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“Trumpnomics” Births “Tecnomics” Which Keeps Markets Capricious And On tiptoes.

“Trumpnomics” births “Tecnomics” which Keeps Markets capricious and on tiptoes.

As the results of the EU parliamentary elections results provide some sort of comfort in that most are parties are pro EU. However, the silver lining here would be that UK’s Nigel Farage’s pro-Brexit party won. Both the US and the UK started the week with holidays, For the US it Memorial Day while the UK commemorates Spring Bank Holiday on a light economic calendar day, which no doubt increases the market capriciousness the decreased trading volumes as result keeps market participants on tiptoes. Some investors will be using these market breaks to reassess their positions. While other grapple on the what seems like an ensuing of tech war with Huawei getting caught in the crossfires.

Global Stocks:

In line with Friday’s post, most of the global stocks ended up closing positively for the weekend enabling some rewarding profit taking. Especially when US President decided to turn down the heat on the Trade Tensions with China in a time when the Chinese government has also decided to put on gloves and dish out some blows to the US economy.

USA30: With the US and UK markets closed there are no Q1 earning reports today boost or pressure wall street. Trading sideways between 25,590.5 – 25,694.5 in and out of gains. The only company that may report today, perhaps could be Nordic American Offshore Ltd. If it’s not moved to Tuesday.

UK100: Despite PM. Theresa Mays resignation. The FTSE 100 Futures are contained in a similar range to Friday and still bullish with markets closed the trading range could oscillate between 7,258.9 – 7,305.7. however, stagnant around 7,274.00 or up 0.16%

Germany 30: Managed to climb and consolidate above the 12K threshold. Trading between 12,013.8 – 12,119.5 by the time of print up 0.49% abrupt up or down swings may be inevitable.

Italy 40: Opened at 20,595.00 however, displays hawkish tendencies in a trading range between 20,467.00 – 20,672.00

Commodities:

Commodities like all other assets are also reacting to market dynamics brought on by the socio-political whims over various countries. Silver shares are likely to follow Gold. While Copper and Oil may be seen taking the same boat.

Oil: After a 5.7% plunge Oil found a stopper just above the $58 bbl. following up on Friday’s post. WTI crude oil was seen consolidated between 58.14 – 59.00 Following revelations by the Baker Hughes Rig Count which noted a drop in US oil production in a year. The total rigs fell from 987 to 983 down 5 Rigs, while US Rigs contracted from 802 to 797. Rendering some support for the Oil prices.

Gold: The Precious Metal continues to do its thing. As uncertainties weighs traders prefer to say at arm’s reach. Trading bullishly in a tight range between 1,283.25 – 1,286.85. up 0.17% at the time of print 10:00GMT

FX Market:

During the earlier European trading hours GBP and EUR stood definitely against the USD. However, The USD turned the heat back on with the DXY ranging up 0.13% between 97.55 – 97.75.

GBP/USD: The Pair was seen losing ground trading from highs of 1.2748 to lows near the support line at 1.2674.

EUR/USD: The pair, trades from in a checked range from 1.1216 heading back below the 1.2 mark at 1.1191 after surging earlier on the EU Parliamentary vote.

USD/JPY: Same, same just on a different day. The greenback i.e. US Dollar remains bullish to the JPY trading up 0.19% between 109.28 – 109.58
The Cryptocurrencies.

The BTC is up 10% BTC/USD pair trades between 7,897.0 – 8,958.3 we could be reaching the 10k levels we have been discussing. Caution is still warranted. For Crypto bulls, like myself, we take much comfort in the fact the even Facebook’s recent acquisition of the blockchain startup ChainSpace in February this year is yielding results and a reminder that the Blockchain is here to stay underscoring the possible rewards ahead

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Marketers, Dig Their Heels Into Q1 Earnings Report. Meanwhile, Nervous Traders Began To Reconsider Their Bets

Marketers, dig their heels into Q1 Earnings Report. Meanwhile, nervous traders began to reconsider their bets on the GBP. After the EU agreed to an extension for the UK’s departure from the EU to take effect by October 31^st the UK will be obliged to take part in the EU parliamentary elections on the 22^nd of May, 2019 or be forced to leave by June 1^st.

