Jobs Reports Boost Market Sentiment

Friday’s US NFP, Non-Farm Payroll one of the most popular economic indicators, in gauging the strength of the economy was released with mixed undertones. The report revealed 213,000 jobs were created for the month of June versus estimations of 200,000 which was good sending the USD up. However, the rally was short-lived as the unemployment also rose from 3.8% to 4.0%

  • The DXY, US Dollar Index was down 0.18% by 07:17GMT ranging from 93.51 – 93.72

With the USD losing some steam. Investors have been picking and choosing other up trending assets.

  • In the FX space EUR, GBP, AUD, and JPY are in a Hawkish mood.
  • EUR/USD was up 0.21% trading between 1.1743 – 1.1779.
  • GBP/USD climbed 0.40% ranging from 1.3285 – 1.3350 Although the GBP dropped following the resignation of British Brexit Secretary David Davis, The Pound is in up with investors hoping to take profits before any “Hard Brexit” is ensured.

Commodities have been relatively upbeat in classic inverse correlation syndrome to the USD.

  • Gold edged up 0.46 to 1,261.60 with expected highs of 1,263.10 and lows of 1,255.80 for the day.
  • WTI Crude Oil rose despite an increase in Baker Hughes Rig Count from 858 to 863 and in addition to ramped up production from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US global supply is questioned with dwindling inventories as some reports claim. Oil prices took on a bullish path ranging from 73.73 – 74.23 and remain very shaky volatility to the downside is expected before any surges about the $74.23 psychological mark for today.

Naturally Silver, copper, Aluminum, and Nickel are all up.

The positive US jobs report (NFP) rendered support for the Asian Markets. With Asian Shares up the European Stocks are also ticking up, which may bolster the USD Shares when markets open. Market participants among other things are keeping an eye on developments of the US lead trade wars, and the upcoming Earnings reports from various companies

  • Germany 30 (DAX30) was up 0.16% trading around 12,514.51
  • UK100 (FTSE 100) was 0.14% up marching around 7,627.25,
  • France 40 (CAC40) climbed 0.55% to 5,405.35.

Cryptocurrencies’ are in a limbo retracting from previous gains.

  • BTC/USD surged passed the 6,500 mark however lost 0.17% by0.8:44GMT to trade between 6,666.1 – 6,774.8 ETH/USD lost 0.71% and playing touché.

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China is not ready to turn the other cheek

The US slapped China with $34 billion trade levy, Sending Asian shares down, while boosting the USD, momentarily. Ahead of today NFP report, investors remain apprehensive in search of direction and safe havens. The Chinese Market is now 17% down in the bear market.

  • Although the Chinese kept their cool in hopes that US President Trump may re-access his position. The reality has dawned upon China, which is considering retaliation moves officially dragging global market into a full-blown trade war.
  • As Traders and Investors digest the consequences many are already considering the Safe havens like Gold and the JPY. Amid Friday’s usual profit taking a basket of major currencies, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY CHF, are all in demand rallying against the USD.
  • EUR/USD is up 0.21% oscillation in a range of 1.1650 – 1.1726
  • GBP/USD is also bullish, rallying 0.20% between 1.3204 – 1.3253. While USD recedes verse the JPY down 0.04% in a tight range of 110.30 – 110.78.

Thursdays’ ADP, Automatic Data Processing Report disappointed investors coming out a to 177k instead of the projected 190k. since the ADP and NFP have been correlated, Analysts are signaling a possible downside to the NFP report due 13:30GMT.

Oil saw a dramatic plunge to the $72bbl handle after the Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report from the EIA, Energy information Administration failed to appease investors. The forecast was for a drop of 5.200M barrels which would have lifted prices, instead there was a surged of 1.245M barrels pushing prices down. With Baker Hughes Rig count on tap crude oil is jumping in and out of profits ranging between 72.64 – 73.31 and 0.05% up by 08:34GMT.

Gold has been shaky declining as the USD strengthens. However, as a safe haven, it is likely going to be gaining moderate attention as trade wars get sticky.

  • The gold spot was oscillating violently between 1,253.70 – 1,259.80. XAU/USD was trending between 1,252.90 – 1,258.82.

Meanwhile, European Shares are bullishly led by the auto industry which according to some sources got some relief from Trumps Tariffs for a reciprocal treatment for US automobiles in Europe’s. Most of the Asian shares are picking up.

