Page 166 – XTrade

Asian shares slide lower as weak China data adds to Fed rate worries

Morning Wednesday news: China stocks slide as nation`s manufacturing PMI hits 20-month low, Dollar holds steady and Gold hovers at two-week low. Powell’s comments on Tuesday fueled speculation that the FED Open Market Committee will push through rate rises this year

In details, the event is an actual reaction to yesterday`s comments made by Jay Powell which has fueled speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee will push through four rate rises this year, a prospect that sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped more than 1%, its biggest daily percentage drop since February 9, 2018 when world financial markets were battered by concerns U.S. inflation is picking up.

China’s blue-chip CSI300 skidded 0.6% while Shanghai’s SSE (LON:SSE) Composite fell 0.8 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined more than 1%.

Growth in China’s services industry also slowed, suggesting the key sector was starting to display signs of fatigue.

In Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, industrial output in January took its biggest tumble since a devastating earthquake in March 2011, highlighting a weakening in demand and a build up of inventory. Japan’s Nikkei stumbled 1 percent on a slightly firmer yen.

Growth in India’s factory activity slowed too in February.

In commodities, oil prices extended declines on weak output data from China and Japan and as an industry data showed an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Brent crude futures fell 40 cents to $66.23 a barrel, while U.S. crude was last down 33 cents at $62.68.
Spot gold eased to $1,317.61 an ounce, not far from Tuesday’s $1,313.26 which was the lowest in three weeks.

Spot gold eased to $1,317.61 an ounce, not far from Tuesday’s $1,313.26 which was the lowest in three weeks.

In currencies, the dollar held on to gains after rallying against most major currencies on Tuesday. It hovered near a recent 1-1/2 month top against the Australian dollar and held near a three-week high on the euro at $1.2221.

Sources:

https://www.ft.com/content/a67bd056-1c24-11e8-956a-43db76e69936

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/asian-shares-slide-as-weak-china-japan-manufacturing-data-add-to-fed-worries-idUSKCN1GC03R

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/asia-markets-powell-testimony-china-pmis-and-earnings-in-focus.html

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ap-asian-shares-fall-after-us-fed-chief-says-hes-optimistic-2018-2

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/asian-shares-follow-wall-street-lower-on-rate-hike-worries-20180228-00162

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/market-updates/asian-shares-lurch-lower-as-fed-revives-fears-of-faster-rate-hikes/article38140735/?cmpid=rss

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-slide-as-weak-china-japan-manufacturing-data-add-to-fed-worries-1315766

As US data disappoints markets EUR/USD grips to 1.2300 after Powell`s comments

It’s his first speech, the market is already in a higher volatility phase. The Nasdaq (IXIC) is just 1.12 percent below its record high hit a month ago, while the S&P and the Dow are trading 3.2% and 3.4% below their life highs, respectively.

Fed policymakers anticipate three rate increases this year, and Powell gave no indication in prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee that the pace needs to quicken even as the “tailwinds” of government stimulus and a stronger world economy propel the U.S. recovery.

As for EUR/USD it is fluctuating near 1.2300

Spot has given away initial gains on Tuesday in response to a renewed pick up in the buying interest around the buck following Powell’s first congressional testimony.

Fed’s Powell stressed the economic outlook remains strong while he sees the tightening cycle continuing at a gradual pace over the 2018-2020 period.

On the positioning front, US Durable Goods Orders contracted 3.7% MoM in January and the trade deficit widened to $74.4 billion during the same period

Powell noted that wages should increase at a faster pace while he did not appear concerned over financial market volatility. He also suggested that the gradual reduction of the accommodative monetary conditions should prop up the solid labour market and lift prices towards the inflation target.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.09% at 1.2306 facing the immediate support at 1.2260 (low Feb.22) followed by 1.2206 (low Feb.9) and finally 1.2165 (low Jan.18). On the other hand, a break above 1.2361 (21-day sma) would target 1.2366 (10-day sma) en route to 1.2537 (high Jan.25).

