Commotions in the Market

  • The week seems to be driven by the impact of US lead trade tariffs which has snowballed to a ping pong of trade wars. None the less a capricious undertone is highlighted for the day.
  • Asian Markets fell, with China’s Yuan receded to two-year lows. The Crunch spilled to the European Markets which opened slightly positive were short-lived to be pinned down by the threat of possible resignation of Germany’s interior Minister on migrations concerns
  • Germany 30 (DAX30) was trading between 12,132.93 – 12,277.62 by 08:40 GMT down 0.25% at 12,273.22.
  • UK’s 100 (FTSE100), receded 0.83% ranging hopelessly between 7,539.25 – 7,584.86 even positive reports today did not move the GBP into a bullish light.
  • France 40 (CAC40) plunged 0.91% to 5,275.57

The Commodities have also been hit hard with almost metals, energy down.

  • Gold dropped 0.39% to 1,249.60.
  • WTI Oil recedes 0.35% to trade at $73.89bbl, ranging from 72.62 – 74.00. Trump’s tweet on Saturday claim Saudi had agreed to increase productions to bring prices down was quickly refuted. Volatility is expected as eyes pray on OPEC for clear direction.
  • The USD managed to consolidate its gains from Friday. USD was seen hawkish to the EUR, GBP, AUD, and even safe haven JPY conceded to the US.
  • Market participants are looking at Friday’s NFP report to determine if the rates may be hiked once or twice before the end of the year.
  • Cryptocurrencies retreat from Friday’s highs amid news that Facebook has removed its blanket ban.
  • Reversal and corrections are expected as the day’s economic reports are delivered.

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GBP, CAD Gross Domestic Product & Trade Respite

  • The GBP and CAD are poised up tacking on gaining ahead of their respective GDP Gross Domestic Product reports. GBP/USD was up 0.34% by 08:00GMT ranging between 1.3069 -1.3184 while CAD/USD gained 0.28% to trend between 0.7534 – 0.7574. Further upside is expected with some Analyst predicting a favorable outcome for the GBP & CAD.
  • Meanwhile, Asian shares picked up Friday morning as Trade Frictions worn down ahead of the weekend. With Asian Share up, European Markets are optimistic to catch the unwinds into the Germany 30, Italy 40, UK’s 100, and France 40. All Futures were seen bullish Germany 30 was elevated 1.52%, as Deutsche Bank shares rally after successfully passing US induced Stress Tests. UK100 up 0.76% and France 40 up 1.32% at the time of print 08:00GMT.
  • Most of the Metal commodities surged from previous lows. Gold gained 0.14% Silver 0.43% to name but two. Oil although supported by supply concerns as noted in our earlier reports began correction downwards. WTI Crude was down 0.23% to 73.30 and set to be ranging between 72.94 – 73.42 of the $74bbl handle seen on Wednesday. However upward spikes are not ruled out until Suadi Arabi announce its intentions as to how much it would add to production to curb prices from skyrocketing.
  • The Crypto remain a red falling from Thursday’s upbeat mode. The Bank of International Settlements, (BIS) has categorically sidelined Bitcoin as incapable of working as money citing a list of cons. The Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings pointed out that not all criticism against Bitcoin and Altcoin are justified New to support the Cryptocurrencies, such as Facebook’s announcement to go easy on crypto ads and Tether’s issuance of some 250 million tokens did not pacify buyers to folk to the field.BTC is likely to end the week where it started below the $6k mark.
  •  Although the USD retains is firmness some majors are defiantly challenging the USD amid Friday’s profit taking and various localized economic reports that are being delivered.
  • EUR/USD was up 0.70% trading at 1.1649 while USD/JPY stayed up 0.21% at 110.71, USD/MXN reported an increase 0.12% to 19.7451. Commodity currencies like the CAD and RUB attempted to rally against the USD. USD/CAD was down 0.17% at 1.3226 and USD/RUB was down 0.19% ranging from 62.6237 – 62.8516.
    Eyes remain fixed on today’s Baker Hughes report and inflation report from the USA.

