OPEC Meeting Finalization & Direction

 Following a disappointing report from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, which reported on contractions in the sector from 34.4 in the month of May to a steep drop of 19.9 in June, USD plunged from 11-month highs.

 With the USD down other majors such as the EUR, GBP, AUD, & JPY took advantage to rally amid a weaker dollar.

 The GBP rose on upbeat forward guidance from BOE, even though the BOE stayed pat on interest rates, signally August as the likely time to hike and consider winding down on its Asset purchasing program. GBP/USD was up 0.35% trading between 1.3239 – 1.3300, It seems 1.3300 is set as the first resistance level which if broken could send GBP to 1.3400handle. Although this may be too optimistic.

EUR/USD jumped back to live, up 0.37% trending in the zone of 1.1601 – 1.1673. Economic reports delivered earlier this morning give the EUR more support.  EU commissioner declares an end to the Greek Financial turmoil which may elevate the Eurozone as quantitative tapper becomes appealing for the ECB.

The gold price has been deliberating on direction Friday driven by profit-taking and the loss of the dollar’s momentum. XAU/USD were seen up 0.11% ranging between 1,268.40 – 1,268.68 by 07:48 GMT. Volatility is expected. Silver, copper, Nickel, and Aluminium are all with Bullish undertones.
 Oil prices rose today. However, its uptrend could be interrupted and impacted by the finalization of OPEC+ meeting in Vienna on Thursday and today. It is expected that an agreement to increase production will be reached. Perhaps with implication held up till Monday since most markets are closed for the weekend. OPEC+ lead by Saudi Arabia, cut production by 1.8million barrels to curb slumping oil prices a stabilize supply and demand. The efforts of OPEC + have been overshadowed by US production boost to morph into the world largest Oil producer by the end of the year or sooner.
 Oil prices in between the $60+ bbl handle. At the moment WTI price is up 0.96% gliding bullishly between 65.72 – 66.64

Asian shares plummeted as investors prudently monitor developments of the US lead Trade tariffs and China’s possible retaliation move. EU and US shares are bullish to mixed Germany 30 up, with Uk’s FTSE100, and France’s CAC40. Yet selloff may be inevitable entering into the weekend.
Cryptocurrency trades sold off, sharply erasing modest gains from Wednesday as South Korea announces further probes into the recent hack which had the perpetrators get away with over $30million worth of cryptos.

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Capricious Oil & British Pound pounding

    In anticipation of the Bank of England’s Rate Decision which is to be delivered at 12:00GMT, investors are cautiously monitoring developments of the GBP in its downtrend after dropping to 7- months lows on Wednesday to 1.3145. GBP/USD had shed -024% by 07:31 GMT, ranging between 1.3125 – 1.3178. The slight corrections came as PM Theresa May claimed victory in parliament over related Brexit matters. However with Traders recalling BOE Governor Mark Carney’s speech last month indicating rate hikes will be put off till August. GBP selloff is inevitable.

    The USD has been bullish and continued to maintain that status. USD was up against all major currencies notably with the EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD, as traders move from risk aversion. The DXY is up 0.21% trending between 95.10-95.41 cruising over 11-months highs. USD/JPY is up 0.17% at the time of print 07:52GMT with possible upside in view.

     The cryptocurrencies edge up after revelations of another hack was thawed. Bittumb stopped all transactions on Wednesday after it lost close to $31 million. BTC/USD moved to pass the 6,700 handle up 1.89% ETH/USD up by 2.99% and XRP/USD up2.42%

    Commodities got the bitter end today, with Gold down stepping with a loss of -0.61 % ranging between 1,263.60 – 1,272.00 Silver follows Gold, while Copper gains attention with Aluminium and perhaps Nickel retaining bullish trends.

    Oil has been swinging in bearishly ahead of the OPEC meeting which starts today in Austria, Vienna and ends Friday. It was reported that OPEC is divided on how much to increase productions amid resistance from some OPEC members like Iran & Venezuela who by de facto oppose an increase in production. The slumping prices will affect their profit margin as it cost them more to produce a barrel of Oil.  WTI prices have been stuck ranging in between 65.33 – 65.78 downsides are expected to at least 65.05 before corrections, or further slumps are seen. Abrupt swings are expected as investors tune into any news that may come out of OPEC+ sentiments remain murky.

    Asian Shares rose Thursday morning however quickly turned mixed. The same behavior is expected out of Europe and projected on to the US. Germany 30 dropped after Daimler automaker warned of profits getting hit by trade tariffs, UK’s100, France CAC40 and Italy40 are all to be seen in and out of gains.

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The USD is Marching on ..

  • With the US-China trade friction, unabated traders and investors are cautiously scanning for beneficial assets while in tune with market sentiment. Recent Geopolitical events have had their toll on market nerves.
  • In queue with the Fed rate hike, spreadbetters are buying the USD. The Dollar Index DXY which measures the strength of the USD vs other currencies rose 0.03% to be trading in between 94.96 – 95.30. with US yields pointing up
  • As the USD gained other majors fell. EUR, GBP, & JPY are the most notable, However, commodities were hit as well. Gold lost its safe haven luster shedding -0.29% to trade between 1,273.30-1,278.50
  • Meanwhile, Asian stocks buoyed by positive Chinese data and a thaw in the US-China trade conflict rhetoric.
  • With Asia up, European shares are likely to benefit from the up trends to push Germany’s DAX 30, UK’s FTSE 100, and France’s CAC 40  up. Driving the US with it 
  • Cryptocurrencies lost the steam it had Tuesday and could be seen in the bearish mode
  • Oil remains politically charged with eyes on upcoming OPEC meeting set for 21st-22nd June. Tuesday’s abrupt surge before the release of the oil reports, turned into a dovish trend after the API/American Petroleum Institute report reveals a drop of nearly 3 million barrels in the weekly stockpiles. Ahead of today’s Crude Oil inventories report volatility is highly anticipated. By the time of print 11:17 GMT WTI Oil was ranging in between 64.81 – 65.52 up 0.03% with further upside should the crude oil inventories report come out with a draw.

