An Overview Report Of US – China’s Trade War Effect On Safe Havens In 2019’s Q2

It is a known phenomenon that when the financial markets witness an economic “crisis” such was experienced in the markets recently between, the US and China’s “Trade War,” a large percentage of market participants prefer to put their capitals and investments in safe havens whether it is precious metals or currencies.

In this report, we will attempt to reveal how we have analyzed the safe havens technically and fundamentally from April to June 2019 “Q2”.

Japanese Yen

Sell USD/JPY

  • The best entry point maybe: 111.43

Stop Loss: 111.75

Take Profit: 109.70 or waiting to see if the price movement will break the support level “109.70” or not.

  • The best date: 3rd May 2019

The best entry point may be: 109.580

Stop Loss: 109.750 or if the price movement breaks the trend line.

Take Profit: 108.100 or waiting to see if the price movement will break the support level “108.100” or not. 

  • The best date: 30 May 2019

The best entry point may be: 107.640

Stop Loss: 108.100

Take Profit: 107.200 or waiting to see if the price movement will break the support level “107.200” or not. 

  • The best date: 20 June 2019

25 June 2019 was the best date for taking profits and close all sell positions in any points or levels above the support level 107.200.

Gold

Buy Gold

The best entry point may be: 1288.00

Stop Loss: 1278.00

Take Profit: 1315.00 or wait and see if the price movement breaches the resistance level “1315.00”  

  • The best date: 30th May 2019

The best entry point may be: 1325.00

Stop Loss: 1312.00

Take Profit: 1341.00 or wait and see if the price movement breaches the resistance level “1341.0”

  • The best date: 4th June 2019

The best entry point may be: 1346.00

Stop Loss: 1336.00

Take Profit: 1405.00 or wait and see if the price movement breaches the resistance level “1405.0”

  • The best date: 18th June 2019

The best entry point may be: 1408.00

Stop Loss: 1400.00

Take Profit: 1435.00 or wait and see if the price movement breaches the resistance level “1435.0“.

  • The best date: 24th June 2019

25 June 2019 was the best day for profit-taking while closing all possible buy positions, under the resistance level 1435.00.

Swiss Franc

Sell USD/CHF

The best entry point may be: 1.01488

Stop Loss: 1.02050 or if the price movement breaks the trend line.

Take Profit: 1.00050 or waiting to see if the price movement will break the support level “1.00050” or not. 

The best date: 10th May 2019

The best entry point may be: 0.99687

Stop Loss: 1.00100

Take Profit: 0.98677 or waiting to see if the price movement will break the support level “0.98677” or not. 

The best date: 3 June 2019

Buy USD/CHF

The best entry point may be: 0.99000

Stop Loss: 0.98500

Take Profit: 1.0005 or wait and see if the price movement breaches the resistance level “1.0005” or not. 

The best date: 10th June 2019

Sell USD/CHF

The best entry point may be: 0.99400

Stop Loss: 1.00100

Take Profit: 0.98677 or wait and see if the price movement breaches the support level “0.9867”

The best date: 20 June 2019

The best entry point may be: 0.9814

Stop Loss: 1.00100

Take Profit: 0.97300 or wait and see if the price movement breaches the support level “0.9730”

The best date: 21st June 2019

25 June 2019 was the best day for profit-taking while closing all possible buy positions, above the support level of 0.9730.

Cryptocurrencies: (The Odd ones In)

The cryptocurrencies market has also enjoyed some impressive upside trends from April to June 2019. Ranging from 4.095.00 to 13.868.00″, Some Investors had used the Cryptos as a hedging option. Often the unwarranted attention. Imbuing, the Cryptos as quasi safe-haven feel although they are not officially, recognized as such.

Produced by: Ahmed@Xtrade.

Further details, please visitXtrade.com. You may also leave your comments below.

Related links:


https://blog.xtrade.com/everywhere-is-trade-war-or-effects-of-trade-war-with-flight-to-safe-havens/


https://blog.xtrade.com/markets-contemplate-on-the-reliability-but-not-the-sincerity-of-the-announcement-of-us-china-trade-truce/


https://blog.xtrade.com/changing-tides-changes-trends-trade-war-tapping-adds-to-market-apprehension/

Bull & Bears Tug Of War, Oil Hops, Global Stocks Move Into High Gear.