Stocks: Global Stocks, The US Stocks market is bullish however upside is maybe capped. As the 20 companies releasing their Q1 reports today may not be able to propel uptrends for long. Asia Market were seen closing mixed to flat while the EU were hopeful.

UK100: lost some steam as investors considered the verdict. However, analysts are under the impression upside movement will be resumed post mid-day GMT to trade between 7,325.5 – 7,386.0

Germany 30: Trades between 11,871.5 – 11,991.0 oscillating between gains and losses.

Italy 40: The FTSE MIB was also caught 0.21% up. Trading from the day’s open of 20,932.00 -21,197.50.

USA30: The Dowand the Nikkei were spotted trading in lockstep. Trading from lows of 26,113.5 and attempts to head to 26,224.0

Commodities:

Oil: Oil prices recede on a small built-in Wednesday’s inventories report. Ranging and OPEC’s stance to increase production should price raise beyond the targeted margin. between 64.48 -63.64.

Gold: Fell 1.15% by the time of publication. From 1,313.05 and heading down to 1,298.85.

FX Market:

With a deluge of report bound for release and Central bankers voicing their views the currencies will be seen reacting to the announcement of each of these events.

GBP/USD: Was caught trading from lows of 1.3061 tohighs of 1.3109.

EUR/USD: The pair was seen trading between 1.1256 – 1.1290 in and out of gains.

USD/JPY: After a dip to 110.91 the pair was seen hawkish trading around 111.35 with the upside noted at 111.36

The Cryptocurrencies.

After a Bullish week for the Cryptocurrencies. A general retraction is recorded amid all tokens. Some enthusiast like myself believe it could be the pause before another jump towards 6k for BTC

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Brexit Summit Crude Oil Inventories, Q1 Earnings Report & Market Recalibration.

Monday “Moons” Markets, To What Could Be A Rally For Commodities Like Gold.

The Market Is Marking – Time Around Thorny Issues Or Not!

Markets Eyes US Jobs Report The NFP, & Closure To The Trading Week.

Caveats, Caution Concerns Coos Markets.

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Markets Eyes US Jobs Report The NFP, & Closure To The Trading Week.

Markets eye US jobs report the NFP, & closure to the trading week.

It’s another Friday, Market participants are eager to close their books with some profit-taking. Thursday fundamentals backed our prognosis. With the exception of the Italy 40 i.e. FTSE MIB which went North as opposed to South.

Last month’s NFP was a flop coming in with only 20,000 new jobs. This month the expectation is for some 175,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to stay around 3.8% any surprise would be a report with more than 200k + or below the 100k for major movements as the market prices in the scope of impact.

USD is likely to be volatile for most part of the day until the NFP and Baker Hughes Rig count hit the air waves respectively.

This would not be the time to take unnecessary chances but rather a steady hand to hunt.

Meanwhile, Prime Minster Theresa May, keeps her proposal on the low burner. While Parliament fumbles for a consensus. The EU’s Chief Donald Tusk offers a 12 months Brexit extension to the UK. The impact of this decision on the market is yet to be factored in. Straining the British Pound to its elastic limits.

The US-China dialogue seems to be progressing well, to the tune that President Donald Trump declared, “we’ll know over the next four weeks” whether the Trade Deal between the two big economy is reached. Naturally the rhetoric carried the USA 30 Dow Jones above 26,300 and supported global stocks.

Tesla Shares are seen recovering up 0.79% at 269.90 after the 10.5% dip on Thursday triggered by late deliveries.

Stocks: Global stocks are likely to be unstable jumping in and out of gains. As the day’s economic data is released.

UK100: By the time of print 10:16 GMT the futures were up 0.03% at 7,343.8 although it opened at 7,344.2 it charts from lows of 7,336.8 – 7,359.5.
Germany 30: This asset could be tricky in the intra-day trading curve. Although supported by this morning’s German Industrial Production report which was better than expected. We could perhaps conclude that today’s highs may rest around the ball park of 12,035.00 while lows stand around 11,992.0
Italy 40: The FTSE MIB seems to have shelfed all negative reports as it seen up trending 0.21% at 21,214.50 with the intention of trading between 21,180.00 – 21,237.50
USA30: Stood firm climbing from yesterday’s resistance levels seen up 0.14% at the time of print. Trading from lows of 26,362.0 and keeping the revs up with the objective of getting back to the resistance of 26,447.5.