Sources:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-dip-ahead-of-powells-testimony-1313914

https://www.ft.com/content/9d8b5ec6-1bb6-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-tuesday-1313442

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Powell-says-outlook-strong-signaling-gradual-12711881.php

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-holds-steady-before-fed-boss-powell-talks-to-congress-2018-02-27

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-jerome-powell-february-2018-testimony

Global stocks advance ahead of FED Chairman Jerome Powell’s awaited first congressional testimony later in the day

European bourses are higher, tracking an improving mood on Wall Street overnight ahead of the inaugural testimony by Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell to Congress.

The event is likely to help define sentiment, playing into investors’ expectations for the pace of rate tightening in the US, where the return of inflation looks to give the central bank more room to act. It has provided one of the main market themes of 2018, as investors calibrate the potential consequences and the relative outlook for speed of monetary policy tightening around the world.

Every Fed chair goes before Congress twice a year to report on the state of the economy. Investors will be paying even closer attention this time for clues on how quickly the Fed might raise interest rates if inflation picks up.

Investors say that expectations that Powell will be sensitive to financial markets appear to be running high. But he hasn’t said he will sacrifice policy normalization for the sake of financial markets. Certainly it seems that there is room for disappointment in markets. In the meantime, the dollar is slipping back from the highs for the month it touched three sessions ago. It is down 0.1 per cent on the session at 89.735.

Positive sentiment has spread from Wall Street, via much of Asia to Europe, although Chinese stocks ended a winning streak of about six sessions.

European shares are expected to gain, with spread-betters looking to a higher opening of about 0.4 to 0.5% in Britain’s FTSE, France’s Cac and Germany’s Dax.

Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.1% to three-week highs while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan also hit a three-week high before giving up gains on profit-taking in Chinese shares.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 1.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9%

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 advanced 1.18 percent on Monday helped by a fall in U.S. bond yields.

—–

Sources:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-near-threeweek-high-ahead-of-powells-testimony-1313088

https://www.ft.com/markets

https://www.ft.com/content/8522e452-1b5d-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/27/news/economy/federal-reserve-congress-powell/index.html

https://www.thestreet.com/video/14500365/5-things-to-know-about-federal-reserve-chairman-jerome-powell.html

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-27/wall-street-surges-ahead-jerome-powell-fed-testimony-asx/9487702

This week ahead: top news to watch this week

Fellow traders, let us have a look at upcoming week in terms of important economic news.

Below you can find short table of major economic news during this week:

Monday: President’s Day in USA, Wall Street will remain closed. In the UK, investors will be looking ahead to a second reading on British growth data for further hints on the health of the economy and the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year.

Tuesday: AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting’s Minutes + GBP Inflation Report Hearings. The BoE will hold its Inflation Hearings, where Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues will discuss recent inflation developments before the Treasury Select Committee. The BoE has been keeping the interest rates steady before, but signaled it was likely to raise rates sooner and by more than it thought a few months ago as it seeks to keep a grip on inflation. Tuesday will also bring results from retail heavyweights Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD), so investors should be watching closely these two giants.

Wednesday: EUR Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting + USD FOMC Minutes. The most important here being FOMC Minutes. With a pre-set regularity, a nation’s Central Bank has an economic policy meeting, in which board members took different measures, the most relevant one, being the interest rate that it will charge on loans and advances to commercial banks. Besides the FOMC minutes, markets will also be paying close attention to comments from around a dozen Fed speakers this week for their views on the recent uptick in inflation and how that can affect monetary policy.

Thursday: EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts + CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (December). Minutes from the ECB’s January policy meeting will be published during the day. The ECB said it will keep its €2.5 trillion stimulus program in place for as long as needed at that meeting, and stated that there are “very few chances” that it will change interest rates this year.

Friday: JPY Japanese Statistics Bureau inflation figures (January) + EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) (January). Most important news will come from Tokyo, where at 8:50 AM Tokyo time BoJ will publish fresh data on monthly inflation figures. Market analysts expect the headline figure to remain positive, rising 1.3% year-on-year, which would be the 13th straight month of annual increases.