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Trade Disarray Spiced with US-GDP Reports

The USD strengthened against a basket of other major currencies, ahead of today’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports scheduled for 13:30 GMT. USD/JPY was at 110.32 with a rise of 0.06% traversing between 109.97 – 110.42 by 08:00GMT. It is evident that volatility is heightened as the day is laced with other Economic releases from the European sector which may be grim to push the EU down, while DXY, the Dollar Index jumps rallies some 0.64% from its previous close. Meanwhile, GBP hits 7-month lows.

 Asian shares lost momentum sinking to 9-months lows as the Trade Wars bite. The Uncertainties are likely to weigh on EU shares negatively and perhaps smudge the US Stocks along the way. The Germany 30 (DAX 30), was amongst the first to cringe, ranging volatilely between 12,272.84 – 12,374.19, UK100 (FTSE100) between 7,579.75 – 7,629.86 and France 40 (CAC40) trending from 5,305.00 – 5,341.09. The USD Nasdaq, DJI, USA30 may see upticks from the 13 companies releasing their Earnings reports today. such as McCormick & Company Inc, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, and OMNOVA Solutions Inc to name but three.

 Global share remains shaky driven by today’s economic reports and the upcoming EU Leader Summit in Brussels with the agenda focused on migration, security, and defense, as well as Economic and financial affairs. as well as exploring the Brexit saga perhaps to mount pressure on UK’s  PM Theresa May.

 Commodities were downbeat. Even WTI Oil which surged past the $73bbl mark took a nose dive Thursday European morning. Ranging between 72.28 – 72.89 in a comfort zone. Retreating from an almost 4-years overbought level. Which was brought on by supply disruptions, in Libya, Canada, Venezuela amid the US urging Countries to boycott Iranian Oil? India seems to be amongst the few not to heed to US outcry. Wednesday’s Crude Oil inventories report a draw of over 9million, 7 million above forecasts.

 Aluminum is also plagued by the Trade Wars in a bearish mode while Nickel tacks on gains.

Gold, on the other hand, is heading for a weekly losing streak trading at 1,251.30 with a drop of 0.38% ranging between 1,249.80 – 1,255.50. Naturally pulls Silver Down with it.

 Cryptocurrencies are attempting to gear up into recovery mood BTC/ USD was seen swinging between gains and losses in a range of 5,984.9-6,192.2 with the others like ETH and LOT demonstrating the same attributes of volatility.

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Oil Day & Some Shenanigans

The USD woke up today pined from all directions. US-Trade Tariffs saga is unabated. The DXY slipped some 0.05% vs.. a basket of some s”major” currencies, by 08:00GMT to be trading in a range of 94.53 – 94.73

Asian Shares were mostly down trotting. The Chinese Yuan fell adding to the dismal state of affairs in the Asia Pacific.

European Stocks have also been a bit skirmish. Reports from the Automobile industry were disappointing leading to a drop of 0.69% in Germany 30/DAX 30, to trade between 12,126.80 – 12,251.95.

Wall Street is relatively silent with 17 companies releasing their earnings reports today the USA 30 amongst others indices like NASDAQ are expected to post small gains.

EUR/USD was struggling for directions moving between small gains and losses in a range of 1.1622 – 1.1672.

GBP/USD was trending low between 1.3189 – 1.3234 awaiting further insights from BOE Governor Mr. Mark Carney,

JPY was the most notable profiteer as seen with the USD/JPY in a drop of -0.18% ranging between 109.37 – 110.20.

Gold prices have stunned market participants, as it lost most of its flare trading in the comfort zone of 1,255.00 – 1,261.10.

Oil Price is boosted up as US press other countries to abandon Iranian Oil, disruptions in supply from Libya, Canada, and Venezuela render support for WTI prices which is seen up ticking it is predicted to be able to cross the $71.30 threshold ahead of today’s EIA, Energy Information Administration report on Crude Oil weekly inventories. The expectation is for a 2 million draw, and this will spike prices and rightfully so, investors are finding it attractive to cap profits. WTI was ranging between 70.56 – 71.22

Crypto is mixed today shedding gains from Tuesday. With the Legal battles of Mt Gox out of the way.

