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The USD, Still Got Its Foot on the Throttle.

The USD still got its foot on the throttle, with the DXY dollar index which measures the strength of the USD vs a bunch of other currencies registering bullish intent. At 96.74 up 0.10% at the time of print. Trading between 96.62 – 96.78.

The New week begins with market participants’ eager for direction as the count down to the end of the US-Chinese trade truce at the 1st of March nears with no concrete resolution. Britain’s are also in somewhat uneasy times as PM May, scrambles to obtain better and favourable terms for Brexit. Headlines indicating and highlighting the plight of the Brexit which is causing weakness in the UK not seen since 2012 were seen splatted on the front pages of mainstream financial news outlets.

Global market slow down, exacerbated by the Sino-US trade tiffs, quantitative tightening, and general uncertainties which US domestic and foreign policies are brooding directly and indirectly, is causing side effects which in most cases forces prudent traders to stay close to the safer-havens. In case of any overheating effects from the riskier asset.

US Shale productions activities is also seen impacting Oil prices in a bearish way.

Global Markets:

Global Stocks are very jumpy. Today it is most likely, most of the stocks across the boards are going to attempt to rally. Asian share where mixed with the China 50 up 1.36% by the time of print. European shares are to be seen off 6day lows. Wall Street hopes to ride on these winds on changes with some 69 companies in the entertainment, retail, mining and banking sectors due to release their Q4 earnings reports.

US30: Was seen trading 0.36% up at 25,171.5 by the time of print 09:35 GMT. Trading from 25,017.0 – 25,213.5. Further upside is very possible.
UK100: Is tacking on gains up 0.88% at the time of print at 7,076.5. from lows of 7,023.6 aim for current resistance levels of 7,086.5and higher.
Italy 40: Trades bullishly up 1.68% climbing from 19,407.50 at 19,662.50 determined to reach 19,682.50 or even more.
Germany 30: Was seen hawkish up 0.56% at 11,006.5 aspiring to reach 11,028.5 and even further up.

Commodities:

Friday’s post on commodities, does still hold water. As the USD gains commodity prices fall. However, the strain on our usual suspects seems to come from the same source. The realization from the Baker Hughes Rig count which showed an increase in the total number of rigs to have risen to 1049 while the number of rigs for the week rose by 7 from 847 to 854. This obviously undercuts efforts by OPEC + for price stability somewhere between the $60.00bbl and $70.00bbl. Even sanction on Venezuela and Iran seems insufficient.

Oil: WTI crude oil price where seen slumping down 0.85% at 52.27. However, as closer observation shows conformity to a familiar trading range bearish trading from 52.77 heading to it support of 51.91 is not helped by some news.
Gold: As mentioned earlier gold retains its title as a default safe haven and in times like these could narrow or widen its trading range either to the upside or down side. Today Monday beginning of another earnings week, Gold is seen bearish albeit trades in a wider range above the 1300 mark between 1,318.65 and 1,309.65 seen down 0.62% at 1,310.35.

FX Market:

Market participants will as be looking forward to take advantage on the volatility surrounding the GBP. As traders and investors await reports on the UK’s Gross Domestic Product, reading on Industrial Production and a deluge of economic data releases. Analysts are under the impression that the results maybe disappointing in light of all the strain the UK is going through now.

GBP/USD: Seen volatile taking on small gains ahead of the GDP report. Only likely to reverse any small gains made later, trading between 1.2895 – 1.2943 in an out of losses.
EUR/USD: With the USD back in the driver’s seat, the EUR face a daunting challenge. Skidding 0.19% at 1.1307 current support levels stand at 1.1296 levels which could be breached today. With a capping resistance at 1.1331.
USD/JPY: The pair crossed the 110. threshold as announced in Friday’s post. Trading between 109.78 – 110.28. Up 0.39% at the time of print.

Trading on markets momentum in short intervals maybe rewarding while using later expirations for hedging.

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The Slow Slide Friday with Greenback- USD as Boss.

Unsustained Proliferation With Market Trends, Twitter Signals.

