BOE Rate Decision, Forward Guidance & Trade Woes

Following the Fed’s Interest Rate decision on Wednesday with a bright forwarding guidance and upbeat ADP, Private sector employment report, which revealed 215k were employed, bolstering the USD to maintain its current bullish stance.

Market participants are attentive to events coming out of the UK as the BOE is likely going to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. However, what is likely to sway investors decision will be the “forwarding guidance” from Govoner Mark Carney. Which could send the British Pound either, up or down due to Brexit woes, should it be put forward as a caveat.

Q2 Earnings are still unabated with about 385 companies reporting today.

Global Stocks:

Stocks worldwide are capricious to the downside. Asian shares fell as the Sino-US trade tariffs ping pong goes into another tense phase. Analysts at Bloomberg report of a loss of nearly $220 billion in equity market value since the Trade tiffs ensued.

European Shares slipped further due to downbeat earning reports from BMW, and Siemens.

  • Germany 30: Fell 1.76% by the time of print 09:48 GMT to 12,510.36 range bound between 12,500.65 – 12,644.85
  • UK100: was down 1.1% jumping in and out of loses from 7,632.43- 7,568.25 itching for a life line up. Although reports from PMI exist that the Uk’s construction sector expanded at a faster rate in 14 months.
  • Italy 40: Plummeted by 1.82% in a tight range between 21,355.00 – 21,660.00.
  • France 40: Lost 0.74% trending down from 5,483.74-5,445.91.

Earnings from the Technology sectors kept the NASDAQ afloat. Not so for the S&P500 which seems to be plagued by underperforming earnings reports from a throng of companies. The Trade spats between the US& China also restrains advancement in Global markets.

Currencies:

  • GBP/USD has been in a bearish mood since Wednesday. On counts that 90- 91% of market participants have already acquired the GBP. Thus as the USD gained GBP sold off slightly ahead of today’s UK MPC, Monetary Policy Committee’s Decision on its interest rate. The Expectation is for a knee-jerk reaction a few moments prior and post, the announcement, at the time of print GBP/USD was 0.30% down between 1.3068 – 1.3144.
  • USD/JPY although the USD gained some ground against a basket of other majors the Safe-Heaven Yen was resilient and bullish vs. USD which was down 0.26% oscillating between 111.40 – 112.15.
  • EUR/ USD was in a dismal state the day upbeat PPI reports were unable to persuade investors to go long on the EUR.

 Commodities:

Oil price rose in early Asian trading hours. The temporal surge came as investors discovered that despite a build of nearly 3 million barrels in Crude Oil inventories as per the EIA, there was a significant drop in Gasoline inventories. Which means surplus oil could be used for Gasoline production. WTI Crude Oil price could not hold on to gains enough long as US Congress challenges OPEC’s authority and investors decipher the effects of the build up. WTI was found 0.89% down lingering between 66.92 – 68.14. while the DXY climbed 0.28% trending from 94.61 – 95.00.

The Gold spot is also on the rocks falling some 0.28% oscillating between 1,223.40 – 1,228.90 again due to the USD’s Strength and investors having a risk on appetite.  It is interesting to note that, the XAU/USD on the other has been consistently bullish ranging between1,215.24 – 1,221.15, however, may soon turn to the downside.

 Cryptocurrencies:

With no major and positive news, from the cryptocurrency front, most tokens are in a dovish state BTC/USD is struggling to hold on to gains up 0.07% at 7,578.3 although, down from today’s highs of 7,713.0.

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“Trumpnomics” Hits Market Psyche Amid Earnings & Oil Reports

The Market was slightly spooked by US President Trump, who and promised to slap tariffs on all goods out of China. Amid a very busy economic calendar day with 319 companies set to report on their Q2 earnings including companies like BlackRock Capital Investment Corp, (BKCC), Ferrari NV (RACE) and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) to name a few.

The next bout of Tariffs may be enacted today. The initial 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from China. may increase to 25%. Mr. Trump threatens, sending shockwaves to the Asian Market which has already been hit by downbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI.

The crippling effects were felt moment later in the EU market.

Global Stocks:

Global Stocks were mixed although China assures its citizens and the world to try and work out the challenges to the economy ensued by the US tariffs, constricting progress in the world’s second-largest economy.