Here we go again with the Bull & Bears Tug of War, Oil hops, Global Stocks move into High Gear.

As market gathers momentum driving by emotions at times and short term swings ensued by the Trade Tariffs antics, oil politics and Brexit tweaking as the UK searches for a new leader to provide a solution or lead the UK out of the EU.

On Wednesday, the EIA, report on Oil and Gasoline Inventories support the API report on Tuesday in that there was a substantial built in the US Stockpiles and Inventory levels. This pulled prices down to the upside of the $50.90 bbl. before reports of a sabotaged attempt which mainstream media claim was an attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Caused a petite panic of supply cuts. The truth of the matter is this does not change a thing in current fundamentals which suggests prices should between $55 bbl. to $60 bbl. if it could not sustain a $65-$70 bbl. range.

 Global Stocks: remained mixed most trading in familiar territories however indicating hawkish characteristics.

  • UK100: By 11:30 GMT the time of print, the FTSE 100 Futures were seen up 0.29% trading between 7,340.8 -7,400.8 some may be overly bullish. However, our humble analysis standing at 7,385.8 some down trending will be noted.  
  • Germany 30: The German Stocks turned bullish up 0.56% by the EU open trading between 12,061.5 -12,200.5 with most of the action occurring between 12,177.5 & 12,188.00 scalping is warranted.
  • Italy 40: The Italian FTSE opened at 20,434.50 however by the time of print it had gained 0.67% trading between 20,382.00 -20,657.50. in this range, further upside is expected before coiling up on budgetary woes.  
  • USA30: Talks of fed rate cuts amid trade war tensions the Dow is seen trading in and out of gains. Today it mostly bullish. Trading from lows of 25,897.0 – 26,113.5 by the time of print there was not enough visibility standing up 0.29%, however, upside beyond the day resistance is very highly feasible.  
  • Commodities: 

Reflecting on Wednesday’s post,

“The Commodities are also changing gears depending on which politics it’s tunned to. However, when trade woes are not looming it could be observed that a vast majority of the commodities are bullish”. This is in line with the day status quo!

  • Oil: WTI price began up trending after an over exaggerated sell-off Wednesday following reports of a small built up in inventories and stockpiles and fears of weak demand. It’s interesting to observe a shift to the upside based on tabloids news about two oil tankers that were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Meanwhile, Aramco Saudi state-owned oil refinery has decided for the first time in history to unveil it’s earning in August this transparency step helps to foster trust in the OPEC group which Saudi a leading member. Crude oil prices were spotted climbing up nearly 3% from Wednesday’s dip to 52.67 up 2.99% from lows of 50.92 heading to highs of 53.10 maybe it could breach the day’s resistance to about 53.35 before containing itself. Extreme jumps will be just close to the $54 mark.
  • Gold: The precious metal got a fair deal of attention. Seen trading between 1,335.95 -1,342.65.  By the time of print, it was at 1,340.45 and very sensitive to gravitational pull. Even with spread betters with limited visibility jumping in and out of positions

FX Market:

  • GBP/USD: After stretching the USD the Cable was seen edgy and indecisive standing at 1.2676 up 0.01% with the intended range between 1.2663 – 1.2708
  • EUR/USD: The pair were caught bullish at 1.1291 up 0.04% trading from 1.1287-1.1304 With the RSI lurking around 68-70 down trending or corrections may be possible if the US reports on Jobless Claims and Housing Price index does not overly disappoint expectations.
  • USD/JPY: “The battle for dominance” it is being a challenging week for the pair with each yanking the other to their advantage. The pair were seen at 108.43 down 0.06% trading between 108.17 and 108.53 Once again scalping could be warranted.
  • The Cryptocurrencies.

So there was a delay in the forecast however here we are Thursday with the Crypto arena sizzling. The BTC/USD has noted at 8,088.3 with a trading range set between 7,937.0 -8,250.0 meaning by the time of print 11:50 GMT it had already reached it daily resistances and backing down. After which uptrends back to the day resistance or close to it is expected.

Further details, please visit Xtrade.com. You may also leave your comments below.

