These new round of Tariffs will affect the EU, Canada, Mexico & China. likely to mess up the NAFTA deal.
  • The EUR, GBP, JPY, a basket of other major currencies and commodities recoiled into a bearish mode. Although reversals are in view.
  • EUR/USD was down 0.3% trading in the comfort zone according to the RSI between 1.1519 – 1.1724.
  • GBP/USD is seen struggling between 1.1519 – 1.1724 with a 0.12% drop.
  • The Gold spot was also down 0.12% ranging between 1,297.90 – 1,298.70
  • WTI Crude oil remains political the EIA, energy Information administration report a surprise draw of nearly 4 million barrels the news had Oil prices climbing up but was unable to breach the $70bbl mark, before losing steam.
  • With the USD strong and ahead of the Baker Hughes Rig count further downside may be seen pushing Oil prices.
  • Cryptocurrencies are mixed however upside movements are likely with tokens like BTC, ETH & XRP vs. USD.
  • Asian Shares went on a short roller coaster trip receding then climbing again. The positive outlook for Asian shares may cause EU share to take advantage of some uptrends.
  • Friday’s usual profit-taking is unabated. Some assets going to be seen swinging between small gains and losses throughout the day.
  • Fresh criminal charges, against the Australian –New Zealand Bank, ANZ has sent shock waves throughout the battered banking industry ANZ shares plummeted along with Citi & Deutsche Bank.
  • Meanwhile, market participants gauge the NFP/Non -Farm Payrolls to access the strength of the USD. Some analysts think it could disappoint market expectation just like the ADP did on Wednesday.

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Its a Sunshine Day for EUR & Commodities.

The USD has been pinned down due to disappointing GDP and inflation reports from yesterday. On the other hand, the EUR rallied as Italian politicians cooled tempers.

  • EUR/USD is currently trending a path of 1.1519 – 1.1724 with more upside expected.
  • Asian stocks rallied welcoming the calmer atmosphere in Italy. EU shares are expected to rally in tandem.
  • Cryptocurrencies are mostly looking for a rebound up. Meanwhile, South Korea’s big exchange Bitumb banned Crypto trading in 11 countries including Iran & Iraq for not having adequate tools to regulate and prevent money laundering, thus dabbed Non-Compliant Countries & Territories (NCCT). Although this may create a short-term sell-off long-term rallies are eyed since the initial selloff with be from questionable participants.
  • Commodities are also looking positive due to the decline in the USD which makes commodities cheaper. Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum & Nickel are likely to tack on some handsome gains. Meanwhile, the Oil is on a downtrend, triggered by oversupply. Wednesday’s American Petroleum Institute/API reported a built of 1m barrels. Today The Energy Information Administration/EIA is expected to release its report on Crude Oil inventories at 16:00GMT probably with the revelation of more built. Crude Oil was seen ranging between 67.77 – 68.27 with perhaps more downside.

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Investors seek shade, Italy weighs.

A very busy calendar day with a deluge of reports coming out of the EU and US. The reports are set to cause a fair degree of volatility. Sending assets in and out of gains

  • With the Italian political saga weighing global stocks plummeted. Dow Jones was down nearly 480 pips as the big banks like JP Morgan shares tumbled. Germany30/DAX30, France40/CAC 40, Italy40 & FTSE100, are all struggling to come up yet remain bearish.
  • EUR was pushed down to almost 9 month lows, the EUR/USD is seen trending in the “Comfort Zone” of 1.1519 – 1.1612 with further downside expected later when the US releases its reports on GDP, PCE/Inflation numbers and the American petroleum institute/API reveals the levels of US weekly oil stocks today instead of the usual Tuesday report due to Monday’s Memorial Day commemoration.
  • Oil prices tanked 1.7% ranging between 66.37 – 67.12 due to increased U.S. shale production as well as Saudi and Russian intention to lift the production cap in place by OPEC. Likely this will pressure Oil downwards.
  • GBP/USD was spotted adding gains recovering from its recent sell-off as Brexit uncertainties weigh.
  • The USD Bond Yields were up, likely an indication that the USD may follow in its footsteps. Ahead of the Automatic Data processing report a prelude to the NFP.
  • Market uncertainties cause investors to flee to safe heavens, JPY is a positive benefactor like the Crypto-Currencies which recently has been behaving like the good old CBOE, S&P500 VIX. A fear gauge for market participants.
  • Commodities such as Gold, Copper were bearish in their outlook.
  • The CAD remains vulnerable awaiting today’s Canadian Interest rate decision.

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