A volatile “Vendredi” Friday, Partially Blindfolding Markets.

A volatile “Vendredi” Friday, partially blindfolding markets. Following up on Thursday’s post as markets brace for today’s profit-taking global stocks seem on track to end to week on a positive footing. Driven by several factors, partly due to development in the US-China Trade Impasse, which has brought to light adverse results which is contributing to the slowing of global growth and stretching of emerging markets elasticity.

Global Markets:

The uncertainties no doubt has increased the market gyration with volatility highly spiced in a capricious market sentiment. Well taught out, trading strategies and predictions are completely blown out of the water, as fundamental are changing rapidly with a shortened or elongated time frame. EU shares though after showing undeceive downward trends Thursday EU open to which some analyst thought would have kept stock prices contained. Were unable to keep the lid on for too long.

Germany 30: Was seen at 10,935.20 aiming for 11,000 however, the first resistance is set at 10,958.00, Many Analysts think there could be a reversal of trends before it continues to climb again to if possible to the 11,000 levels. Downside to current support levels of 10,910 are more realistic. From the time of print 08:10GMT to perhaps 14:00GMT.

Italy 40: Was captured at 19,277.50 slightly down from highs of 19,297.50. perhaps we could see some sell-off to 19,100.00 in the EU Trading hours.

UK100: Is very bullish perhaps driven by expectation of the delivery of UK’ GDP. It was spotted at 6,899.8 sliding from 6,909.2. in as much as the asset is set to breach the 7k levels market participants are warrying this would only be a teaser.

US30: Made a run for it Thursday almost taking us to the 24k level. Unfortunately, this was not released closing at 29.953. Today the expectation is for it to get as close as possible to 24k, perhaps 23,994.00 which is the current resistance level. After which knee-jerking down to 23,920 is highly possible as recession cries are heard in what is become a protracted US government shut down. Impacting the lives of many.

Commodities:

Oil: Prices are jittery driven also by developments between China & US as well as OPEC and Saudi’s efforts to curb slumping price by limiting production and supply. Saudi Oil Minister was quoted elsewhere to have mention seeing Oil price back to $80 bbl. we are not sure if that is Crude oil or Bent. However, these efforts come in as the Saudi’s reconsider the IPO od Aramco, which is said to be in 2021. Meanwhile WTI Crude Oil was spotted at 52.80 by 08:10GMT from 50.14 heading to 52.83. there after 53.00 and maybe 53.28. Ahead of the day Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Gold: This is what we said about gold on Thursday, “With the doubts in the market Gold keeps its lustre seen at 1,297.05 by the time of print it is expected to drop perhaps to 1,290 when the trading on the USD resumes. However, upside movement to 1,298.00 is likely by the end of the day”. Today Gold is set to trade between 1,286.80 – 1,295.70 by the time of print it stood at 1,294.55 up 0.58% knee-jerking has not been ruled out.

FX Market:

EUR/USD: Behaved as expected yesterday. At the time of print the pair stood at 1.1530 uptrends to 1.1545 are likely with support levels set at 1.1496.

GBP/USD: GBP is gaining momentum on possible rumours of a postponed Brexit date ahead of the 14 January parliamentary vote. By the time of print they stood at 1.2763 upside to 1.2840 before backing down by mid-day GMT is warranted. In case the deluge of economic data releases due during the day such as Industrial Production, GDP etc. come out exceeding market consensus to the up side, the pair could head to the 1.29 level. If not down trend to 1.2710 will not be surprising. Simply put Brexit weighs.

USD/JPY: As the apparent weakness in the USD persists the JPY flexes. Set to trade in a tight range between 108.24 – 108.48. by the time of print 08:10 GMT they were caught at 108.30.

