Page 158 – XTrade

The Brexit, Fed Rate, & Oil Inventories Combo

The Day is set to be a very active one with a number of high profile events on the financial calendar, namely the Brexit summit in Brussels, The Fed Interest rate minutes, releases of earnings reports from some 54 entities or companies, Crude Oil Inventories report by the EIA and a deluge of Microeconomic factors plaguing The GBP, EUR and emerging markets amid the Sino-US trade tensions.

Brexit the divorce of the UK from the EU makes more headlines with the Brussels summit set for 17^th-18^th October. Investors are poised to strategies and profit from the outcome. Could this have the magnitude, the Brexit referendum had in June 2016 shedding nearly $2.5 trillion in global markets, remains to be seen. By the time of print 1:00 GMT, UK100 was bullish ranging from 7,055.41 – 7,088.00 while the GBP plummeted vs. EUR and USD.

Global Stocks: Global shares were in a limbo reacting to the aforementioned events.

US 30: By mid-day GMT the shares were dovish down 0.52% trading in reverse between 25,626.0 – 25,845.0 although analyst predicts wall street is likely to open lower optimistic market participants are counting on Earning report to elevate the stocks. Which may be lingering due to the fed minutes o tap. Just like Netflix boosted stocks yesterday markets remain hopeful.
Germany30: Once again began the day optimistic opening higher at 11,822.71 however fizzed at a resistance point of 11,847.16 to head down 0.24% current support levels are at 11,688.36 with more downside in view before any corrections are seen.
Italy 40: has been oscillating between 19,857.50 – 19,445.00 nose diving 0.89% towards its support levels.
UK100: Started the day with an upbeat mood ranging from 7,052.26 – 7,088.00. however, with the financial calendar laced with CPI and PPI reports not to mention the Bank of England’s FPC minutes down ward pull will not be surprising.
DXY: With the Fed minutes ahead the DXY consolidated up 0.31% at 95.34 and ranging from 95.06 – 95.46.

Currencies:

EUR/USD: With the USD climbing the EUR took a back seat. Pair was trading down 0.31% between 1.1580 – 1.1521 amid the EU’s release of its economic forecast and CPI reports which could upset any uptrends for the EUR.
GBP/USD: Brexit deliberations begin with a dinner tonight some cautious traders are on the sidelines waiting of better clarity while others short the GBP in fear of another 24th June 2016 plunge after the Brexit vote which saw global stocks down to 31-year lows. The pair has been dovish all day down 0.37% in a range from highs of 1.3193 in between lows of 1.3100.
USD/JPY: Since in connection to Tuesday’s posts the USD continues to rally vs. the JPY in a risk-on mood. Perhaps in anticipation that the FED statements after the Interest rate decision may lead to further bullish trends even if the stand pat.
USD/TRY gained some confidence after Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale were called upon to advise on the sale of Turkish 5-year bonds and received tripe fold on the $ 2 billion denominated bonds. The USD took a break as the TRY rallied. The pair was seen between 0.96% down 5.6204 – 5.7172

Commodities:

Oil: As Market Participants and oil traders wait for the crude oil inventories numbers to come in. WTI prices fell 1.60% to a range between 70.61 – 72.44. Iraq OPEC’s second largest Oil producer has it marketing team known as SOMO inquiring to know the final destination of its exported oil to curb cargo resales amid uncertainties as the US racks up it shale production. Prices may be forced further down before any correction come to play.
Nickel: Seems to be adopting the habit of opening high and receding as the day progresses. Opening at 12,527.50 and to trend between 12,467.50 – 12,602.50 the expectation is a downward spiral by the end of the day with 25-35 pips down from it open.
XAU/USD: Although Gold was bearish, it is presumed to rise during the day as some “prudent” investors buy the precious metal to hedge should the USD begin a sudden descent. The XAU/USD pair were up 0.29% ranging from 1,220.68 -1,229.56.
Silver: Sliver was unable to tag along gold remaining dovish and ranging from 14.615 – 14.750.

