US bond yields jump. This leads to futures trading sharp drop. US Inflation is up.

The dollar rose to the day’s highs against a basket of the other major currencies on Wednesday after data showing that U.S. inflation rose more strongly than expected in January. This consequently led Wall Street traders to jump out from U.S. stock futures with price drop around 1% on Wednesday.

U.S. consumer prices gained 0.5% from a month earlier and to 0.3% on a core basis, with core inflation posting its biggest gain in a year! Investors are  convinced now that Federal Reserve will raise rates twice this year as inflation firms, and an increasing chance of a third rate hike.

The inflation figures for January had been keenly awaited after signs of wage growth in the most recent US employment report rattled both bond and equity markets this month. The annual rate of inflation rose to 2.1% in January and to 1.8% on a core basis the Department of Labor said. The inflation data had been hotly anticipated after fears over rising price pressures and thus a faster rate of interest rate increases triggered the initial selloff in global equity markets two weeks ago.

Anyhow, the euro fell to the day’s lows against the dollar, with EUR/USD losing 0.46% to 1.2293 after earlier rising to a one-week high of 1.2393.

Sources: 

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex–dollar-hits-days-highs-as-us-inflation-rises-1245223

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-point-way-higher-before-inflation-1244648

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/traders-add-to-bets-on-fed-rate-hikes-after-inflation-report-1245417

https://www.ft.com/content/6800e2e6-116e-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

https://www.ft.com/content/7503afc2-10f2-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

Major Cryptonews for 10 – 14 of February 2018

So Is There a Correlation Between Bitcoin and Stock Market? Yes, But No

Cryptocurrencies have their own economy based on activity on that Blockchain. Equities have their own economy based on earnings per share multiples. The institutional overlap is essentially zero. But what could be concluded from this recent pattern across the markets is that investor sentiment can carry over from the stock market to the Bitcoin market. Because of a mainstream adoption wave that has seen Bitcoin accepted as an investable asset, there is the beginnings of a crossover.

South Korea Considers Adopting Crypto Exchange Licensing System Like NY’s BitLicense

According to a study reported, over a third of salaried Koreans hold around $5000 in crypto, while 80 percent of South Korean investors have made profits from crypto investments. Government now considers the adoption of an exchange approval system as the additional regulation on cryptocurrencies. Korean Government is most likely benchmark the model of the State of New York that gives a selective permission.

Microsoft To Implement Blockchain-Based ID System

Microsoft revealed its plans to integrate Blockchain-based decentralized IDs (DIDs) into its Microsoft Authenticator app. This digital identity would not be controlled by any centralized institution and would guarantee fully private data storage, enabling the individual to have full control of all elements of digital identity.

Dubai Gold Trader Earns First Cryptocurrency Trading License

A Dubai-based gold investment and trading firm has become the first company in the Middle East to receive a government-backed cryptocurrency trading license. Dubai gold trader Regal RA DMCC has received a trading license by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), allowing the company store cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum and other altcoins in a “deep cold storage vault” located in Almas Tower, Dubai. “We have developed what we believe is the number one most secure way of investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto-commodities.” – stated in the company.

Cryptocurrency market will hit $1 trillion valuation this year, CEO of top exchange says

Jesse Powell, founder and CEO of Kraken, said Tuesday that the cryptocurrency market would continue to see an “acceleration” of growth. Asked whether he thought the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies would hit the $1 trillion mark in 2018, Powell agreed. He told CNBC: “You’ve got a lot more kids graduating from crypto programs at universities now. I think we’re just going to see it continue exponentially from here.”

(BTC/USD) Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin price is finding support at the bottom of its triangle consolidation and may be due for a move past the resistance if buyers are strong enough.

Bitcoin price is currently consolidating, forming higher lows and lower highs inside a triangle pattern.
Price is bouncing off support and might be due for a test of resistance soon.
Technical indicators are also suggesting that the bounce could take place, possibly even leading to an upside break.
The cryptocurrency market recovery hit a wall on Tuesday, forcing the Bitcoin price back down to $8,500 and all major coins and tokens into decline as well.

(ETH/USD) Ethereum Analysis

The Ethereum price matched the index on Tuesday, declining four percent to $828 on Bitfinex. Ethereum now has a market cap of $81.7 billion, which leaves its total market share at 19.8 percent.

ETH price recently traded above the $860 level, but it failed to gain momentum against the US Dollar.
There was a break below a short term contracting triangle with support at $852 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via SimpleFX).
The pair may decline a few points in the near term, but it remains supported above the $810 level.
Ethereum price is currently correcting lower against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. ETH/USD remains supported on the downside near the $820 and $810 levels.

Hourly MACD – The MACD is currently showing a few bullish sign, but it is lacking upside momentum.

Hourly RSI – The RSI has just moved above the 50 level, which is a positive sign.

Major Support Level – $830

Major Resistance Level – $865

(BCH/USD) Bitcoin Cash Analysis

Bitcoin cash price is positioned nicely above the $1,160 support area against the US Dollar. BCH/USD may slowly gain pace and move higher towards the $1,350 level.