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Markets Brace For Some Profit-taking

Markets brace for some profit-taking following the Sino-US trade negotiations which injected a dose of optimism at the beginning of the week, However, as “hope” keeps getting slapped in the face. We are likely to see some retractions.
Although market participants are to assume that the meetings went well from US President Trump’s tweets, details are still inconspicuous. Causing Traders to avert risk i.e. especially with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on tap to speak perhaps downplaying the prospect of future rate hikes. Prompting investors to consider other viable options most flocking back to the safe haven, GOLD, JPY, and CHF, even the AUD gains vs the USD as AUD is a commodity currency moving in tandem with GOLD just as the CAD is affected by OIL.
Global Markets:
Although Asian Shares rose on Thursday Asian open on the backdrop of the USD and perhaps more stimulus from China. EU shares where not so hopeful as investors. Decipher the current condition brought on by the lack of a consistent and immediate resolution to resolve the trade impasse.

Germany 30: Was caught down 0.66% at 10,787.00 from lows of 10,783 and highs of 10,880.50 swing in and out of gains to the downside is likely the game plan today.
Italy 40: ranging between 19,145.00 to18,945.00 down 0.41% at 19,012.50 by the time of print 08:48GMT.
UK100: Was oscillating between highs of 6,891.0 and lows of 6,798.5 down 0.58% at 6,817.0
US30: Seems to be shedding it recent gains sliding from 23,844.5 to 23,689.0 and further downside may be visible by the end of the day by the time of print it stood at 23,709.5 down 0.49%

Commodities:

Oil: Rose to 52.21 as Saudi gave details to how much it was willing to cut export which was nearly by 800,000 barrels coupled with some-what manageable crude oil inventories which, reported a drop of 1.680 million barrels vs. the forecast of a drop of 2.400million barrels.
Gold: With the doubts in the market Gold keeps its luster seen at 1,297.05 by the time of print it is expected to drop perhaps to 1,290 when the trading on the USD resumes. However, upside movement to 1,298.00 is likely by the end of the day.

FX Market:

EUR/USD: The pair became hawkish late Wednesday rising to 1.1570 on a weaker dollar and fed minutes. There is an expectation for the EUR to climb perhaps hitting the 1.1600. however, as the USD tries to regain ground a drop to 1.1515 could be realized before up ticking.
GBP/USD: The pair crossed the targets set for yesterday to 1.2802 and like clockwork begins to shed gains, seen trending around 1.2764 down 0.19% with a support set at 1.2748.
USD/JPY: The USD weakened allowing the JPY to gain. The pair were spotted near support lines of 107.7. However, with the DXY climbing from 95.03 up 0.09%. The USD/JPY may climb back into the 108 thresholds perhaps 108.30 could be the resistance and level.

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Related Links:
https://blog.xtrade.com/homepage/all-eyes-on-us-fed-munitescad-interest-rate-oil-inventoriesreport/
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-thursday-1743227

All Eyes On US Fed Munites,CAD Interest Rate, & Oil inventories,report

All eyes on US Fed minutes, Canadian interest rate decision and Oil inventories report. Market participants are hunting. Meanwhile, the US-China talk enters into its 3rd day, with the progress thus far encouraging. Despite the US government’s partial shutdown in demand for assistance in constructing the border Wall with Mexico Which enters its 3rd week., President Trump has offered the use of steel instead of concrete. Perhaps a sleek attempt to put steel stocks up on the charts.
The positive feedback from the Sino-US trade & tariff negotiations boosted the Asian markets rendering some optimism in global markets since the onset of the Trade War tiffs which has left markets attempting to recover from a significant clamp down.
Global Markets:

Germany 30: Is bullish up 0.46% at 10,874.5 by the time of print 08:30 GMT, set to climb to highs at 10,950 from lows of 10,812.00
Italy 40: Was spotted at 19,067.50 coming from 18,940.00 and trying to head back to beyond its current resistance levels of 19,107.50.
UK100: Hawkish surging 0.68% by the time of print to 6,908.53 from 6,892.50 -6,921.50
US30: Registered a triple-digit boost on Tuesday and the markets were encouraged by developments in the US-China talks, which enters into its 3rd day of deliberation. Ranging from 23,716.0 – 23,888.0. up 0.44% at the time of print. almost all the FAANG and Tech stocks are likely to rally, up.