Commodities:

Oil: Despite the supply constraints oil prices are now cornered yet this week’s performance marks it as one of the best weeks for Oil prices in months. Today trading range falls between 61.83 – 62.23 and dependant on The Baker Hughes Rig Count as well as any hints from OPEC or global slow down concerns.
Gold: The Precious Metal is a tight corner. On one hand Investors know, not to veer to far from the safe haven and yet the USD climbs. Caught trading between 1,297.75 – 1,291.25 at a drop of 0.06%

FX Market:

Would it surprise you to see that trends have changed gears? Take a look at our usual suspects. The DXY indicates the USD cooling off a bit at 97.26 down 0.05% The irony is the despite this revelation other majors stand defiant to the USD.

GBP/USD: The pair managed to climb 0.08% trading between 1.3069 -1.3122 cruising around 1.3087

EUR/USD: Nothing much has changed for the pair trading bullish up 0.09% at the time of print trading in a similar range to Thursday, between 1.1219 – 1.1238

USD/JPY: The pair remained hawkish trading in between 111.60 – 111.80 up 0.06%

The Cryptocurrencies.

As Trader and investors head off for the weekend Crypto enthusiast which am one of them come to play J It seems like another fertile weekend beckons us to witness or experience perhaps another weekend rally. Unless the US-China talks sizzles BTC/USD were off recent highs however supported around the 4,900 mark, with the potential of up trending to 5,100 or even the next psychological threshold of 5,200

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Tuesday Market Tango With Oil As Co-Driver.

Tuesday Market tango with Oil as Co-driver.

The markets are blissful today ahead of the day’s weekly API Oil stockpile report. While the USD losses a bit of its edge. Naturally, the FOMC’s schooled meeting will be monitored closely to the culmination of the FED Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday. The current Rate is at 2.50% and likely to remain unchanged.

The EUR, GBP, a basket of other majors, commodities like OIL and GOLD were all bullish.

Stock:

Global Stocks were teaming up high with only 44 companies reporting. It is interesting to observe Wall Street. Ticking up. Most of the Asian market closed mixed although supported. While EU Shares shine and The US is expected to be hawkish.

UK100: Refused to wallow in negative territory as Oil prices edged up Oil investors and Oil heavy listings. Such us BP on the UK100 aka FTSE 100 reported gains which bolstered the asset. In other Words BP PLC. Is also up treading. Hint J
Germany 30:Climbs up 0.85% to trade around 11,772.0 between 11,660.5 – 11,785.2
Italy 40: After the dips on Monday, the asset was caught up 0.69% by 11:30 GMT. Ranging from 20,677.00 to highs of 20,847.50.
US30: As could be witnessed the Dow is almost nearing it resistance levels for today 26,078.0 from lows of 25,949.5m

Meanwhile, the DXY supports the view that USD is slipping. Obviously with the USD down commodity prices become affordable.

Commodities:

In tandem with Monday’s post, the commodities are bullish.

Gold: Remains bullish, today up trading between 1,302.25 – 1,308.75 up 0.47%
Oil: US Crude oil prices the WTI which is usually used as benchmark for the sweet oil. extended gains to 59.86 the current resistance level before slipping a tad however bullish ahead of the API report later today price may cross the $60 bbl. Although seen prevalent trading between 59.24 – 59.86 for most of the day by the time of print up 0.54%

FX Market:

Trends are supportive non-USD currencies.

EUR/USD: trades from 1.1334 support levels and hopes to climb to 1.1365. after which further support will be sort after. Caught up 0.16% at the time of print.
GBP/USD: The Pair remains highly capricious with tango shoes on sliding in all directions. Today with the USD down and report of the lowest unemployment rate for almost 40 years the GBP was up 0.19% the resistance level was noted at 1.3312 and support at 1.3241. further downside may be possible. Brexit saga weighs especially follow House Speaker Bercow caveat that the same notion could not be rehashed unless the content or approach is different from other deliberations.
USD/JPY: Another source which shows the USD is weaker is this pair in which the USD gave up gains to the JPY down 0.04% at 111.39 Trading between 111.16 – 111.47.

