A Tempestuous Trading Day Amid Growth Lags

Following Thursday’s tempestuous trading day market participants are not so eager to lunch out as uncertainties lurk. While some explore the possibility of gaining in Emerging Markets.
The Market resorted to general selloff trading sideways in bearish territory for most asset classes.
Meanwhile, the EU 27 member states, refused to give PM Theresa May face on the Irish border backstop which is generating a lot of stumbling blocks for the Brexit. Pushing the finalization date to 21st January 2019
The slowdown in Chinese Industrial Production 5.4% vs estimated 5.9% and disappointing retail sales coming in at 8.1% vs the predicted 8.8% as well as downbeat reports from the EU weighed on investor sentiment.
Despite the dismal mood Christmas shoppers are in a shopping mood and increasing individual share value.
Global Markets:
Global Markets are in reverse mode for most of the EU trading day.

  • US 30: Was unable to climb above the 24,700k settle at the previous day’s highs of 24,610. Then plummeting 1.04 % at the time of print 08:00GMT. It is expected to stay in a range from 24,610 down to 24,260. Volatile around 24,350 overall US30 lost about 300 pips overnight. As growth stagnation plagues.
  • Germany 30: is set in a range from highs of 10,918.5 not being able to cross the 11,000 levels. Analysts expect a downward trend to 10,730
  • Italy 40: Is also trading down at 1,880 by 08:00 GMT the asset is expected to selloff to 18,735 and beyond. Support and resistance level are as follows: 18,732.50 – 18,900.00.
  • UK100: Down 0.94% Trading from 6,827.75- 6,788.60 and oscillating between 6,823.50-6,812.00

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: With the ECB not raising rates till mid-2019 and ending the QE stimulus program, the EUR is losing footing. Some analysts think we could see the pair end the day around 1.1280 by the time of print down 0.38% still above 1.13.
  • GBP/USD: With the Brexit jittering the pound gives up recent gains from 1.2666 towards 1.2558.  by late EU afternoon when the US begins to release their economic reports.
  • USD/JPY: As some sort to seek shelter the USD fell to the JPY down 0.04% at 113.57 by print. There is a tendency to move lower to 113.20 although it ranges between highs and lows between 113.42 – 113.67

Commodities:

  • Oil: Deliberations at the IEA meeting welcomed South Africa formally as an associate. However fine tuning supply cuts to augment price stability to the upside is proving to be a delicate affair. Saudi Arabia announced it plans to stop exports to the US.  Oil rose to 52.95 before shedding 0.53% to 52.31 and aiming to drop further to 52.24 maybe to the upside of 51.
  • GOLD: Is currently stuck between 1,247.30 and 1,241.30 down 037% and lurking around 1,242.

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Related Links:
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks–us-futures-fall-amid-fears-of-slowing-global-growth-1721763
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-friday-1721719
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/china-reports-november-fixed-asset-investment-industrial-production.html
 
 
 
 

Cordial Interaction Promotes Market Pacification

The optimism sparked by cordial interaction between China and the US leads to significant headways or events leading to some sort of “market pacification” Assets classes have been seen trading in their comfort zones near resistant levels, with hopes of a breakthrough which might not be likely.
A loopy trading day ahead for traders laced with short termed opportunities for the day and perhaps the formation of new bullish trends ahead of the weekend.
Global Markets:
In tandem with yesterday’s projections, in which we witnessed all asset classes manifest themselves reaching suggested targets. Today most of the global assets are likely to oscillate in a loop. Warranting some Zig-Zag and Scalping strategies if known at best working with Bollinger bands and MACD could be helpful.