For further details please visit com. You may also leave your comments below.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opecs-no-2-producer-wants-to-know-how-buyers-use-its-oil-1647683

Brexit Tailgating Fizzy’s GBP

The GBP is fizzy, as Brussels prepares for a two-day summit to discuss Britain’s readiness for the Brexit. Investors and Traders are also ready to capitalize on this asset.

The UK’s divorce from the European Union and its trades agreements has become known as the Brexit. The Separation was set into motion following the June 23rd, 2016 referendum with a deadline for a final withdrawal by 29th March 2019.

During this period the UK has attempted to enter into numerous alternative trade agreements with individual nations as well as with the EU as a whole. When negotiations seem favorable the GBP rose and when not the GBP plummeted.

The apparent discussion is whether the UK is to exit the EU on a Soft note (SOFT BREXIT) or Hard Note (HARD BREXIT) or a combination of both.

The Soft Brexit is favored by those who voted “IN” at the referendum, which implies the UK leaves, however, remains closely aligned to the EU. Thereby keeping any disruption to businesses and trade at a minimal in which the UK will be bound by EU regulations yet unable to legislate.

Hard Brexit is a favored by all those who voted for the UK to “LEAVE” the EU cutting all restrictive ties to form new and better ones. In reality, it seems the Exit may be a mixture of both forms. The negotiations and lack of clarity have preyed on Investors sentiments. At the moment any news that comes out with a positive outlook is hailed to be a propelling factor in moving the trends upwards, while at times news of stagnation sends ripples down the charts.

Market Participants are poised on capitalizing on the outcome from the two-day summit from the 17th-18th October 2018 as should detail the course of events leading up to the actual exit. and perhaps insights to the GBP reaction. Nearly two and half years ago panic from the Brexit as per analysts wiped away $ 2 Trillion from global markets and caused mayhem, among the negative jabs were:

1.Wall Street suffering its biggest fall in 10 months at the time.
2. The Bank of England was forced to pledge £250bn liquidity in an emergency counter-reaction to avert a recession.
3. European Markets were left hopelessly down trotting to which Moody’s financial services gave a negative outlook for the GBP.

By the time of print GBP/USD was seen down 0.31% in a range from 1.3193 – 1.3126 further downsides maybe in view.

Meanwhile, UK100 is bullish in a range 7,055.41 – 7,088.00. Should the EU give up on Britain, for failing to bring fresh ideas to the table investors may scramble to take cover elsewhere and the UK may be forced to pay about $36billion upon exiting the EU.

Volatility and uncertainties plague sentiments yet for those attentive the rewards for daring may be highly warranted.

The USD Amid Brexit Finalization & Earnings Reports

The USD amid Brexit finialzation summit, rose against a basket of currencies although in classical Tuesday Tango reversals and corrections may well be part of today’s action. Ahead of Wednesday’s fed rate decision to which the market is under impression that the FOMC may stand pat. However, the reasoning behind the decision will be closely monitored for insights into the future yield curve amid concerns over the Chinese and US Trade frictions.

Global Stocks:

Stocks were mixed in Asia and the same sentiment resonates across EU shares although up from nearly two-year lows. US stocks look hopeful with about 36 companies releasing Q3 earnings reports. Including Netflix Inc. (NFLX), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Morgan Stanley. (MS) Domino’s Pizza Inc.(DPZ), BlackRock Inc.(BLK) and several others.

Wall Street failed to post substantial gains Monday as The Tech industry led by Apple stroke investors sentiments negatively. However today the expectation is for a rally.

US 30: Was seen bullish at the time of print 08:11 GMT up 0.33% at 25,285.0 to trade between 25,167.0 – 25,307.0.

Germany30: Opened its trading day with an upward gap 11,638.09 vs it close of 11,614.16 by the time of print it was 0.40% up at 11,660.50 trading between 11,606.36 – 11,671.87.

Italy 40: Was seen struggling to rise, analyst, today could be a hawkish day for the asset, seem ranging from 19,187.50 – 19,522.50.

UK100: Was still struggling 0.29% down at 7,009.00 and swings from 7,034.25 – 7,007.75. Brexit deliberations weighs

DXY: Was bearish at 94.99 down 0.07% between 94.97 – 95.20. Conspicuously parading the USD’s weakness.