Sources:

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/economic-calendar–top-5-things-to-watch-this-week-1268699

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed?utm_source=NLecocal&utm_medium=email&utm_content=intext&utm_campaign=eco-cal-weekly-schedule

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar

Dollar is near 3-year low while stocks are having best week of gains in 6 years!

Friday hot topics:

The USD. The dollar rebounded after data showed that U.S. homebuilding increased to more than a one-year high in January and that building permits soared to their highest level since 2007.

The USD came under broad selling pressure earlier amid fresh concerns over the U.S. deficit, which is projected to rise close to $1 trillion in 2019 following the announcement of infrastructure spending and large corporate tax cuts. The U.S. dollar index, (USD strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies), was up 0.38% at 88.82 by 08:40 a.m. ET (12:40 GMT), off a three-year trough of 88.16 hit earlier in the day. The dollar is just nears 3-year lows and the US 10-year bond yield has eased back under 2.9% as investors remain more sanguine about the outlook for US rates.

Word stocks feel much better though.

US equities are on course for a sixth consecutive session of gains. And not only theirs! World stocks record best week of gains in six years on Friday after two consecutive weeks spent in the red. Formidable, we shall say.

After Wall Street closed with its best 5-day run of gains since 2011, U.S. futures pointed to a continuation of the rally on Friday as investors looked ahead to the aforementioned string of economic data and also prepared to watch company earnings.

Best performers / superstars:
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC), Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) and Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) were all set to report earnings ahead of the opening bell on Friday. Dow futures gained 0.14%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.18%, the Nasdaq 100 futures traded up 0.29%.

Sources:

https://www.ft.com/content/0c07e7ec-12b7-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex–dollar-turns-higher-on-strong-us-housing-sector-data-1260143

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex–dollar-hovers-near-3year-lows-us-housing-sector-data-on-tap-1258615

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-friday-1258770

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD=X?p=EURUSD=X

https://www.investing.com/analysis/rallies-continue-but-still-considered-relief-bounces-200291204

Major Cryptonews for 13.02 – 18.02.2018

Bitcoin recovering to $10,000 could bring in new buyers

Bitcoin climbed back above $10,000 Thursday for the first time in two weeks and some analysts see the psychologically key level as a trigger for new buyers to come into the market. In the week around Thanksgiving, Coinbase added about 300,000 users, helping send bitcoin from around $8,000 to $10,000. For UK-based online trading platform eToro, user growth slowed down through the end of January — which was when bitcoin began dropping significantly. But the rate of withdrawals has not increased, indicating that users were not selling out and that demand from new customers may have helped previous price gains.

Crypto Markets Continue Experiencing Slight Growth, Bitcoin Passes $10k

The crypto markets continue to experience a mood of slight growth this week, with Bitcoin (BTC)’s price today climbing above the $10,000 mark and the top ten altcoins on CoinMarketCap following by being uniformly in the green. Since the market dip in late January and another dip in early February, the overall crypto market cap is showing a slow rise, with total market cap is around $470 bln by press time.

It costs $26,000 to mine one bitcoin in South Korea — and just $530 in Venezuela

Mining just one bitcoin in South Korea costs $26,170, according to data released by lighting and furniture firm Elite Fixtures. The Elite Fixtures data also showed that Venezuela is the cheapest country in which to mine bitcoin. According to Blockchain.info data, the total revenue earned by all bitcoin miners hit an all-time high of $53 million on December 17, the same day that bitcoin notched its highest price ever of $19,783.21.

Accidental Charges Lead To Coinbase Users Losing Thousands Of Dollars, Refunds Promised

Crypto wallet and exchange Coinbase has admitted that some customers were erroneously overcharged for credit and debit purchases of crypto, and promises to reimburse all affected customers in full, the Coinbase blog reports Thursday, Feb. 15. According to Coinbase, the problem was initiated when banks and card issuers changed the merchant category code (MCC) for crypto purchases earlier this month. This meant that crypto payments would now be processed as “cash advances,” meaning that banks and credit card issuers could begin charging customers “cash advance” fees for crypto purchases.