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As the results of the EU parliamentary elections results provide some sort of comfort in that most are parties are pro EU. However, the silver lining here would be that UK’s Nigel Farage’s pro-Brexit party won. Both the US and the UK started the week with holidays, For the US it Memorial Day while the UK commemorates Spring Bank Holiday on a light economic calendar day, which no doubt increases the market capriciousness the decreased trading volumes as result keeps market participants on tiptoes. Some investors will be using these market breaks to reassess their positions. While other grapple on the what seems like an ensuing of tech war with Huawei getting caught in the crossfires.

Global Stocks:

In line with Friday’s post, most of the global stocks ended up closing positively for the weekend enabling some rewarding profit taking. Especially when US President decided to turn down the heat on the Trade Tensions with China in a time when the Chinese government has also decided to put on gloves and dish out some blows to the US economy.

  • USA30: With the US and UK markets closed there are no Q1 earning reports today boost or pressure wall street. Trading sideways between 25,590.5 – 25,694.5 in and out of gains. The only company that may report today, perhaps could be Nordic American Offshore Ltd. If it’s not moved to Tuesday.
  • UK100: Despite PM. Theresa Mays resignation. The FTSE 100 Futures are contained in a similar range to Friday and still bullish with markets closed the trading range could oscillate between 7,258.9 – 7,305.7. however, stagnant around 7,274.00 or up 0.16%
  • Germany 30: Managed to climb and consolidate above the 12K threshold. Trading between 12,013.8 – 12,119.5 by the time of print up 0.49% abrupt up or down swings may be inevitable.
  • Italy 40: Opened at 20,595.00 however, displays hawkish tendencies in a trading range between 20,467.00 – 20,672.00

Commodities:

Commodities like all other assets are also reacting to market dynamics brought on by the socio-political whims over various countries. Silver shares are likely to follow Gold. While Copper and Oil may be seen taking the same boat.

Oil: After a 5.7% plunge Oil found a stopper just above the $58 bbl. following up on Friday’s post. WTI crude oil was seen consolidated between 58.14 – 59.00 Following revelations by the Baker Hughes Rig Count which noted a drop in US oil production in a year. The total rigs fell from 987 to 983 down 5 Rigs, while US Rigs contracted from 802 to 797. Rendering some support for the Oil prices.

Gold: The Precious Metal continues to do its thing. As uncertainties weighs traders prefer to say at arm’s reach. Trading bullishly in a tight range between 1,283.25 – 1,286.85. up 0.17% at the time of print 10:00GMT

FX Market:

During the earlier European trading hours GBP and EUR stood definitely against the USD. However, The USD turned the heat back on with the DXY ranging up 0.13% between 97.55 – 97.75.

  • GBP/USD: The Pair was seen losing ground trading from highs of 1.2748 to lows near the support line at 1.2674.
  • EUR/USD: The pair, trades from in a checked range from 1.1216 heading back below the 1.2 mark at 1.1191 after surging earlier on the EU Parliamentary vote.
  • USD/JPY: Same, same just on a different day. The greenback i.e.  US Dollar remains bullish to the JPY trading up 0.19% between 109.28 – 109.58
  • The Cryptocurrencies.

The BTC is up 10% BTC/USD pair trades between 7,897.0 – 8,958.3 we could be reaching the 10k levels we have been discussing. Caution is still warranted. For Crypto bulls, like myself, we take much comfort in the fact the even Facebook’s recent acquisition of the blockchain startup ChainSpace in February this year is yielding results and a reminder that the Blockchain is here to stay underscoring the possible rewards ahead

Further details, please visit Xtrade.com. You may also leave your comments below.

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Marketers, Dig Their Heels Into Q1 Earnings Report. Meanwhile, Nervous Traders Began To Reconsider Their Bets

Marketers, dig their heels into Q1 Earnings Report. Meanwhile, nervous traders began to reconsider their bets on the GBP. After the EU agreed to an extension for the UK’s departure from the EU to take effect by October 31st the UK will be obliged to take part in the EU parliamentary elections on the 22nd of May, 2019 or be forced to leave by June 1st.

Stocks: Global Stocks, The US Stocks market is bullish however upside is maybe capped. As the 20 companies releasing their Q1 reports today may not be able to propel uptrends for long. Asia Market were seen closing mixed to flat while the EU were hopeful.