Currencies:

EUR/USD: Was seen wobbly in the early hours as the USD gained momentum the EUR dropped the expectation of the median range is between 1.1566 – 1.1599.

GBP/USD: Has been hawkish up 0.26% at 1.3187 ahead of the Wednesday Brexit deliberations which is said to be the latest in which a Brexit deal could be finalized. The pair swing between 1.3141 – 1.3197

USD/JPY: The USD rose against the JPY 0.31% up trend between 111.73 – 112.17.

Commodities:

Oil: Springing off from Monday’s post, WTI Crude prices seem to be boxed in a range between 71.03 – 72.04 down 0.70% at 71.28 at the time of print, and ahead of today’s API Crude Oil stockpiles. Some Analyst believe the Khashoggi case, could elevate tensions between the US& Saudi Arabia and as a consequence rise oil prices.

Nickel: the losses continue after opening slightly higher at 12,600 the current situation is dismal for Nickel today down 1.03% from 12,632.50 – 12,397.50

XAU/USD: Some investors are not only taking advance of the uncertainties but also banking on upcoming social events like the Diwali celebrations. The pair was spotted 0.21% up ranging from1,225.09 – 1,230.26.

Silver: Tags along XAU in uptrends ranging from 14.645 – 14.775

Copper: contracts as Sino-US tiffs weighs on the Chinese economy.

For further details please visit com. You may also leave your comments below.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/saudi-arabia-could-spike-oil-prices-over-journalist-case–but-it-would-backfire.html

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/stress-testing/2018/stress-testing-the-uk-banking-system-key-elements-of-the-2018-stress-test.pdf?la=en&hash=6A00F3E28248411FF638A2E55B6060B2FBB882A1

Q3 Earnings, Week Begins With Some Reflections

The Week begins with some reflection over what drove markets last week and perhaps the facts which could impact trends this week. Just when Analysts had stuck their heads out to hail the end of the rout and proclaim markets corrections the reality on grounds suggests otherwise.

Global Stocks

It seems the Sino-US trade tiffs continues to weigh on the Asian markets. Perhaps adding to the slowdown in the Chinese economy as investors wade through a pool of uncertainties. With Asian markets in a bearish mode, the wave of negative sentiments is thus split on to the EU markets, exhibiting mixed undertones.

Wall Street seems optimistic as we enter into the second week of Q3 earnings reports. On the docket Bank of America (BAC), Oil-Dri Corporation of America (ODC), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics In. (BCLI), Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) among some 12 other S&P 500 companies, it is expected that the reports like Friday’s will beat market expectations.

US 30: At the time of print 11:54 GMT the asset was trending dovish. Down 0.34% to range between 25,111.0 – 25,338.0 Netflix and Goldman Sachs the initial hope of investors optimism is currently down in premarket.

Germany30: Had begun a buoyant ascend up 0.32% from 11,452.25 – 11,587.24.

Italy 40: Was infected by the up winds trading 19,107.50 – 19,265.00. rallying 0.18%

UK100: Whether directly related or not is opened to debate. However, it could be noted that the Brexit saga, is waning on the UK economy. Most of the time in unsuspected adverse ways. By the time of print UK 100 was bearish, caught between 6,960.76 – 7,019.25 and down 0.11%

DXY: The Most evident is the DXY showing clear signs that the USD has taken a breather shedding 0.24 % at 94.99 and set to trend between 94.98 – 95.37

Currencies:

The USD let out some steam giving way for other currencies to take a sigh.

EUR/USD: swings between gains and losses between 1.1541 – 1.1600 by the time of print up 0.30% at 1.1594 ahead of the US retail sales report.

GBP/USD: the pair was staggering earlier Monday morning attempting to take advantage of the weakness in the USD but at the same time cringing on Brexit deadlock. The pair was seen trading between 1.3085 – 1.3258 up 0.14% at 1.3173.