  • GERMANY 30 (DAX30) was up 0.12% ranging between 12,442.90 – 12,509.05.
  • FRANCE’s CAC40 up 0.32% in a range of 5,376.20 – 5,393.46
  • Italy40 was also up 0.34% trending between 2,132.2 – 2,144.4.
  • While UK100 bounces cautiously between 7,606.25 – 7,632.57 up 0.08%.

Cryptocurrencies are red. Bearish. Perhaps due to the fact that investors are edgy and not wanting to jump too quickly opted for some short profit taking.

The day is definitely going to be an interesting one with several trading opportunities available in the FX, Commodities’ and Stock. This may be the right time to call attention to the US Tech stocks and the FAAG stocks as well. Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix to name but a few are all turning bullish after the drop post the 4th of July.

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Investors in Asia Brace For US Tariffs

Investors are bracing for the first bout of US-Tariffs to the tune of 25% on $30 billion worth of Chinese trades. Asian shares are down due to this with ripple effects on the EU Markets limited as the Auto market boosts up European Shares by nearly 3.5% This may affect US stocks positively. Th

In a turn of fate GERMANY 30, (DAX30) surges 0.98% to 12,437, FTSE100, (UK100) jumps 0.31% to 7,598.70, FRANCE 40, (CAC40) was spotted at 5,355.79 up 0.66% How long will today’s fundamentals keep driving the EU shares remains to be seen.

Commodities are broadly mixed as Gold and silver try to hold on the gains, albeit slipping with the USD contest. Nonetheless Gold was up 0.06% at 1.254.60 and Silver losing its grip.

Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, and Oil were all bearish. US President Trump puts more pressure on OPEC to reduce Oil prices with more production. However, with the EIA, US Energy Information Administration on Tap to release its weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report, which predicts a drop of nearly 5 million barrels, prices are likely to bounce up. WTI Oil was swinging between 73.67 – 74.42 down 0.08% at the time of print.

As per our Analysis yesterday the Crypto-currencies did surge BTC/USD is up 1.44% at 6,613.4 ETH/USD at 473.12 up 1.28% and XRP/USD is up 0.17%

The USD Yields rose after independence day celebrations. The USD is broadly supported evident in the currency pair of the USD/JPY up 0.15% ranging between   110.30 – 110.69

EUR is defiant against the USD EUR/USD 1.1650 – 1.1711 as the GBP which is also up 0.20% ranging between 1.3171 – 1.3267

Market participants are watching today’s, economic data dump to gauge the strength of the USD on the docket are ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Nonfarm Employment and Crude Oil Inventories to name but three. Crude Oil inventories reports suggest prices may rally. However, caution may be warranted as the US, increases production over 10.5million barrels a day

What is your view?

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Wall Street Out, Enjoying US Independence day!

  •  Wall Street is closed for Independence day celebration.  Market participants are anticipating a very volatile trading day as trading volumes have decreased
  •  The US Dollar recedes from yesterday’s highs giving way to most of the metal commodities such as Gold, Silver, etc.
  • Aluminum & Nickel remain the odd ones out pressured down by the trade tariffs.
  • Oil has been sensitive to reactions from OPEC+ and impending Oil shortages. On Tuesday WTI oil prices jumped to $75.27 as word on production shortages from Libya hit investors hear. Trades overreacted to the news taking into account that production is limited from Canada due to the power outage and Venezuela as sanctions take its toll.  However less than an hour later Oil prices slid, only to recover this morning. Even with Russia and Saudi Arabia trying to fill the vacuum prices remain challenged. API reported a draw of nearly 4 million barrels. To trade between 73.58 – 74.88
  • Gold is up 0.35% ranging from 1,253.30 – 1,262.40 by 08:20 GMT although by the time of print it had lost a bit of steam.
  • In the FX arena, it was a jolly morning for most of the other majors as the USD retreated.  However, the potential for some intraday profit taking was dampened.
  • Asian Shares were down trotting with ongoing trade woes weighing. The Yuan climbed though. However, to dismal mood reached European Markets suffocating the Germany30 (DAX30) to shrink 0.13% trading between 12,299.11 – 12,340.66.
  • UK100 had dropped 0.17% while France 40 edges up 0.5% to trade between 5,307.20 – 5,320.67
  • It is highly likely that wild swings in between gains and losses for witnessed with the currency pairs of GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD are all likely to persist. When the Service PMI reports for the EU, Germany, and Italy are released positive report will prompt short-lived upward knee jerking’s
  • Cryptocurrencies are down as India bans all Crypto activities reducing trading volumes. However, with the US market closed some investors may jump ship to the crypto for some profit taking.
  • US Tech stocks are down, however, investors believe it is a great buying opportunity especially for Facebook, Amazon, Google and even Tesla.