  • US 30: Climbed passed the 24,610 resistance line some analyst set for the day, to nearly 24,723 before readjusting to 24,590. Up 0.10 by the time of print 08:41GMT. It is expected to aim back to 24,750 albeit a frustrating climb.
  • Germany 30: Acted as predicted surging to 10,985.5. However, was unable to touch the 11,000 psychological level. Some Analysts think this could be reachable today however it is likely going to range between 10,887.5 – 10,985.5 and losing steam perhaps due to the EU Summit Meeting and ECB rate hike on tap. In which the interest may not be hiked rather forward guidance may be the deciding factor for the assets direction.
  • Italy 40: AS EU shares gain momentum on trade hopes. While Italy summiting a 2.04% budget deficit to the EU commission for consideration has cooled investors nerves. Up 0.16% at 18,980 aiming for 19,207.80 as new resistance levels.
  • UK100: Brexit is really taking the asset for a roller coaster ride. As it attempts to reach the 7k which might not feasible. Trading from 6,910.25 – 6,865.00.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: Except rallying past the 1.1320 targets to 1.1373 the pair seem to be caught in a tug of war between Wednesday range of 1.1307 – 1.1400.
  • GBP/USD: The Pound managed to tack on some more gains. PM Theresa May managed to challenge the no-confident vote. Her boldness resounds in the currency pair trading up 0.21% at 1.2656 and destined to move from lows of 1.2610 to highs of 1.2686
  • USD/JPY: Once again Wednesday’s trending path dominates.  With the pair hoovering around113.45 in a path between 113.20 – 113.50.

Commodities:

  • Oil: Ahead of today’s IEA Oil report. Oil prices are jumpy in the loop from lows of 50.91 to highs of 51.56 depending on the results abrupt swings could be seen.
  • GOLD: is set to travel between these boundaries. 1,248.70 – 1,251.70 perhaps to the downside, as some market participants move to riskier assets like the USD

In the backdrop, while some traders and investors are clouded with a slue and pace of events, others are fishing for short-term profitable assets like shares of retailers Apple, Amazon, eBay, and co are all likely to rally as shoppers make a dash for Christmas gifts for the upcoming holidays.
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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-shares-extend-rally-as-italy-hopes-offset-brexit-clouds-1405077
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-thursday-1720311

Boosted Market Sentiments On US-China Truce Developments

The reinforced news of more ease in the US-China relationship boosted market sentiment. Reports of President Trump proposing to step into the case against Ms. Victoria Meng CFO of Hawuei if it would help soothe the trade and tariffs negotiations. Made investors a bit more confident in taking their bullish positions.
In the UK, Brexit saga plagues. PM May is said to face a “No-Confidence Vote” Market participants are concerned this may disrupt future trends. However today both the UK100 and GBP are hawkish.
Global Markets:
All markets are mostly bullish as progress between the US-China relations advances in a positive light

  • US 30: The asset fell to 24,336 when rumors of the Trump administration attempt to pass bills which could punish companies in the tech industry that do not comply. However, this morning its supported with uptrends expected at the time of print 9:00 GMT it was at 24,466.5 with resistance set at 24,610 upon reaching it the next level should reach 24,680 and beyond by mid-day.
  • Germany 30: Marches on from 10,826 at time of print set for 10,900 then aiming for 11,000 as the next resistance level.
  • Italy 40: As Italy and the EU begin to see eye to eye resolution of the budget issue could be at hand. The asset was seen trading up between 18,622.50 and 18,777.50 upsides to 18,800 or even to 19,000 may be obtained sooner than thought.
  • UK100: The no-confident vote against PM. Theresa May drives sentiment somewhat with the UK100 shooting to the stars. From 6,817.0 heading to 6,880, once reach Analyst believe it may attempt to make a run for the 7k levels.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: The pair remains supported at the time of print 09:00GMT it was at 1.1320 come from lows of 1.1307 and aiming for 1.1400.
  • GBP/USD: Is very bullish up 0.34% at 1.2532 trending to and fro 1.2640.
  • USD/JPY: The USD got it mojo back against the Yen, Trading between113.33-113.52

Commodities:

  • Oil: Despite US increased output Tuesday’s API revealed a decline of nearly 10.5million barrels, this and supply disruption by Libyan militias send Oil price rallying at the time of print it WTI was at 52.09 coming from 51.92 and targeting 52.40 if it crosses it we should be looking at 53 for the next resistance.
  • GOLD: Cautious Traders are still keeping a close eye on developments and thus keeping the precious metal nearby for hedging. Trading on familiar ground seen in recent times between 1,247.20 – 1,251.50.