USD/JPY: The USD was seen losing more grounds to the safe heaven JPY as equities parked. The pair traded low, down 0.30% from 112.50 -111.62

Commodities:

Oil: The Politics surrounding Oil is not new and thus behooves Oil trades to be as dynamic and flexible to ride the volatility surrounding this Black Gold by the time of print swung between 71.28 – 72.69 up 0.77%. Concerns of further demand and supply are a murky as could be. Yet Saudi, amid tensions over the missing journalist, reaffirmed to honor its commitment to meet Indian oil demands.

Nickel: Lost gains from Friday to range between 12,807.50 – 12,597.50 down 0.26% at 12,657.50.

XAU/USD: Gold Climbed as some investors turned their focus from the USD to hedge.

Silver: Was also carried along up 0.82% between 14.620-14.805.

Copper: Surges 0.37% at 2.811 range bound between 2.793 – 2.820

For further details please visit com. You may also leave your comments below.

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-monday-1343263

https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/?guccounter=1

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/saudi-king-orders-investigation-into-khashoggi-case-reuters-reports.html

Changing Tides, Market Rebounds From Rout USD Lurks

After such a perturbed rout in global markets, the tides are changing again as the USD lurks, in what seems to be a green day across all boards albeit not out of the woods yet, with some major Banks releasing their Q3 Earning reports, Investors are optimistic today with a deck of options to choose from, in Friday’s usual profit-taking. With China reporting a surplus of nearly $35 billion with the US despite the trade woes.

Global Stocks: As Asian stocks recovered modestly. The upbeat sentiment spilled over to the EU shares which were helped by the auto and tech stocks. while the US looks up to wall street for support.

US 30: following a plunge of nearly 400 points or pips, the asset is projected to open higher perhaps recouping loses with a possible rally of about 400 pips by the time of print 08:17 GMT, it stood at up 1.00% at 25,436. with current highs set at 25,545.0 and lows recorded at 25,195.0. In case JPMorgan Chase & Co, (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Citigroup Inc.(C), First Republic Bank (FRC) and PNC Financial Services Group Inc.(PNC) reports come out positive Wall street will finish the week in green.

Germany30; Opened at 11,688.15 higher than its previous close of 11,539 and remains bullish up 0.61% in a range between 11,591.37 – 11,692.53.

Italy 40: Got some hawkish wings surging 0.45% trading from 19,388.50 – 19,569.50. Although Italian political and budgetary uncertainties hover over positive moves.

UK100: Also posted gains surging 0.42% at 7,036.5 and trending between 7,024.27 – 7,055.64. As UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond claims to be more optimistic for Brexit report from Bali.

DXY: In conjunction to Thursday’s post the US dollar index remains steady jumping in and out of gains yet above the 95 thresholds most of the time and ranging between 94.95 – 95.14

Currencies: By late Thursday most of the basket of major currencies were seen bullish to the USD. As investors shorted the USD.

EUR/USD: was one of the major beneficiaries climbing beyond the 1.16 threshold as reports on US Consumer Price Index disappointed expectations. However, upside movement may now be restricted due as the USD stays resilient at the time of print the pair was looking shedding gains in a range between 1.1432 – 1.1610

GBP/USD: As Windsor Castle readies for a second Royal Wedding, The appetite for GBP liquidity rose modestly, however with the USD steady and resilient Upside movement beyond current resistance levels of 1.3258 may be a bit too much to ask. The likely trajectory for the pair is set to range between1.3207 – 1.3258.

USD/JPY: As trade concerns are parked the USD rose stages a small rally against the JPY, up 0.12% oscillating between 112.01 – 112.50.

Commodities:

XAU/USD: XAU managed to climb up to 1,224.30 tracking Thursday’s post. Analyst had project new resistance levels at 1.238 however, Xtrade’s Academy team suggest this may be a long shot with the dollar still gaining attention. The pair were spotted between 1,215.93 – 1,224.45.

Oil: The EIA cut its forecast for global demand perhaps a move to curb oversupply woes in future months. And Reported a decline of nearly 6 million barrels. WTI prices plummeted further to close at 70.97 following the release of the report. Ahead of the Baker Hughes Rig Count report, Crude oil prices were caught between 70.95- 72.00 up 0.68%.