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Pre-US Independence day

Another market day begins with the US Independence Holiday looming, The USD retreated slightly Tuesday morning, even though it remains highly supported.
The EUR with a basket of other major currencies rallied from yesterdays lows.
EUR/USD increased by 0.20% to 1.1662 by 07:50 GMT trending in a tight range of 1.1664-1.1664. However, it does have the potential of surging to highs of 1.1673 or plummeting to lows of 1.1621 depending on how positive or negative the EU economic reports of today are. EUR’s rise was propelled partly by the restoration of calm in Germany’s coalition party, in which the Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, threatened to resign over migration policies.
GBP pipes up 0.35% GBP/USD was trading between 1.3095 – 1.3209 with possible uptrends should today’s UK Construction PMI report come out positive.
AUD also rose by 0.71%. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on unchanged at 0.50 basis point.
Meanwhile, Russia diversifies to purchasing more Chinese Yuan and Gold for exchange reserves the move strengths some of the Russia shares from recent fallouts.
Commodities are broadly bullish Gold is up modestly trading in a tight range of 1,238.80 – 1,248.80 yet remains below last week’s highs.
Ahead of today’s API, American Petroleum Institute Report, Oil has been rallying. The Momentum was from supply shortages from which announced production drop of 800,000 Bpd, Barrels per day.
Cryptocurrencies shine for two straight days BTC was up 3.47% between 6,327.3 – 6,681.2.
Perhaps a small comeback as people like Arthur Hayes of BitMex continues to fan hopes of the Bitcoin reaching $50,000 by the end of the year. Though some analysts believe this is wishful thinking, all the regulatory policies and probe may effectively weed out most of the bad practices in the industry to bolster Blockchain and various tokens.
China’s face off with the US on trade tariffs pushed Chinese and Asian shares down, EU share escaped the carnage barely.
Germany 30 (DAX 30) is at 12,297.5 with uptrends of at least 20-80pips surge.
The UK’s 100 (FTSE100) is seen bullish ranging between 7,545.67 – 7,596.87 while France’s CAC40 also joined the club of uptrends swing between 5,284.13 – 5,334.69.
US Shares are likely to take a cue from the EU to rise at the open bell.

So in summary whats your take?? kindly share your thoughts in the comments.

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Commotions in the Market

  • The week seems to be driven by the impact of US lead trade tariffs which has snowballed to a ping pong of trade wars. None the less a capricious undertone is highlighted for the day.
  • Asian Markets fell, with China’s Yuan receded to two-year lows. The Crunch spilled to the European Markets which opened slightly positive were short-lived to be pinned down by the threat of possible resignation of Germany’s interior Minister on migrations concerns
  • Germany 30 (DAX30) was trading between 12,132.93 – 12,277.62 by 08:40 GMT down 0.25% at 12,273.22.
  • UK’s 100 (FTSE100), receded 0.83% ranging hopelessly between 7,539.25 – 7,584.86 even positive reports today did not move the GBP into a bullish light.
  • France 40 (CAC40) plunged 0.91% to 5,275.57

The Commodities have also been hit hard with almost metals, energy down.

  • Gold dropped 0.39% to 1,249.60.
  • WTI Oil recedes 0.35% to trade at $73.89bbl, ranging from 72.62 – 74.00. Trump’s tweet on Saturday claim Saudi had agreed to increase productions to bring prices down was quickly refuted. Volatility is expected as eyes pray on OPEC for clear direction.
  • The USD managed to consolidate its gains from Friday. USD was seen hawkish to the EUR, GBP, AUD, and even safe haven JPY conceded to the US.
  • Market participants are looking at Friday’s NFP report to determine if the rates may be hiked once or twice before the end of the year.
  • Cryptocurrencies retreat from Friday’s highs amid news that Facebook has removed its blanket ban.
  • Reversal and corrections are expected as the day’s economic reports are delivered.

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