UK100: lost some steam as investors considered the verdict. However, analysts are under the impression upside movement will be resumed post mid-day GMT to trade between 7,325.5 – 7,386.0

Germany 30: Trades between 11,871.5 – 11,991.0 oscillating between gains and losses.

Italy 40: The FTSE MIB was also caught 0.21% up. Trading from the day’s open of 20,932.00 -21,197.50.  

USA30: The Dowand the Nikkei were spotted trading in lockstep. Trading from lows of 26,113.5 and attempts to head to 26,224.0

Commodities:

Oil: Oil prices recede on a small built-in Wednesday’s inventories report. Ranging and OPEC’s stance to increase production should price raise beyond the targeted margin. between 64.48 -63.64.

Gold: Fell 1.15% by the time of publication. From 1,313.05 and heading down to 1,298.85.

FX Market:

With a deluge of report bound for release and Central bankers voicing their views the currencies will be seen reacting to the announcement of each of these events.

GBP/USD: Was caught trading from lows of 1.3061 tohighs of 1.3109.

EUR/USD: The pair was seen trading between 1.1256 – 1.1290 in and out of gains.

USD/JPY: After a dip to 110.91 the pair was seen hawkish trading around 111.35 with the upside noted at 111.36

The Cryptocurrencies.

After a Bullish week for the Cryptocurrencies. A general retraction is recorded amid all tokens. Some enthusiast like myself believe it could be the pause before another jump towards 6k for BTC   

Further details, please visit Xtrade.com. You may also leave your comments below.

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Markets Eyes US Jobs Report The NFP, & Closure To The Trading Week.

Markets eye US jobs report the NFP, & closure to the trading week.

It’s another Friday, Market participants are eager to close their books with some profit-taking. Thursday fundamentals backed our prognosis. With the exception of the Italy 40 i.e. FTSE MIB which went North as opposed to South.

Last month’s NFP was a flop coming in with only 20,000 new jobs. This month the expectation is for some 175,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to stay around 3.8% any surprise would be a report with more than 200k + or below the 100k for major movements as the market prices in the scope of impact.

USD is likely to be volatile for most part of the day until the NFP and Baker Hughes Rig count hit the air waves respectively.

This would not be the time to take unnecessary chances but rather a steady hand to hunt.

Meanwhile, Prime Minster Theresa May, keeps her proposal on the low burner. While Parliament fumbles for a consensus. The EU’s Chief Donald Tusk offers a 12 months Brexit extension to the UK. The impact of this decision on the market is yet to be factored in. Straining the British Pound to its elastic limits.

The US-China dialogue seems to be progressing well, to the tune that President Donald Trump declared, “we’ll know over the next four weeks” whether the Trade Deal between the two big economy is reached. Naturally the rhetoric carried the USA 30 Dow Jones above 26,300 and supported global stocks.

Tesla Shares are seen recovering up 0.79% at 269.90 after the 10.5% dip on Thursday triggered by late deliveries.

Stocks: Global stocks are likely to be unstable jumping in and out of gains. As the day’s economic data is released.

  • UK100: By the time of print 10:16 GMT the futures were up 0.03% at 7,343.8 although it opened at 7,344.2 it charts from lows of 7,336.8 – 7,359.5.
  • Germany 30: This asset could be tricky in the intra-day trading curve. Although supported by this morning’s German Industrial Production report which was better than expected. We could perhaps conclude that today’s highs may rest around the ball park of 12,035.00 while lows stand around 11,992.0
  • Italy 40: The FTSE MIB seems to have shelfed all negative reports as it seen up trending 0.21% at 21,214.50 with the intention of trading between 21,180.00 – 21,237.50
  • USA30: Stood firm climbing from yesterday’s resistance levels seen up 0.14% at the time of print. Trading from lows of 26,362.0 and keeping the revs up with the objective of getting back to the resistance of 26,447.5.

Commodities:

  • Oil: Despite the supply constraints oil prices are now cornered yet this week’s performance marks it as one of the best weeks for Oil prices in months. Today trading range falls between 61.83 – 62.23 and dependant on The Baker Hughes Rig Count as well as any hints from OPEC or global slow down concerns.
  • Gold: The Precious Metal is a tight corner. On one hand Investors know, not to veer to far from the safe haven and yet the USD climbs. Caught trading between 1,297.75 – 1,291.25 at a drop of 0.06%

FX Market:

Would it surprise you to see that trends have changed gears? Take a look at our usual suspects. The DXY indicates the USD cooling off a bit at 97.26 down 0.05% The irony is the despite this revelation other majors stand defiant to the USD.