BlockShow 2018: New European Event is Announced, Larger Than Ever

Just a short time ago, Cointelegraph was releasing last materials dedicated to the recent BlockShow Asia 2017. However, today the conference team came back to announce BlockShow Europe 2018, its third big conference dedicated to discovering the hottest innovations, trends and sensations currently happening in both European and Global Blockchain scenes. BlockShow Europe will be held from May 28-29 in Berlin.

Japan’s Cryptocurrency Industry is Launching a Self-Regulatory Body

Japan’s two primary cryptocurrency industry groups are merging to form a new self-regulatory entity following the recent $530 million hack of Tokyo-based exchange Coincheck. The unnamed new entity is set to launch April 1, the Nikkei reports, a year to the day after Japan’s revised Payment Services Act – which recognizes bitcoin as a legal method of payment – kicked in. The self-regulatory body will see the unification of the Japan Blockchain Association and the Japan Cryptocurrency Business Association. The former is notably founded around bitFlyer, Japan’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.

(BTC/USD) Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin price is testing the descending trend line on its 4-hour time frame, and moving past this hurdle could mean more gains.

Bitcoin price has broken past its inverse head and shoulders pattern neckline to show that an uptrend is in the cards.
Price is hitting another upside barrier at its descending trend line, though, and this might prompt profit-taking.
Technical indicators are also suggesting that the rally is overdone.

Besides, the move all the way to the $10,000 area of interest could bring more buying interest as this could signal an end of the correction. A sustained move past the next $12,000 area of interest could confirm that buying momentum is in play, attracting even more buyers.

(ETH/USD) Ethereum Analysis

Ethereum price is trading with bullish price action against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. ETH/USD may soon break the $935-940 levels to gain further upside momentum.

ETH price is rising and is currently trading above the $920 level against the US Dollar.
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $890 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via SimpleFX).
The pair may continue to rise and it could even break the recent high of $936 for more gains.

On the upside, the pair may soon move above the $935 level once again. Once it break $935, it could even move above the $950 level. Further above $950, there could more gains toward the $980 level.

Hourly MACD – The MACD has slightly reduced the bullish slope, but it is still positive.

Hourly RSI – The RSI is once again moving higher after testing the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $900

Major Resistance Level – $935

(BCH/USD) Bitcoin Cash Analysis

Bitcoin cash price is gaining upside momentum above $1,400 against the US Dollar. BCH/USD may correct in the short term, but it remains in an uptrend.

Bitcoin cash price surged higher and it was able to break the $1,400 resistance against the US Dollar.
There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at $1,350 on the hourly chart of BCH/USD (data feed from SimpleFX).
The pair is currently correcting lower, but it remains well supported on the downside at $1,380

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BCH/USD is correcting lower from the overbought levels.

Major Support Level – $1,380

Major Resistance Level – $1,475

(XRP/USD) Ripple Analysis

Ripple price is slowly gaining upside momentum against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. XRP/USD could continue to rise and it may even test the $1.15 level.

Ripple price is gaining momentum and is currently trading above the $1.0500 support against the US dollar.
There is an ascending channel forming with support at $1.0000 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from SimpleFx).
The pair may continue to rise in the short term towards the $1.12 and $1.15 levels..

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is slowly gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is currently well above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $0.9500

Major Resistance Level – $1.1000

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/bitcoin-recovering-10000-could-bring-in-new-buyers.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/the-cheapest-and-most-expensive-countries-to-mine-bitcoin.html

https://cointelegraph.com/news/accidental-charges-lead-to-coinbase-users-losing-thousands-of-dollars-refunds-promised

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-markets-continue-experiencing-slight-growth-bitcoin-passes-10k

https://cointelegraph.com/news/blockshow-2018-new-european-event-is-announced-larger-than-ever

https://www.ccn.com/japans-cryptocurrency-industry-is-launching-a-self-regulatory-body/