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Uncertainties amid Risk-On /Risk-Off

  • US Trade Tariffs is heating up the market with capricious consequences. Risk-On /Risk-Off mode is becoming the norm for investors. A time when Fundamentals and technical don’t always agree. The Market is bracing for US President Trump’s announcement of Tariffs on Friday.
  • Global stocks have been subdued, with most of Asia down especial Chinese & South Korean shares lingered while the Japanese trumped. European Shares recalibrated into a positive mode following Monday’s selloff. The Germany 30 recovered 0.5% breaking the first resistance of 12,321 with moderate gains expected. The UK FTSE 100 & French CAC40 also posted gains. Italy 40 was the odd one out with US Share running helter-skelter. As investors await earnings reports from companies like Nike and Bed, Bath & Beyond to tip trends in favor of the US stocks. perhaps boosting the USA30 and DJIA.
  • Commodities have been messy Tuesday morning with mixed and uncertain undertones.
    Gold price plunged -0.63 % by 07:17GMT trending between 1,259.50 – 1,269.40. Analysts argue there could be more downside.
  • Oil Prices on the other kept an upbeat outlook although plagued by OPEC+ decision to increase production, supply disruption from Libya provides somewhat support ahead of today’s API/ American Petroleum Institute report on weekly oil stockpiles. A release of a draw will elevate prices, while built-in stockpiles will send prices down. It is presumed to range from 68.03 – 68.56 by the time of print 08:28GMT was up 0.22%
  • The US Dollar receded slightly allowing other majors currencies to stage a brief comeback on Tuesday morning. However, a comment from White House trade adviser Peter Navarro calming investors, that the Trade Tariffs will not be as damaging for the tech sector prompted the USD to regain grounds,
    The EUR/USD which surged to two weeks high of 1.1720, slide -0.41%. Ranging from 1.1651 – 1.1720.
  • As a sideshow, the Cryptocurrencies began tacking on gains as more react to one side report from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which squared cryptocurrency in a dim light. Volatility remains.
  • Today US CB Consumer confidence report will be elementary in gauging confidence for the USD
    The JPY is still the preferred safe heaven USD/JPY was down 0.05% trading between 109.37 – 109.80 abandoning the 110 handle. Hence the EUR, GBP, AUD, CHF, CAD, are bearish vs. USD.

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Consequences all round with some Turkish delights

The Market today seems to be plagued by the same ills as the week which preceded it and some new spice. The USD remained susceptible to the US-China Trade war as with other major currencies, shooting guns. Coupled with other local geopolitical pressures such as OPEC+ meeting summary, Election in Turkey. Brexit and the 27th World Gas Conference (WGC 2018) in Washington DC from today 25th to 29th June. Volatility is going to be stretched in unique ways.

The Turkish Presidential Elections end peacefully over the weekend with President Erdogan acquiring another five years in office. The EUR/TRY and USD/TRY surged on jubilations ahead of the official declaration, however downside for TRY is inevitable. By 08:05GMT USD/TRY had receded -1.86% ranging between 4.5343 – 4.6612. analysts believe the could be a rally of about 2-5% for the lira before dropping.

The USD yields dropped from previous highs pulling the USD back slightly. The incline between the EUR/USD up 0.09% could be used as evidence to support the claim that the USD has weakened. USD/JPY is another testament to the fact that some investors have moved to somewhat safe heaven trading. The GBP is likely to pick up a limited amount of pace as the USD unwinds.

Commodities have been slow to surge. Gold is looking to tack on small gains as USD retreats, ranging between 1,266.00 – 1,274.40. Oil prices rose Friday and throughout the weekend as OPEC, and its allies agreed to production increase which was seen by investors as a “modest’ increase and thus bullish for oil, in line with the market expectation of a raise between 300k-600k.

OPEC+ concluded with a rise of 600k-800k barrels per day. WTI Oil prices jumped to test the $ 69 bbl handle. However, lost steam as investors considered the long-term effects of oil’s outlook. Traders are likely to witness knee jerking reaction as it trades between 68.16 – 68.89.

Global indices slide, while Asian shares dropped, EU plummets Europe Banks and Industrial stocks flopping, German Business Ifo is expected to disappoint

Cryptocurrencies are on the upside after BTC plummeted below the 6000 thresholds. the vast majority of the top 100 tokens are rallying

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