Bitcoin cash price is well supported above the $1,160-1,180 support area against the US Dollar.
Buyers are attempting an upside break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $1,250 on the hourly chart of BCH/USD (data feed from SimpleFX).
The pair may rise in the short term towards the $1,300 and $1,325 resistance levels.
It seems like bitcoin cash price is consolidating above the $1,160 support level against the US Dollar. There were a couple of attempts to break the $1,150-60 support zone, but sellers failed.

Hourly MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is slowly moving from the bearish to bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BCH/USD is rising and it has just moved above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,160

Major Resistance Level – $1,350

(XRP/USD) Ripple Analysis

Ripple price is following a bullish path against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. XRP/USD should move above the $0.9800 resistance to gain upside momentum.

Ripple price is finding strong buying interest near the $0.9100 level against the US dollar.
Buyers are making an attempt to push the price above a bearish trend line at $0.9550 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from SimpleFx).
The pair could accelerate higher once there is a close above the $0.9800 resistance in the near term.
There was a positive development in Ripple price from the $0.9000 swing low against the US Dollar. The price tested the $0.9100 and $0.9000 support levels on a couple of occasions. However, sellers failed to push the price below $0.9000, which prompted an upside move.

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is mostly flat with a few bearish signs.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD has just moved below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $0.9200

Major Resistance Level – $1.0250

(LTC/USD) Litecoin Analysis

Of course there is a direct relationship between yesterday’s close above the middle BB and the way stochastics are turning from the oversold territory if we check the secondary chart.

This is pretty good from a buyers perspective and all that remains is a surge past $170 as per our LTC trade plan.

If that happens today, buyers can begin picking out buy signals in lower time frames from tomorrow.

Sources: 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/so-is-there-a-correlation-between-bitcoin-and-stock-market- yes-but-no

https://cointelegraph.com/news/south-korea-considers-adopting-crypto-exchange-licensing- system-like-nys-bitlicense

https://cointelegraph.com/news/microsoft-to-implement-blockchain-based-id-system

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/cryptocurrency-market-to-hit-1-trillion-valuation-in-2018- kraken-ceo.html

Dubai Gold Trader Earns First Cryptocurrency Trading License

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-unable-to-break-through-resistance-at-9000-endures- moderate-decline/

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/14/bitcoin-price-technical-analysis-02-14-2018-sitting- tight-breakout/

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/13/ethereum-price-technical-analysis-eth-usd-remains- supported-2/

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/14/bitcoin-cash-price-technical-analysis-bch-usd- remains-supported-2/

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/14/ripple-price-technical-analysis-can-xrp-usd-gain- upside-momentum/; https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/02/14/altcoin-analysis-neo-eos-ltc-nem- lumens-4/

 

Daily Forex Core Spotlight: oil markets negative, gold bullish, EUR/USD rises up

Oil prices were stable-to-negative on Wednesday, supported by a statement that Saudi crude output would drop in March, healthy economic growth and on a weakening U.S. dollar. The WTI Crude Oil market rolled over during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see negativity flood into the market, and Brent markets continue to drift lower as well, reaching down towards the $62 level.

The Saudi energy ministry said on Wednesday that Saudi Aramco’s crude output in March will be 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) below its February level while exports would be kept below 7 million bpd. Ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar as well as economic growth were also supporting oil markets, traders said. U.S. crude is also increasingly appearing on global markets, and more is set to come as the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port starts testing supertankers for exports.

EUR/USD pair broke higher above the 1.23 level during the yesterday’s session but experienced resistance above and pulled back lower. The pair is now expected to go higher towards the 1.24 level and then towards 1.25 level eventually from here which is a large, round, psychologically significant level.The pair has massive support around the 1.21 level underneath which is unlikely to be broken. There is a certain amount of bullish pressure underneath.

Gold futures finished higher for a second day as the dollar weakened on Tuesday. The market has also nearly recovered all of last week’s loss. Gold showed limited upside reaction last week to the volatility in the stock and bond markets, perhaps because investors viewed the weakness in the equities markets as a “healthy” correction due to overvalued stocks. It looks as if the gold markets are trying to make a longer-term move, perhaps towards the $1350 level, which is massive resistance.

Sources:

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-stable-on-weaker-dollar-and-healthy-economic-growth-but-pockets-of-oversupply-linger-1242012

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/eur-usd-aud-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-daily-outlook- february-14-2018-475082

https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/price-of-gold-fundamental-daily-forecast-dollar- will-have-biggest-impact-on-gold-prices-475033

EUR/USD pair closed higher on Monday and followed through higher on Tuesday

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is climbing today, following the poor reaction to yesterday’s US budget proposals. At the time of writing EUR/USD is up by around 0.3% today, with the pairing recouping around half of last week’s losses.

The US Dollar found itself sliding against the Euro and the majority of its other peers on Tuesday morning following a lukewarm reception to Donald Trump’s budget proposals for 2019. Trump outlined his plans for a $4.4 trillion spending spree over the coming year, which despite curbs to welfare spending, would likely see the US federal deficit climb to $1 trillion next year, should they be approved by Congress.