GBP/USD: The pair managed to climb 0.08% trading between 1.3069 -1.3122 cruising around 1.3087

EUR/USD: Nothing much has changed for the pair trading bullish up 0.09% at the time of print trading in a similar range to Thursday, between 1.1219 – 1.1238

USD/JPY: The pair remained hawkish trading in between 111.60 – 111.80 up 0.06%

The Cryptocurrencies.

As Trader and investors head off for the weekend Crypto enthusiast which am one of them come to play  J It seems like another fertile weekend beckons us to witness or experience perhaps another weekend rally. Unless the US-China talks sizzles BTC/USD were off recent highs however supported around the 4,900 mark, with the potential of up trending to 5,100 or even the next psychological threshold of 5,200      

Further details, please visit Xtrade.com. You may also leave your comments below.

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Tuesday Market Tango With Oil As Co-Driver.

Tuesday Market tango with Oil as Co-driver.

The markets are blissful today ahead of the day’s weekly API Oil stockpile report.  While the USD losses a bit of its edge. Naturally, the FOMC’s schooled meeting will be monitored closely to the culmination of the FED Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday. The current Rate is at 2.50% and likely to remain unchanged.

The EUR, GBP, a basket of other majors, commodities like OIL and GOLD were all bullish.  

Stock:

Global Stocks were teaming up high with only 44 companies reporting. It is interesting to observe Wall Street. Ticking up. Most of the Asian market closed mixed although supported. While EU Shares shine and The US is expected to be hawkish.

  • UK100: Refused to wallow in negative territory as Oil prices edged up Oil investors and Oil heavy listings. Such us BP on the UK100 aka FTSE 100 reported gains which bolstered the asset. In other Words BP PLC. Is also up treading. Hint J
  • Germany 30:Climbs up 0.85% to trade around 11,772.0 between 11,660.5 – 11,785.2
  • Italy 40: After the dips on Monday, the asset was caught up 0.69% by 11:30 GMT. Ranging from 20,677.00 to highs of 20,847.50.
  • US30: As could be witnessed the Dow is almost nearing it resistance levels for today 26,078.0 from lows of 25,949.5m

Meanwhile, the DXY supports the view that USD is slipping. Obviously with the USD down commodity prices become affordable.

Commodities:

In tandem with Monday’s post, the commodities are bullish.

  • Gold: Remains bullish, today up trading between 1,302.25 – 1,308.75 up 0.47%
  • Oil: US Crude oil prices the WTI which is usually used as benchmark for the sweet oil. extended gains to 59.86 the current resistance level before slipping a tad however bullish ahead of the API report later today price may cross the $60 bbl. Although seen prevalent trading between 59.24 – 59.86 for most of the day by the time of print up 0.54%

FX Market:

Trends are supportive non-USD currencies.

  • EUR/USD: trades from 1.1334 support levels and hopes to climb to 1.1365. after which further support will be sort after. Caught up 0.16% at the time of print.
  • GBP/USD: The Pair remains highly capricious with tango shoes on sliding in all directions. Today with the USD down and report of the lowest unemployment rate for almost 40 years the GBP was up 0.19% the resistance level was noted at 1.3312 and support at 1.3241. further downside may be possible.  Brexit saga weighs especially follow House Speaker Bercow caveat that the same notion could not be rehashed unless the content or approach is different from other deliberations.
  • USD/JPY: Another source which shows the USD is weaker is this pair in which the USD gave up gains to the JPY down 0.04% at 111.39 Trading between 111.16 – 111.47.

Trending News:

Boeing: Until investigators and Boeing know the exact cause of the malfunctions in their 737 Max planes share prices continue to be hammered seen down 1.77% and likely to open lower perhaps to

Facebook: is another asset to keep an eye on, however, it is expected to open with a gap up of at least 0.39 % – 0.42% trending with gains capped perhaps around 164.00

Further details, please visit Xtrade.com. You may also leave your comments below.

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Have an awesome week!!

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