This week ahead: top news to watch this week (March 12 – 16)

Fellow traders, let us have a look at upcoming week in terms of important economic news.

Below you can find short table of major economic news during this week:

Monday: The market moving events on Monday can be considered as follows: Eurogroup Meeting + RBNZ Governor Grant Spencer speech impacting EUR and NZD respectively. China’s Foreign Direct Investment is due. Greek industrial production is set to rise 0.2% m/m in January. Portuguese CPI is expected to rise 1.0% y/y in February. The US monthly budget statement is set to reveal a deficit of $-222.6 billion in February. NZ Food price index is expected to rise 1.2% m/m in February.

Tuesday: USD Inflation Data: The Commerce Department will publish February inflation figures. The Commerce Department will publish February inflation figures at 8:30AM ET (1230GMT) Tuesday. Market analysts expect consumer prices to rise 0.2%, weakening from January’s 0.5% increase, while core inflation is forecast to inch up 0.2%, a touch slower than a month earlier, when core CPI recorded a 0.3% gain.

Wednesday: USD Retail Sales: The Commerce Department will publish data on retail sales for February. The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales rose 0.3% last month, snapping back after a decline of 0.3% in January. Core sales are forecast to inch up 0.3%, after holding flat a month earlier.

Thursday: SNB Policy Assessment: The Swiss National Bank’s quarterly monetary policy assessment. Most economists forecast the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at -0.75%. The SNB is also expected to stick to its commitment to foreign currency interventions if necessary.

Friday: Euro Zone CPI: The euro zone will publish final inflation figures for February. The report is expected to confirm that consumer prices rose 1.2%, 0.1% slower than in the previous month. Perhaps more significantly, the core figure, without volatile energy and food prices, is seen holding steady at 1.0%, unchanged from a month earlier.

Final inflation figures for Germany, France, Spain and Italy are also due this week

Sources: 

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/european-fx-outlook-markets-seen-digesting-the-nfp-report-on-data-light-monday-201803120656

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/economic-calendar–top-5-things-to-watch-this-week-1335604

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

https://www.ft.com/markets

 

Oil and global stocks fall amid Trump`s administration turmoil

The oil price fall followed weakness in global financial markets after the resignation of Gary Cohn, economic adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, seen as a bulwark against protectionist forces in the government. Obviously, the worst outcome for financial markets, in terms of potential to create volatility, would be a confirmation of rising trade friction and benign neglect of the dollar in the short term.

The result of Trump`s games within administration is clear though – with the announcement that Cohn was resigning, the S&P futures market dropped and oil went with it down further.

Brent Oil futures slipped 32 cents to $64.47 a barrel by 1232 GMT, while U.S. crude futures fell 33 cents to $62.27, although both contracts had eased off their lows in line with a recovery in S&P futures. Copper on the London Metal Exchange lost 1.2%, paring a 1.4% gain from the previous session.

The dollar was off 0.4% against the yen to ¥105.76. Bond markets also benefited with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury slipping, in a further sign of investors seeking safe assets.

The Dow was down 300 points at the open. MSCI’s world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was down 0.2%, having seen some strength in Asian trading following news that South and North Korea would hold their first summit in more than a decade.

Sources: 

https://www.fxstreet.com/news

https://www.ft.com/content/7a5f7236-1d94-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6

https://www.ft.com/content/3bbf66ac-21d7-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea

https://www.ft.com/content/71629a08-215b-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

https://www.ft.com/content/a5075e36-219a-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-fall-as-cohn-departure-raises-trade-war-fears-1328505

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/global-stocks-fall-as-key-trump-advisers-departure-heightens-trade-war-fears-1328403

 

Cohn desicion to resign as Trump’s Top Economic Advisor sends markets down in hours

Gary Cohn, Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, has resigned after losing a heated White House battle over tariffs, dealing a big blow to Washington Republicans and business leaders seeking to prevent the president from igniting a global trade war.

Stock prices and the dollar remained lower as markets considered the implications, with the S&P 500 off 1.2% in after-hours trading in New York. Bond prices also strengthened, a signal of demand for safe assets, while equities also fell in Asia and Europe.

Cohn comes from Wall street and certainly large institutional investors felt he was very credible in his spot, but after the fierce fight withing White House economy team regarding aluminium and steel tarrifs issue, the first loss has been on the side of moderates. He was a main driver of a sweeping tax overhaul passed by Congress in December and signed into law by Trump as well.

Asian shares ended broadly lower, with losses in the region led by Japan’s benchmark Nikkei, which ended down about 0.8%.

In Europe, nearly all the continent’s major bourses traded in negative territory, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index, the region’s broadest measure of share prices, falling around 0.5%, with most sectors in the red.

On Wall Street, U.S. stock futures pointed to a sharply lower open. Dow futures were down 320 points, or 1.3%, from their Tuesday close, while S&P 500 futures S&P 500 lost 28 points, or 1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 66 points, or roughly 1%.

Sources: 

https://www.ft.com/content/56e349a2-2192-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cohns-resignation-provides-confirmation-a-weak-usd-trend-is-here-to-stay-ing-201803070922

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-wednesday-1328817

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/trump-economic-adviser-cohn-quits-after-tariffs-dispute-1328338

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/global-stocks-fall-as-key-trump-advisers-departure-heightens-trade-war-fears-1328403

https://www.investing.com/news/

Global stocks pushed higher as Trade War rumors go down

U.S. President Donald Trump faced increasing pressure from political and diplomatic allies to pull back from proposed steel and aluminium tariffs, helping soothe investor nerves about an imminent trade war. Mr Trump earlier alarmed his Nafta partners, who had been hoping for an exemption from the planned tariffs on steel and aluminium, by tying that explicitly to a deal. “We have large trade deficits with Mexico and Canada. NAFTA, which is under renegotiation right now, has been a bad deal for USA. Massive relocation of companies & jobs. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed,” he tweeted on Monday.