Trending News:

Boeing: Until investigators and Boeing know the exact cause of the malfunctions in their 737 Max planes share prices continue to be hammered seen down 1.77% and likely to open lower perhaps to

Facebook: is another asset to keep an eye on, however, it is expected to open with a gap up of at least 0.39 % – 0.42% trending with gains capped perhaps around 164.00

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Have an awesome week!!

Plotting Brexit And Wednesday Oil Inventories Report Drives Market.

Brexit Tailgating Fizzy’s GBP

Brexit Parliamentary Vote & A Clash of Central Bankers.

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The USD, Still Got Its Foot on the Throttle.

The USD still got its foot on the throttle, with the DXY dollar index which measures the strength of the USD vs a bunch of other currencies registering bullish intent. At 96.74 up 0.10% at the time of print. Trading between 96.62 – 96.78.

The New week begins with market participants’ eager for direction as the count down to the end of the US-Chinese trade truce at the 1st of March nears with no concrete resolution. Britain’s are also in somewhat uneasy times as PM May, scrambles to obtain better and favourable terms for Brexit. Headlines indicating and highlighting the plight of the Brexit which is causing weakness in the UK not seen since 2012 were seen splatted on the front pages of mainstream financial news outlets.

Global market slow down, exacerbated by the Sino-US trade tiffs, quantitative tightening, and general uncertainties which US domestic and foreign policies are brooding directly and indirectly, is causing side effects which in most cases forces prudent traders to stay close to the safer-havens. In case of any overheating effects from the riskier asset.

US Shale productions activities is also seen impacting Oil prices in a bearish way.

Global Markets:

Global Stocks are very jumpy. Today it is most likely, most of the stocks across the boards are going to attempt to rally. Asian share where mixed with the China 50 up 1.36% by the time of print. European shares are to be seen off 6day lows. Wall Street hopes to ride on these winds on changes with some 69 companies in the entertainment, retail, mining and banking sectors due to release their Q4 earnings reports.

US30: Was seen trading 0.36% up at 25,171.5 by the time of print 09:35 GMT. Trading from 25,017.0 – 25,213.5. Further upside is very possible.
UK100: Is tacking on gains up 0.88% at the time of print at 7,076.5. from lows of 7,023.6 aim for current resistance levels of 7,086.5and higher.
Italy 40: Trades bullishly up 1.68% climbing from 19,407.50 at 19,662.50 determined to reach 19,682.50 or even more.
Germany 30: Was seen hawkish up 0.56% at 11,006.5 aspiring to reach 11,028.5 and even further up.

Commodities:

Friday’s post on commodities, does still hold water. As the USD gains commodity prices fall. However, the strain on our usual suspects seems to come from the same source. The realization from the Baker Hughes Rig count which showed an increase in the total number of rigs to have risen to 1049 while the number of rigs for the week rose by 7 from 847 to 854. This obviously undercuts efforts by OPEC + for price stability somewhere between the $60.00bbl and $70.00bbl. Even sanction on Venezuela and Iran seems insufficient.

Oil: WTI crude oil price where seen slumping down 0.85% at 52.27. However, as closer observation shows conformity to a familiar trading range bearish trading from 52.77 heading to it support of 51.91 is not helped by some news.
Gold: As mentioned earlier gold retains its title as a default safe haven and in times like these could narrow or widen its trading range either to the upside or down side. Today Monday beginning of another earnings week, Gold is seen bearish albeit trades in a wider range above the 1300 mark between 1,318.65 and 1,309.65 seen down 0.62% at 1,310.35.

FX Market:

Market participants will as be looking forward to take advantage on the volatility surrounding the GBP. As traders and investors await reports on the UK’s Gross Domestic Product, reading on Industrial Production and a deluge of economic data releases. Analysts are under the impression that the results maybe disappointing in light of all the strain the UK is going through now.