Commodities:

Oil: The API revealed a drop of nearly 6.5 million barrels this and the progress between the two largest economies, allowed the price to rally, hitting the %49 bbl. and climbing to $50.20 the anticipation is for a rise to 51.10 or beyond before the crude oil inventories report is released at 15:30 GMT.
Gold: Meanwhile Gold swings in out of losses. Pressured down to targets of ranging between lows of 1,282.05-1,288.10

Other commodities like copper, Aluminium, and Steel edge up while Silver walks in tandem with Gold.
FX Market:

EUR/USD: Bullish at 1.1475 some weakness will be spotted as the day’s economic data is released however, a surge to 1.1482 is likely possible again.
GBP/USD: The pair was seen 0.48% up at 1.2771 and set rally to 1.27780 before losing steam as Brexit bites.
USD/JPY: They managed to cross the 109 targets before receding into the 108 territories, found ranging between 108.68 -109.00 upside movement back to 109+ is very likely on volatility in the afternoon of the EU open.

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Related Links:
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-wednesday-1742011
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/uae-oil-minister-on-president-donald-trump-and-opec.html

Without Any Concrete Concessions, Market participants Jump

Without any concrete concessions, Market participants had excitedly jumped on the bandwagon that trends were going to surge with the US & China back at the table and perhaps the prospects of future US rate hikes were put on a slow burner. Unfortunately, the trends could not carry the sentimental burden much further without a challenge.
Although Global markets rallied most of them disappointed by not reaching their intraday target. Fumbling along the way as investors considered the outcome of the status quo.
Today’s calendar is fully loaded with sentimental indicators such as the EU Consumer Confidence, Service Sentiment, Industrial sentiment to name a few. Meanwhile, the US will be releasing stats on its Job Openings (JOLTS), API weekly Crude Oil stockpiles, Imports & Exports to gauge the strength of the USD.
Global Markets:
Monday’s prognosis that Wall Street was set for a positive open. Unless the US-China negotiations were to hit a snag manifested.

US30: Acted as forecasted remaining in familiar territory ranging from 23,498.0 – 23,662.0. by the time of print 08:15GMT it was spotted at 23,498.0 uptrends to 23,800 could be very feasible. As US Tech stocks attempt to recoup gains.
Germany 30: Was seen at 10,780.50 from 10,732.5 heading to 10,805.0 and perhaps beyond 10,820 .0
Italy 40: has been oscillating between 18,862.50 -19,545.00 caught at 19,007.50 changing gears for a possible steep climb up.
UK100: Has also been roller-coasting in a similar range to yesterday 6,740.0 – 6,805.0 up 0.51% at 6,778.8 and aiming to remain above the 6,8k for the day. Analysts think a more realistic number would be around (6,790.00 to 6,795.00)

Commodities:

Oil: Ahead of today’s American Petroleum Institute’s weekly crude oil stockpile, WTI Oil attempts to rally back to the $49bbl. mark before the report is released at 21:30 GMT. Awesome time for those in Australia. Ranging between 48.32 – 48.95
Gold: Investors verge out on risk-on mood. Neglecting the safe havens for a while. GOLD was spotted at 1,283.45 down -0.50% from 1,291.25 and it support levels at 1,282.75
Copper: Shares are bound to rally with the US- & China talking at least a surge of a 1%which is likely from 2.625-2.652

FX Market:
The DXY indicates the USD is consolidating seen up 0.15% from 95.68 -95.96. the apparent recovery but the EUR and other majors at odds with the USD gaining.