The EUR/USD is currently moving within the upward rising trend channel since London noon on Monday. The risk associated sentiment is currently against the US Dollar after last week’s equity market rout that has favored the US Dollar as a safe haven currency.

The pair’s 4 hours chart shows that the positive tone persists in the short-term as the price is above its 20 and 200 SMAs, although the early rally stalled a couple of pips below the 100 SMA, now the immediate resistance around 1.2360. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart keeps grinding higher well into positive territory, but the RSI lost upward strength, now hovering around 57. As long as the price remains above 1.2300, the downward risk will remain limited, but the bullish potential will be clearer only with a recovery above 1.2400, unlikely for today.

Support levels: 1.2300 1.2260 1.2225

Resistance levels: 1.2650 1.2400 1.2440

Sources:

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-euro-trades-higher-as-us-dollar-selloff-prevails-
201802131430

https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd

https://www.ft.com/content/ed4e43fe-1064-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277

https://www.ft.com/content/ed4e43fe-1064-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-euro-trades-higher-as-us-dollar-selloff-prevails-
201802131430

https://fxempire.com/forecasts/article/eur-usd-price-forecast-february-13-2018-technical- analysis-474574

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eur-usd-aud-usd-gbp-075935301.html

Australian and New Zealand currencies updates: all quiet on “asian front”

Investors looking for low volatility currenciy pairs, might find something interesting here. AUD/USD was almost unchanged at 0.7863, the highest since February 7 during trading day on Monday and early on Tuesday. The National Australia Bank declared that th business confidence index rose to 12 in January from 11 the previous month, compared to expectations for a downtick to 10.

Although the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note traded over 2.9% for the first time in four years, U.S. Treasury yields did not dictate the direction of the currency this week. Instead, the price action was driven by renewed optimism towards stocks.

The main range is .7501 to .8135. Its retracement zone is .7818 to .7743. Trader reaction to this zone is likely to dictate the direction of the Aussie over the near-term.

The short-term range is .8135 to .7758. If the upside momentum continues then its retracement zone at .7947 to 7991 will become the primary upside target.

Based on the price action on Monday, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7818.

As for the New Zeland`s currency pair (NZD/USD), known as “kiwi”, the situation is the same – steady at 0.7268.

NZD/USD dropped below the 10 and 21 daily SMAs and the long upper wick with falling RSI leaves a bearish tint to the picture. 0.7200 opens a run towards the 100-D SMA at 0.7068. The upside targets 0.7520 through 0.7436.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.22% at 89.82 by 02:05 a.m. ET (06:05 GMT), the lowest since February 7

Sources:

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-below-the-10-and-20-d-smas-bearish-bias-to-07068-201802122103

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-strong-headwinds-westpac-201802130650

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex–aussie-kiwi-almost-unchanged-in-late-trade-1235243

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/aud-usd-forex-technical-analysis-has-to-hold-7818-to-sustain-short-covering-rally-474530

Oil gains 2% amid stabilization on wold`s markets

Weakening dollar helps to boost oil by making dollar-priced crude cheaper for holders of other currencies. Brent crude futures (LCOc1) rose 95% to $63.74 a barrel by 1012 GMT, up nearly 2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures (CLc1) gained $1.03 to $60.23, up 1.8%. While oil is rebounding from its biggest weekly decline in two years, a surge in U.S. shale still looms over the market. OPEC boosted estimates for rival supplies for a third month in a row as prices encourage U.S. drillers, who have raised the number of oil rigs to the highest since April 2015. Still, OPEC’s president said U.S. shale won’t derail the group’s plan to clear a chronic surplus.

U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has risen above 10 million barrels per day (bpd), overtaking top exporter Saudi Arabia and coming within reach of top producer Russia.

OPEC and partners including Russia have agreed to cut their crude output by 1.8 million bpd for a second year, but U.S. production looks set to continue to grow.

Oil prices have skyrocketed almost 50 percent since the middle of last year, but investors were said to be unsure over a number of factors seen propelling the rally. U.S. producer discipline, healthy global demand and supply disruptions were all viewed with a sense of caution among investors, according to the investment bank.

Last week’s decline in oil prices was the largest one-week percentage decline since January 2016 after the market was hit by a raft of negative factors. Data showed an increase in U.S. oil production and an industry that is poised to pump more. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar also made oil more expensive for those holding other currencies and the selloff in equity markets saw investors abandon so-called risky assets like oil.

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/oil-trades-below-60-as-shale-revival-counters-opec-output-curbs

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-gains-2-percent-as-global-markets-stabilize-dollar-dips-idUSKBN1FW02Q?il=0

https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-rebounds-after-worst-week-in-two-years-12606787.php

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Collapse-Now-Spike-Later.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/goldman-sachs-oil-market-is-unconvinced-by-the-recent-price-rally.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rebound-after-worst-weekly-loss-in-more-than-a-year-2018-02-12