 
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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-wednesday-1404232
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/huawei-cfo-arrest-trump-could-intervene-if-it-helps-us-china-deal.html

Market Participants Relieved & Cautiously Bullish

Market participants relieved & cautiously bullish. Following some progress in the US-China negotiations via phone late Monday. Asian shares shined with the optimism seen reflected on EU Markets while the US 30 gains some footing for uptrends.
Ahead of the day’s economic events namely; (UK Claimant Count Change, EU German ZEW Economic, and the US economic data releases) are likely to render support to the GBP, EUR and later the USD. If estimates beat market expectations as predicted.
Meanwhile, PM May abandoned the intended Parliamentary vote on Brexit yesterday claiming it could have caused more division.
Global Markets:
Global Stocks are mostly bullish today, However, ranging in narrow ranges between gains and losses in a classical Tuesday Market Tango. Watch out for trend reversals in mid-US session

  • US 30: Is set to open bullishly after recent routs. Trading sideways between 24,351.0 – 24,490.0 eyes remain on Trumps administration for concrete resolute with EU partners and China on tariffs. Further upside to 24,600 is possible.
  • Germany 30: Woke up strong but fizzles ahead of the day’s economic events. By the time of print 08:00 GMT it was at 10,707.04 with upside trends to 10,740 could be seen before midday. Once the 10,740 thresholds are crossed uptrends to 10,800 becomes the next resistance.
  • Italy 40: Although budgetary issues remain unresolved the asset climbs from lows of 18,428.5 heading for 18,570 it first resistance followed by 18,615.40 as next levels to reach.
  • UK100: Turned hawkish trying to fly to 6,778 from its close yesterday at 6,721.54. In case the 6,778 levels are passed an attempt to touch 6,820.14 is the next level.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: The EUR rose against the USD up 0.24% trading from 1.1351 heading 1.1390 and may test the 1.14 level
  • GBP/USD: Another averted disaster in the Brexit saga brought the GBP from 20-month lows around 1.2563 to current levels 1.2626 and aiming for 1.2640. As PM May heads to the Brussels to gain a better standing in the Brexit negotiations.
  • USD/JPY: The USD is still dovish to the JPY sliding 0.25% from 113.36 to 113.06 further downside to 112.90 is very possible.

Commodities:

  • Oil: A Surprise cut of 1.2 million barrels boosted prices Friday and supported WTI oil on Monday. However, we see prices ranging in an out of gains between 50.72 – 51.31 ahead of today API Oil stockpiles report. Market participants may attempt to profit-take, sending prices to their possible highest today. 51.80 or beyond before receding
  • GOLD: Retains its reputation attracting cautious investors. Bullish up 0.37% ranging from 1,248.95 – 1,254.55

Apple Inc was hammered after losing the legal case against Qualcomm. Share plummeted. As the ruling prohibited Apple from selling models a 6 up to X. Apple’s legal team quickly appealed, pushing stock prices up. aiming for 171.80 when the US market opens. 
Most of the FAANG stocks are also seen bullish. As the Health and Tech sectors regain footing.
In other news unrest in France could become the next focal point with budgetary constraints on the EU.
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Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-tuesday-1403378
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/brexit-what-happens-next.html
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/apple-vs-qualcomm-how-can-one-us-company-block-another-in-china.html

The Market Is On Frail Knees Praying For Mercy!

The Market’s week starts with frail knees. Hit hard from Friday’s roil. US-China’s 90-day truce became turbulent with the arrest of Huawei CFO Ms. Meng. Market participants associate her detention as part of the tactics in the ongoing trade tiffs.
Traders sentiments have been bearish and cautious in anticipation of any unfavorable news from the US or China and praying for mercy in the rout.
Elsewhere eyes are turned to the UK ahead of the Brexit Parliamentary vote or hearing coupled with some high steaks impact. i.e. result in another referendum, general election and even change of government amid what could be a painful defeat for PM May. The UK 100 and GBP are bowing to pressure.
Meanwhile, Australia’s watchdog asks for more clamp down on Facebook & Google hammering their share prices Alibaba on the other hands steps up to take more control of its films department Alibaba Picture group. Stock prices were little change, however, long-term, uptrends are forecasted to resume soon.
Global Markets:
Friday US market closed low sentiments pushed Asian Markets to down, while EU markets follow suit.