GBP/USD: Seen volatile taking on small gains ahead of the GDP report. Only likely to reverse any small gains made later, trading between 1.2895 – 1.2943 in an out of losses.
EUR/USD: With the USD back in the driver’s seat, the EUR face a daunting challenge. Skidding 0.19% at 1.1307 current support levels stand at 1.1296 levels which could be breached today. With a capping resistance at 1.1331.
USD/JPY: The pair crossed the 110. threshold as announced in Friday’s post. Trading between 109.78 – 110.28. Up 0.39% at the time of print.

Trading on markets momentum in short intervals maybe rewarding while using later expirations for hedging.

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A volatile “Vendredi” Friday, Partially Blindfolding Markets.

A volatile “Vendredi” Friday, partially blindfolding markets. Following up on Thursday’s post as markets brace for today’s profit-taking global stocks seem on track to end to week on a positive footing. Driven by several factors, partly due to development in the US-China Trade Impasse, which has brought to light adverse results which is contributing to the slowing of global growth and stretching of emerging markets elasticity.

Global Markets:

The uncertainties no doubt has increased the market gyration with volatility highly spiced in a capricious market sentiment. Well taught out, trading strategies and predictions are completely blown out of the water, as fundamental are changing rapidly with a shortened or elongated time frame. EU shares though after showing undeceive downward trends Thursday EU open to which some analyst thought would have kept stock prices contained. Were unable to keep the lid on for too long.

Germany 30: Was seen at 10,935.20 aiming for 11,000 however, the first resistance is set at 10,958.00, Many Analysts think there could be a reversal of trends before it continues to climb again to if possible to the 11,000 levels. Downside to current support levels of 10,910 are more realistic. From the time of print 08:10GMT to perhaps 14:00GMT.

Italy 40: Was captured at 19,277.50 slightly down from highs of 19,297.50. perhaps we could see some sell-off to 19,100.00 in the EU Trading hours.

UK100: Is very bullish perhaps driven by expectation of the delivery of UK’ GDP. It was spotted at 6,899.8 sliding from 6,909.2. in as much as the asset is set to breach the 7k levels market participants are warrying this would only be a teaser.

US30: Made a run for it Thursday almost taking us to the 24k level. Unfortunately, this was not released closing at 29.953. Today the expectation is for it to get as close as possible to 24k, perhaps 23,994.00 which is the current resistance level. After which knee-jerking down to 23,920 is highly possible as recession cries are heard in what is become a protracted US government shut down. Impacting the lives of many.

Commodities:

Oil: Prices are jittery driven also by developments between China & US as well as OPEC and Saudi’s efforts to curb slumping price by limiting production and supply. Saudi Oil Minister was quoted elsewhere to have mention seeing Oil price back to $80 bbl. we are not sure if that is Crude oil or Bent. However, these efforts come in as the Saudi’s reconsider the IPO od Aramco, which is said to be in 2021. Meanwhile WTI Crude Oil was spotted at 52.80 by 08:10GMT from 50.14 heading to 52.83. there after 53.00 and maybe 53.28. Ahead of the day Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Gold: This is what we said about gold on Thursday, “With the doubts in the market Gold keeps its lustre seen at 1,297.05 by the time of print it is expected to drop perhaps to 1,290 when the trading on the USD resumes. However, upside movement to 1,298.00 is likely by the end of the day”. Today Gold is set to trade between 1,286.80 – 1,295.70 by the time of print it stood at 1,294.55 up 0.58% knee-jerking has not been ruled out.

FX Market:

EUR/USD: Behaved as expected yesterday. At the time of print the pair stood at 1.1530 uptrends to 1.1545 are likely with support levels set at 1.1496.

GBP/USD: GBP is gaining momentum on possible rumours of a postponed Brexit date ahead of the 14 January parliamentary vote. By the time of print they stood at 1.2763 upside to 1.2840 before backing down by mid-day GMT is warranted. In case the deluge of economic data releases due during the day such as Industrial Production, GDP etc. come out exceeding market consensus to the up side, the pair could head to the 1.29 level. If not down trend to 1.2710 will not be surprising. Simply put Brexit weighs.

USD/JPY: As the apparent weakness in the USD persists the JPY flexes. Set to trade in a tight range between 108.24 – 108.48. by the time of print 08:10 GMT they were caught at 108.30.

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