Apple Inc. (APPL)’s Earnings reports were positive, elevating US shares, which supported the Asian Shares and uplifted EU in earlier this morning, only to have hopes dashed by the Trade War fears most of the Asian shares are expected to close low.

Germany 30: is down 0.71% in a range from 12,703.93 – 12,835.24

UK100: shed 1.16% trading from 7,752.07 -7,635.00.

Italy 40: also lot previous gains down 0.95% from 22,205.00 -21,965.00 at the time of print 12:00 GMT.

France 40: joined the losing streak a bit later down 0.04% 5,499.83 – 5,531.58

Market participants are counting on upbeat Q2 Earnings from the Financial and investment sector to uplift the sagging mood perhaps Tesla reports may bring hope to the US markets to spill onto Asia and EU.

Currencies:

  • Ahead of today’s U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), U.S. Interest Rate Decision, which is likely going to be left unchanged at 2.00% the USD jumped up. The DXY, Dollar index was up a tad by 0.01% at 94.51.
  • USD/JPY was up 0.12% at 112.04 trading between 111.70 – 112.15
  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD were all bearish as the USD rose. However, the current selloff may pave way for the GBP to climb in expectation of a possible rate hike by the BOE although 90% of the market has priced in for a rate hike Inflation and GDP reports could weigh.

Commodities:

It has been a bloodbath for the commodities with almost all metals down.

Gold was 0.44% down ranging from 1,223.70 – 1,223.70.

WTI Oil had been on a bearish path since Tuesday, ahead of today’s Crude oil inventories Oil prices a set to sink further from 68.52 down support level may be in around 67.38 or steeper depending on the weekly oil reports.

Cryptocurrencies:

The Cryptocurrencies arena has been constructing since the beginning of the week BTC/USD plummeted 1.80% below the 8k handle to range 7,469.5 – 7,830.0  and struggling to hold on to the 7500 support level.

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BOJ Stays Pat, Commodities Down, FX Jingles

As reported in previous articles, The BOJ, Bank of Japan left its Interest rate unchanged at -0.1% with a “Forwarding Guidance” to keep short and long-term rates very low for as long as needed. This and the fact that almost all the Economic Indicators, such as Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate fell short of market expectation. Naturally, the Safe-Heaven Yen was down.

Global Stocks:

Global stocks were down trotting, dragged down by the shadow of Tech companies plight. To name a few will include FB, BABA, NETFLIX & GOOG.

However, by the end of Asian and the open of EU markets, in classic Tuesday Tango day, EU Shares began staging a comeback. Perhaps the Hawkish sentiment stems from prospects of some 229, Q2 Earning Reports being released today. Proctor & Gamble. (PG), Cummins Inc. (CMI), Apple Inc. (AAPL), & Baidu, Inc. (BIDU).

By the time of print 09:00 GMT, Germany 30, had risen 0.13% to 12,817.95 with lows at 12,738.79 and highs of 12,826.85.

France 40, was attempting to hold onto gains at 5,490.56 in a tight range from 5,477.81 – 5,497.66

Italy 40 saw a significate surge of 0.79 % to 22,075.00, helped by upbeat Consumer Price Index, (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), more up winds are forecast.

UK 100 did not sit on the sidelines, rallying 0.18% in a range from 7,696.75 – 7,717.25

Currencies:

  • The Currency arena today is vibrant volatility abound, and the norms of inverse correlations with the USD is somewhat thwarted. With the JPY down, the USD stood up. USD/JPY was up 0.39% at 50, trading near current resistance levels of 111.59
  • Interestingly the EUR/USD is bullish, up 0.16% in a range of 1.1700 – 1.1731 due to upbeat economic reports, despite the fact that German data fell short.
  • GBP also retracted from yesterday’s gains temporally hit by disappointing consumer confidence. Recovers almost immediately as about 90% of marketers prices in the BOE impending rate hike. GBP/USD was bullish ranging in between 1.3114 – 1.3163

Commodities:

Although the DXY was relatively muted in a range of 94.23 – 94.46. Almost all commodities were spotted in a downtrend

  • Crude Oil WTI was down 0.54% sliding from 70.22-69.22 then slightly up at 69.75 head of today’s API report which some analysts suggest there could be a surprise buildup in stockpiles.
  • Gold Spot fell 0.29% ranging between 1,216.70 – 1,222.10, as Silver, Copper, Aluminum and Nickel flow the suit down.