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Trade Tensions weighs on, USD Skids

A second day with Asian shares down to 4 –month lows, due to the US-China Trade tensions, this time around US President Trump threatens to impose 10% tariffs on 200 billion of Chinese produce. As Asian shares weigh, the impact is felt in with the EU and US shares as well.

The Yen gathered momentum as investors flocked to it, a resort to safeguard or hedge against volatile eventualities. USD/JPY was at 08:05 trading between 109.55 – 110.57 with nose down -0.70%
 By the time the European Market opened on Tuesday morning, the USD had been reported to have shed -0.31% versus the EUR. Trending in between 1.1572 – 1.1644

GBP has been bearishly silent ranging in between 1.3196 – 1.3273.
Gold spot flicks in hopes of crossing the psychological 1,290.00 resistances handle. Range bound between 1,280.60 – 1,286.50

 The EUR lost ground from it slight gains Monday, as eyes shift to the European Central Banking forum in Sintra, Portugal.

 The AUD, & CAD were also victims of the US-China trade tensions.

Cryptocurrencies are bullish today on new that the Freedom of the Press Foundation is willing to accept donations in Crypto sending the message across that it believes Cryptocurrencies are legit.

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Oil tumbles, US-China Trade Wars & Abenomics

  • Following one of the busiest weeks in recent times in which 3 Central Banks’: namely the US Feds, The ECB and BOJ gave their interest rate announcements. The USD retained its Bullish trend, up to 7 months’ highs. Prompted by the Wednesday US rate hike, a dovish forward guidance statement from ECB President Mario Draghi, sent the EUR sliding to the benefit of the USD.
  • The meeting of Central Bankers which starts today in Portugal is likely to cause volatility in the FX arena. Heads of the BOJ, BOE, ECB, JPY, RBA, and FED are scheduled to give statements.
  • Oil prices tumbled, with the US overproduction of Shale Oil and the threat of abandoning the Saudi-Russian lead OPEC production cuts in the next OPEC meeting looms. Crude oil was seen ranging in between 63.41 – 64.34 with a -1.28% by 08:12 GMT swings between small gains and losses are expected as investors decipher the fate of oil.
  • Gold consolidates as investors remain wary of the US-China Tariffs saga, seek to hedge with Gold. XAU/USD rose 0.13% before mid-day GMT trading around 1,277.60 – 1,282.47 with further upside seen. As with JPY acting as Safe-Haven market participants are nonetheless keeping an ear out for any directional signs from the BOJ and Koruda and Prime  Minister Abe’s administration.
  • The Cryptocurrencies have also been caught in the crossfire with most of the top
  • token in red laying in a bearish mode.
  • It is likely that the US-China Trade wars may become the primary driver of market sentiment driving markets in the upcoming day while Oil is weighed down by upcoming oil Summit on Wednesday and Thursday.
  • Asia is low with the trade-wars likely to impact the EU Shares and cause US the remain subdued specifically USA 30, France CAC 40, Uk’s FTSE’s100, Germany’s DAX 30 are all in the red.

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Central Banks Drive markets & China Braces for more US-Tariffs

 

As investors get ready for the weekend and embrace US President Trumps next bout of tariffs to be imposed on China to a tune of $50billion. The USD remains firm.

EUR is likely going to end the week at its lowest in over a year and seven months as per the MACD. EUR Dropped from it 1.18 handle to range between 1.1543 – 1.1585

The downtrend is sparked on Thursday following a very dovish forward guidance statement from the ECB Chief Mr. Mario Draghi.

The European Central Bank announced it would be unwinding its asset purchasing program from 30million Euros to 15 million euros by October and ultimately do away with the stimulus program by December with no prospects of when rate hikes could be instated, EUR/USD is in the meantime jumping in and out of losses.

Naturally, French, Spanish, Italian and German government bonds rose to smack the yields into a bearish mode, although upside trends are not ruled out. Though Italy and French flex over the immigration and migration dispute, adding to the uncertainties.

Asian Shares have been flattened. However, market participants are hopeful for better signs in the EU as Volkswagen, names a new CFO.   Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE are expected to open higher before retracting some of the gains.

As Central Banks address their various monetary policies, investors eye the Bank of Japan to see what rabbit will come out of the hat as a rate hike is not expected just yet. Likely paving the way for the USD to surge even more.

Commodities remain under pressure as USD consolidates.

Crude Oil attempted a short rally, however, range bound between 66.78 – 67.09 ahead of the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Gold could not shake off the pressure either and was found oscillating in the familiar territory of 1,300.70 -1,306.70 and shedding its one-month gains

Cryptocurrencies are slightly bullish Friday morning with hacks and regulatory measures stilling weighing.

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