  • US 30: Was seen down 0.32% at 24,353.5 with a potential of falling to 24,162.5
  • Germany 30: drops 0.66% by the time of print 08:48 GMT trading from 10,740 heading to 10,673.26.
  • Italy 40: Tried to catch some up winds in the early EU open unsuccessfully. Sliding 0.49% from 18,670.00 to 18,522.50.
  • UK100: Brexit weighs heavily around its neck. The upside movement may only come following Tuesday’s conclusions.  For now, the asset is likely to trade sideways between 6,782.62 – 6,742.50 at the time of print it was down 0.50%

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: With the USD Slipping on risk aversion ahead of the ECB meeting the EUR rallies 0.28% to 1.1411 with 1.1444 as it upcoming resistance level very feasible.
  • GBP/USD: In the face of a possible “Hard Brexit” or complete abandonment of it, investors are fleeing from the pair like it was some contaminated disease. From 1.2758 – 1.2693 and lower.
  • USD/JPY: The USD was seeing losing footing against the Yen earlier however regained some footing. Trading in and out of gains between 112.24 – 112.75.

Commodities:

  • Oil: remains politically charged with finalizations of OPEC & OPEC’s agreement to cut 1.2 million barrels of daily oil productions looming. The volatility will see oil prices ranging between 51.20 – 52.82 a great opportunity for scalping.
  • GOLD: Remains the default safe haven attracting cautious inventors or those who chose to hedge their positions. Trading from 1,251.50 – 1,256.30

For further details, please visit Xtrade.com. You may also leave your comments below.
Related Links:
https://uk.investing.com/news/politics-news/eus-top-court-says-uk-can-unilaterally-stop-brexit-1402490
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-monday-1716335

Friday Profit-Taking & Market Respite After Massive Selloff

Friday profit-taking and market respite forces market participants to reconsider their positions after the massive selloff.
The viral arrest on Ms. Sabrina Meng, CFO, of Huawei was seen by seasoned investors as a distraction or addition to volatility. Since here detention was on the 1st of December and not yesterday.
The USD remains broadly supported as the GBP and EUR attempt to climb up ahead of Today’s US Non- Farm Payrolls (NFP) and EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports. Analysts think their upside movement is limited to current resistance levels i.e. 1.1385 for the EUR/USD & 1.2796 for the GBP/USD pair.
Furthermore, market participants are paying close attention for further development in the OPEC & OPEC + agreement to curb production and Oil prices. Russia contribution beckoned.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report on Thursday missed expectations, 179k vs the forecasted 196k. The apparent weakness in the USD was compensated for by a good ISM number and prospects of a rate hike remain on tap.
Crude oil inventories reported revealed a drop of almost
7.4million barrels for the week, however, with Gasoline inventories swelling 1.699 million barrels’ prices remained under pressure.
Global Markets:
Global stocks recover from the dramatic selloff triggered Thursday. Asia closed relatively bullish. EU stocks seek to carry on hawkish wings at least until other news halts up trends

  • US 30: Although with a dovish outlook the asset oscillates between 24,706.0 – 24,978.5 after slipping nearly 800 pips
  • UK100: Is poised on making up for recent selloff yet below the 7k psychological levels. Up 1.47% at the time of print 09:50GMT. Trading between 6,739.25 – 6,815.56
  • Italy40: is up 0.98% rallying from 18,762.49-18,867.60 or beyond
  • Germany 30: Following up from Thursday the asset did fall to 10,810.98 in line with our projections it is recovery from an almost 4% drop. Up 0.99% at 10,917.73 heading for 10,925.80 & beyond.

FX Markets:

  • EUR/USD: trades in a range from 1.1360 – 1.1383 attempting to stage a comeback
  • GBP/USD: remains volatile swing between 1.2734 – 1.2795 with a desire to cross the 1.28 resistance line.
  • USD/JPY: Upon reaching 112.83 the USD begins to gain traction up 0.14% vs the Yen at 112.84 aiming for 112.93 or 113.

Commodities:

  • Oil: Remains politically charged trading sideways between 50.61 – 51.76 in anticipation of a propeller for now gravity is heavy ahead of the Baker Hughes Rig Count.
  • GOLD: As uncertainties prevail some investors are finding the precious metal attractive. Gold was seen at 1,245.65 targeting 1,246.60 as it resistance.

The Five companies reporting their earnings today may not have any significant impact on the market.
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Related Links:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/opec-meeting-saudi-arabia-and-russia-look-to-impose-production-cuts.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/mays-brexit-vote-could-plunge-the-uk-into-fresh-political-chaos.html
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/opec-summit-preview-supply-cuts-consensus-is-anything-but-guaranteed-200205048