Cryptocurrencies;

  • Cryptocurrency seems to be shifting sides at the moment acting in tandem with Commodities out of the top 100 tokens nearly 83% of them are down.
  • BTC/USD sheds 1.84% with more room for downtrends the current range was from 7,861.2 – 8,227.2.

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Another Active Week Featuring 156 Earning Reports!

A new week teaming with Central Banks deliberations, more Q2 earnings reports, US-China Trade saga looming, Oil shenanigans, Brexit rollercoasters. and US Jobs Report i.e. NFP, & ADP.  In light of all the possible market movers, let’s see how they impact various sections in the market.

Global Stocks:

Asian shares are in a bearish mood. Except for the Indian Stocks which hit record highs. The drop was ensued by the significant loose falling the Earning Report of some major tech companies among them FB, Twitter, an even Google.

The Plunge in US stocks affect the Asian market and spilled to the EU Markets as well.  Korean KOSPI was down 0.06% Japan 225 down 0.74% should the Bank of Japan, BOJ choose to constrict its asset purchasing program of nearly $720 billion per month as widely expected this week, the values of its Government bonds may fall. Pressuring the Yen to drop in tandem before any correction.

On the docket the Fed are also set for their meeting this week, hits for forwarding guidance is expected to point to another rate hike in September.

The Bank of England, BOE is also expected to stick to its plans of a rate hike on the 2nd of August and hinted by Governor Mark Carney.

  • UK100 was bullish this morning until it joined the rest on the European shares down 0.03%, however, a comeback is viewed as a possibility today.
  • Germany 30, was down 0.12% ranging from 12,814.65 – 12,849.48.
  • France 40, was spotted 0.19% down between 5,482.24 – 5,503.54.
  • Italy 40 did plunge 0.17% oscillating from 21,837.50 – 21,925.00.
  • US stocks have also been down trotting ahead of this today’s earning reports featuring nearly 156 companies in the Heavy Industry, Real Estate, and Providers of Financial Services.

Currencies:

  • In light of all the aforementioned, the currency arena is very active. USD the USD was slightly bullish to the Yen. USD/JPY was 0.03% up trending between 110.90 – 111.16.
  • GBP/USD has been hawkish, trading from 1.3098 – 1.3138, up 0.03% and stuck around the 1.3110, as markets prices in the upcoming possibility of a rate hike in two days.
  • The EUR also staged resilience against the USD. EUR/USD was up 0.20% ranging between 1.1648 – 1.1692.

Commodities:

WTI Oil has been in good moods. Traveling upstream 1.95% and climbing towards $70.bbl it remains to be seen if it could hold its ground in this range. 68.79 – 70.17

Gold and other Metals were subdued.

Cryptocurrencies;

BTC has been on fire recently crossing the 8k handle. With more bright new for other tokens like XRP and ETH as Nasdaq discusses cryptocurrencies meanwhile Bank of Australia tests Ethereum’s Block Chain Supply System. The Cryptos stood in the shed for a breath and perhaps in search of more clues for support.

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Closing The Week On A Positive Note For Some?..

As Market Participants get ready for the weekend coupled with some profit-taking, it is noteworthy to acknowledge the delivery of Q2 earnings report from some 61 companies such as; Chevron Corp.( CVX), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Twitter Inc. (TWTR) to name but a few.

McDonald’s and Chipotle shares did beat market expectation.

An exhilarating week comes to a close as US President Trump hails victory on the EU from the Trump-Juncker meeting which, although details are still obscured, It did have a de-escalation of the Trade Tiffs to a degree between the US & EU. Which is not so with China Alphabet held on to gains however Facebook Inc. witnessed the steepest decline, a loss of nearly $150billion on a single day, Sadly a historic snag to range around 176.11. On a positive note, the Tech and Restaurants sector supported the US an EU stock. Today Shares from Oil and heavy industries are being watched for a positive close.

Global Stocks:

Global stocks were still mixed by Friday EU trading morning. Asian shares posted modest gains however Shanghai composite, for example, was down 0.30%.

Germany 30 is up 0.22% in a range of 12,816.56 – 12,855.64

France 40, was up 0.12% ranging from 5,475.77 – 5,493.56

Italy 40 was up 0.23% trending from 21,817.50 – 21,910.00.