EUR/USD: The pair lost some of it mojo seen stuck around 1.1437 down 0.32% from 1.1485 heading to 1.1433 and lower if the economic data disappoints.
GBP/USD: GBP was pressured down to 1.2760 by the time of the EU open. As stocks prepare for a lift upwards on rumors of a better, House Price Index report. Due 08:30GMT. The pair could go as low as 1.2748 before corrections are seen.
USD/JPY: With “risk” back on the USD rallied against the JPY at the time of print was at 108.92 a dip to 108.60 is plausible before maybe rallying back to 109+

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Related Links:
https://blog.xtrade.com/homepage/the-market-is-teaming-up-with-action-and-trading-options/
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/uk-shares-jump-as-investors-flock-back-to-retailers-hope-for-trade-deal-1419676

The Market Is Teaming Up with Action And Trading Options

The Market is teaming up with action and trading options, following Friday’s better than expected NFP report adding (315,000) which sent the USD up momentarily until Fed Chair’ Jay Powell’s speech in which, Investors interpreted his usage of the words “patient” as an attribute to “forward guidance” to be a caveat. Thus moving to the EUR, AUD, and even the GBP and saw some increased activities. The DXY gives clear evidence of the fall down 0.25% at the time of print at 95.94 with its nose down towards 95.80.
Further, developments in a dialogue between the US & China to resolve the impending Trade Tension was welcomed by Global markets. Most of the Asian stocks climbed early Monday Asian Trading hours the sentiments were seen carrying the EU and likely the US up.
The Negotiations between the two economies also helped the comedies sector keeping WTI supported and increasing demand or sales for copper, aluminum and steel.
Furthermore, the TECH industry also found some respite. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, and various medical and pharmaceutical companies registered gains.
Global Markets:
Wall Street, is seen bullish today at the US open unless the US-China deal hits a snag.

Germany 30: By 08:00GMT it was spotted at 10,820.5 in a range of 10,797.2 -10,892.5 analysts think any breakouts to the upside would lead to 10,900 targets.
Italy 40: With the Italian budget accepted by the EC and cooler heads prevail share price rallied seen at 18,832.50 by the time of print 08:000GMT, coming from 18,780.00 and attempting to head to18,910 however the announcement of the Italian Public deficit report at 09:00GMT could lead to a temporal sell-off. Below the support levels.
UK100: The stocks were seen up 0.50% at 6,805 in a range from 6,762.0 – 6,820.0 downside movement is seen before correction in the late afternoon in the EU trading day.
US30: Was one the main gainers by the time of print it was at 23,499.5 up 0.45% and range bound 23,284.0-23,624.0 once again the downward drag maybe elusive in shadowing the uptrends.

Commodities:

Oil: Following a volatile week for Oil prices the week ended with oil saved around $48 bbl. Very close to the Friday’s prognosis. Baker Hughes reported a drop the number of operation Rigs while the expected drop in crude oil inventories of nearly 4.5 million barrels, disappointed market participants by coming in with a build of 0.7million barrels. The intention of Saudi to cut production kept prices in check to trade between 48. 10 -48.95, by the time of print 08:00GMT it was seen at 48.86 although bullish we expect down trends to be in play, making the up climb a frustrating one or to be capped around 49.80 for the day.
Gold: has claimed the title for the default hedging option. As mentioned in our previous post until the US-China and Brexit are addressed to a satisfactory extent. Investors are cautiously banking on the precious metal. Seen up 0.58% at 1,293.20 is a range bound from 1,284.15-1,295.00

FX Market:
As the USD loses a bit of its bravado, EUR and a basket of other currencies

EUR/USD: was seen at 1.1437 08:00 GMT heading for 1.1440if crossed 1.1450 could be the next resistance to be tested.
GBP/USD: the GBP was bullishly caught at 1.2749 heading to 1.2755 if crossed 1.2765 becomes the next target followed by a 1.2782. Whether a breach to the 1.29 levels becomes feasible before the January 15th parliamentary Brexit vote remains to be seen.
USD/JPY: The Decline in the USD could be seen in this pair, however, the USD remains resilient trading sideways between 108.03 – 108.63

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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ftse-flat-ahead-of-trade-talks-dunelm-lifts-midcaps-1418636
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/07/us-china-trade-beijing-says-both-sides-expressed-will-to-make-deal.html
https://blog.xtrade.com/homepage/the-first-market-weekend-of-2019-laced-with-faltering-optimism/