Nickel: Recovered nicely from Thursday’s dovish mood up 0.96% with further upside possible, ranging from 12,642.50 – 12,875.00.

Silver: Rose to trade between 14.540 – 14.655 up 0.23%

Copper: Rallied 0.64% to trade from 2,775 -2,826

For further details please visit com. You may also leave your comments below.

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-friday-1641792

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/as-brexit-talks-progress-uk-pm-may-struggles-to-find-support-at-home-1641848

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

“Trumpnomics” and Raising US Bonds kicks Global Stocks down!

Although it is known, that surges in US Yields puts pressure on stocks, whereby a fair amount of investors tend to leave the shares and look for ways to buy into the raising Bonds Market, for long-term profits, market participants were shaken Thursday to witness a global rout not seen in nearly 2 years. Some prudent traders took cover with the safe haven assets like the JPY, XAU, and CHF, causing a major selloff. Which is likely to continue plaguing the market.

Naturally, The US-China tensions peddle fear sentiments perhaps in line with the IMF’s caveat earlier this week, which warned that

“sudden deterioration in risk sentiment, triggering a broad-based correction in global capital markets and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions.”

Global Stocks: Dwindled as concerns for global economic growth amid increases in Interest rates weighed on sentiments. Asian Shares were down an average of 3.2% across the boards.

US 30: Fell nearly 357 pips sliding from 25,533.0 – 25,176.0. By the time of print 09:31 GMT, it was seen down 1.03% at 25,258. The Tech stocks which usually boosts US stocks were all in a bearish mood, for example, Facebook Inc. was down to 148.88, Amazon down to 1,755.25 in premarket.

Germany30Dropped 1.45% to trade between 11,532.32 – 11,637.63. almost 150 pips slide by the time of print. Further downside is in view before any corrections.

Italy 40caved nearly 300 pips in a range from 19,490.00 – 19,325.00 a drop of 1.54% as it stood capriciously around 19,325.00.

UK100Was seen struggling to hold on between 7,067.25 – 7,067.25 further down sliding may be seen.

DXYDespite the USD ‘s apparent strength, the US Dollar Index was seen losing a bit of its luster down 0.36% yet remains in above 95. Ranging between 15 – 95.43.

Currencies: In conjunctions to Wednesday’s post, conditions seem to reflect a no change. US President’s Trump’s verbal punches to the FED, referring to the autonomous body (FOMC) and its Chair Jarome Powell as “crazy” was frowned upon even by IMF Chair Christine Lagarde and a throng of Central Bankers.

EUR/USD: The pair was resilient, trailblazing from 1.1432 – 1.1576 up 0.43%
GBP/USD: was seen struggling in the early trading hours due to disappointing House Price Balance Report from the (RICS) however, upside trends maybe visible the pair was seen trading between 1.3182-1.3243.
USD/JPY: Once again the USD lost ground the safe haven JPY receding from Wednesdays rally 113.22, down 0.9% in a range of 111.98 – 112.38 where USD seemed vulnerable.

Commodities:

XAU/USD: Today XAU was showing off vs the USD, as traders’ bank on the precious metal. By the time of print the pair was 0.73% up ranging between 1,191.34 – 1,205.71

Oil: Unfortunately fell further down, pressed by a cut in global economic growth projections and increased stockpiles according to the API report on Wednesday revealing stockpiles stood at 9.7 million bbl a surge of approximately 2.7million barrels. Trading down 1.68% between 72.76 -71.64

Nickel: Falls further from yesterday’s levels trading downwards from 12,672.50 – 12,387.50

Silver: followed gold in up streams up 0.59% oscillating from 14,275-14,470
Copper: could not hold it center bolt, down 1.48% in reverse mood from 2.764-2.713 as China’s factory orders fall so does demand in copper. Since China is one of the major importers of copper.

Cryptocurrencies: Remain in bearish mood.

For further details please visit com. You may also leave your comments below.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/top-officials-praise-the-fed-and-its-independence-after-new-attacks-from-president-trump.html

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opecs-barkindo-factors-beyond-producers-control-are-impacting-oil-market-1640058