But next day on Tuesday he has been forced to back off on the stance.

Facing growing pressure from political and diplomatic allies to pull back from proposed steel and aluminium tariffs, helping soothe investor nerves about an imminent trade war, Trump showed some willingness to be flexible on the issue.

Realising that the situation is far from being grave, worries have dissipated slightly and markets moved up on Tuesday.

Asian shares rallied, with gains in the region led by Japan’s benchmark Nikkei, which ended up 1.8%, after hitting its lowest closing level since October a day earlier.

In Europe, pan-European Stoxx 600 index, the region’s broadest measure of share prices, rising around 0.8%, with all sectors in the green.

On Wall Street, U.S. stock futures inched higher – Dow futures were up 70 points, or nearly 0.3%, from their Monday close, while S&P 500 futures tacked on 6 points, or about 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 28 points, or roughly 0.4%.

Sources: 

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-tuesday-1326496

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/paper-stocks-autos-drive-european-shares-higher-1326401

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-sigh-relief-on-korea-trump-201803061419

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6123b2-2078-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80

https://www.ft.com/content/496f1036-1e3f-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6

 

Italian election results and Trump’s trade wars dominate market`s mood on Monday

Both Italian election results and Trump decision to impose higher tariffs on steel and aluminium are impacting the markets on EUR and USD currency pairs on Monday.

Global equities were mixed in cautious trade, as investor nerves remained on show.

The EUR/USD is trading around $1.2300, slightly lower on the day. The Italian elections resulted in big gains for populist parties and the composition of the next government is unclear. The euro septic Lega will probably be in government and this slightly weighs on the euro. Five Star, led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, was one of the big winners and appeared on course to be Italy’s strongest single party with 32 per cent of the vote. Although it cannot form a government unless it strikes an alliance with other parties, it has positioned itself as a dominant force in Italian politics.

The euro was up 0.1% at $1.2331, erasing all of its losses after sliding to a session low of $1.2155. Against the yen, it was unchanged at 130.25, recovering after hitting an intraday low of 129.36, its lowest level since late August.

However, Germany will finally have a government and Trump’s tariffs weigh on the US Dollar against the majors. U.S. stocks logged hefty losses last week, with the Dow dropping around 3%. Trump is expected to finalize the tariffs – 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum – later in the week, posing a tough challenge for U.S. Trade Representative.

The USD/JPY is trading a bit lower, around ¥105.50, stuck above the lows of ¥105.25 recorded last week.

Sources: 

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-monday-1324224

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-dow-futures-lower-as-trade-war-fears-dominate-1324454

https://www.investing.com/news/

https://www.ft.com/content/e6a89252-1ffa-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-forecast-ignoring-italy-trumping-on-looking-for-a-new-direction-201803050927?utm_source=NLsession&utm_medium=email&utm_content=hot-story-headline&utm_campaign=america-newsletter

https://www.fxstreet.com/testing/home-with-tabs?utm_expid=.7yoibMg6Tc-Z6LTNNM39OQ.1&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fxstreet.com%2Fanalysis%2Feur-usd-forecast-ignoring-italy-trumping-on-looking-for-a-new-direction-201803050927%3Futm_source%3DNLsession%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_content%3Dhot-story-headline%26utm_campaign%3Damerica-newsletter

https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/usdjpy

 

This week ahead: top news to watch this week

Fellow traders, let us have a look at upcoming week in terms of important economic news.

Below you can find short table of major economic news during this week:

Monday: UK Services PMI: A survey on Britain’s giant services sector due at 0930GMT (4:30AM ET) on Monday is forecast to inch up to 53.3 from the previous month’s reading of 53.0. China’s annual two-week long National People’s Congress commencing on Monday will also grab some attention. The political meeting is used by leaders to set policies for the year and detail plans to curb financial risk, air pollution, and excess industrial capacity.

Tuesday: USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan): The advance durable goods orders report from the Census Bureau of USA impacting USD values. Tuesday will also bring us AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday: EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a.

Thursday: European Central Bank Policy Meeting: President Mario Draghi will hold what will be a closely-watched press conference 45 minutes after the rate announcement. How he views signs of undershooting inflation and any clues on when the central bank plans to end its €2.5 trillion stimulus program will be important. China Trade Figures for February will be released on Thursday as well. Exports are forecast to have climbed 13.9% from a year earlier, following a gain of 11.1% in the preceding month, while imports are expected to rise 9.7%, after soaring 36.9% in January.

Friday: The U.S. Labour Department will release US Employment report. The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 204,000, after adding 200,000 positions in January, while the unemployment rate is forecast to dip to a 17-year low of 4.0% from 4.1%.

Sources: 

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/economic-calendar–top-5-things-to-watch-this-week-1323555

https://www.ft.com/content/1140bade-2010-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11

https://www.ft.com/markets

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/week-ahead-italian-election-central-banks-and-us-jobs-in-focus-201803042347?utm_source=NLsession&utm_medium=email&utm_content=also-happening-2-headline&utm_campaign=weekahead-newsletter

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/key-events-for-the-week-ahead-nomura-201803042355?utm_source=NLsession&utm_medium=email&utm_content=hot-story-headline&utm_campaign=weekahead-newsletter

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar?utm_source=NLecocal&utm_medium=email&utm_content=cta-button-1&utm_campaign=eco-cal-weekly-schedule&utm_source=NLecocal&utm_medium=email&utm_content=cta-button-1&utm_campaign=eco-cal-weekly-schedule

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/italy-elections-deliver-hung-parliament-gridlock-exit-polls-1323524