The UK100 was up 0.21% oscillating between 7,671.25 – 7,697.79. Earnings reports are expected to support US stocks and spilling over to Asia & EU.

Currencies:

  • All in all, the currency arena has been fair. The USD has stood its ground for the most part of the week the EUR is in search of its center bot as investors ponder on ECB president Draghi’s comments for forwarding guidance after Interest rates were left unchanged.
  • EUR/USD was ranging with tepid gains and losses from 1.1636 – 1.1744.
  • GBP/USD is down 0.02% trending from 1.3091 – 1.3123.
  • The DXY rose 0.06% oscillating between 94.43 – 94.64 rendering support to the USD to surge against some other currencies as, the EUR, GBP, MXN, However, The USD took a back seat with JPY, TRY, IDR, CAD in the meantime.
  • The Chinese Yuan managed to maintain its value despite recent routs albeit still bearish.

Commodities:

Gold is still in a bearish mood stuck between 1,219.80 – 1,224.60.  XAU/USD was 0.15% down by 08:30GMT in a range of 1,219.90 – 1,225.39.

Head of today Baker Hughes rig count report Oil prices are in contraction mood after the surge, on Tuesday and Wednesday. WTI crude trade in the confinement of 69.28 – 69.67 down 0.39%.

Cryptocurrencies;

Cryptocurrencies also plummeted after an impressive week in which Bitcoin claimed beyond 8,200. Investors blame the selloff on profit-taking with a tinge of caution from spread betters.

Volatility remains abound yet contained.

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EU-US Trade Tiffs On Ice & Market Digests Earning Reports.

Another bout of about 290 earnings reports are due to be released prior and post the US open bell among some of the notable companies are:  McDonald’s Corp. ( MCD), CME Group Inc. (CME) and a bunch of Tech, Banking and Healthcare facilitates/ firms. Meanwhile, shares of Facebook Inc.(FB) plummeted nearly 25% of its value after earnings reports missed and executives voicing concerns of dwindling profit margins in lieu of upcoming security and privacy upgrades that need to be met.

Global Stocks:

Global stocks were supported Thursday, although Asian was mixed dragged buy a slighted weakness in the Chinese market. EU Markets on the other hand look poised to gather some unwinds. Following a well assessed and conclusive meeting yesterday with Trump and Juncker which could deescalate the Trade war tensions between the US & EU. By 07:45 GMT.

  • Germany 30, rose 1.33% to trade between, 12,696.58 – 12,778.17
  • France 40, was up 0.68% ranging from 5,454.96 – 5,468.05
  • Italy 40 spreads its wings in the sun trending between 21,672.50 – 21,750.00 up 0.60%
  • The UK100 joined the bullish group up 0.11% in a range bound from 7,649.75 – 7,685.75

Currencies:

  • The USD fell to two-week lows ahead of today’s Initial Jobless claims report which seems to suggest an expected increase of 215k. the DXY was down 0.19% at 94.18 by 07:45 GMT.
  • EUR was indecisive in early EU trading hours however with the ECB on tap to comment on its Interest Rate Decision today at 12:45 GMT. EUR/USD oscillating between 1.1665 – 1.1744 in and out of gains. Depending on the outcome of the ECB President Mario’ Draghi’s reasoning for forwarding guidance the EUR could plummet below current support levels of 1.1665 or exceed current resistance levels of 1.1744. expectations are kneeling towards a downside movement.

Commodities:

Despite the USD slipping, Gold has not been able to hold on to its grounds, swayed by ongoing Trade war rhetoric, Gold spot stood between 1,226.90 – 1,235.20 while XAU/USD.  1,227.07 -1,235.24, on a bearish path.

Oil prices have been increasing since Wednesday on a surprise drop in inventories WTI Crude oil prices were in a hawkish mood. Trending between 69.22 – 69.64 up 0.13%

Cryptocurrencies;

In recent days’ market participants and Crypto enthusiast witnessed uptrends within the top 100 tokens propelled by welcoming moves to embrace or accommodate the crypto transactions. However, BTC is correcting downwards a possible profit taking sign as we head for the weekend. BTC/USD were trading down 0.79% from 8,073.0 – 8,331.8.

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