Page 163 – XTrade

Oil Inventories, USD flexes its Muscle Again

Following a very turbulent and to somewhat disappointing day for some investors as the earnings reports failed to uplift sentiment, that in fact Wall street further weighed on Asian stocks with negative undertones to the EU market on Tuesday.

The day starts off on a positive note as China’s announcement late Monday, to launch a $100 billion asset management to relieve pressure on companies with good developmental future prospects becomes widely known.

Wednesday’s usual EIA crude WTI crude oil inventories are due for release with some analysts reporting a likely build of about 3 million barrels. The Saudi’s promised to supply any deficit that the sanctions against Iran leave unattended to.

This naturally eased concerns stipulated in Tuesday’s blog. However, with increased US stockpiles, Crude oil price dropped. In correlation to the USD which maintains an upbeat trend line evident in the DXY. The Dollar Index was seen up has been climbing seen at 95.98 up 0.02% more upside it to be seen perhaps a surge of 25 – 35 pips would not be surprising i.e. a resistance level around 96.28 or more could be tested. This means a basket of major currencies (EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY) are going to be lingering should the economic data release from France’s PMI, German PMI amongst others fails to render support for them.

Amid the Earnings season with some bigwigs like AT&T Inc.(T), Boeing Co. (BA), Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) reporting before the open bell, to be followed by some 192 other companies perhaps to will be graced with uplifting momentums from the stocks. In other developments weighing down on market is the Italian budget for the fiscal year of 2019. The EU rejects Italy’s proposal to have a 2.4% deficit to GDP which put them in a 1% arrays.

Global Stocks: Asia Shares remain vulnerable as any drop in stock prices may trigger more sell-offs.

Germany30: Was seen oscillating between small gains and losses, in a range from 11,258.09 – 11,344.81 and uncertain in its direction. If the German PMI disappoints. sentiment.
Italy 40: treads water between 18,707.50 – 18,872.50
UK100: Was the least affected Wednesday morning up trending from 6,968.25 – 6,998.00.
US 30: Trades between 25,013.0 – 25,280.0

Currencies:

EUR/USD: Was spotted trading between lows of 1.1408 and highs of 1.1476 near 8-week lows.
GBP/USD: Treads a bearish path 1.2928 – 1.2991
USD/JPY: The Pair was seen bullish as USD rallies up 0.12% in a range of 112.32 – 112.65

Commodities:

Oil: Ahead of the day’s report Crude oil was down 0.27% trading between 66.06 – 66.67 at levels seen two months ago.
XAU/USD: The precious metal has been trading sideways with up & down swings to the USD. However, upcoming Diwali celebrations put Gold in a demand ranging from 1,229.79 – 1,233.70.

Cryptocurrencies;

Most of the major tokens are green. BTC was up 0.34% at 6,581.3 While ETH was 0.44% up at 207.49 at the time of print 07:20 GMT

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/sterling-could-certainly-tank–but-it-wont-be-due-to-brexit.html

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex–euro-hits-2month-lows-on-disappointing-data-dollar-broadly-higher-1657096

Murder He Wrote? Rattles Market Nerves.

Markets Cringe with the possible retaliatory action from the US against Saudi Arabia in the Murder of the journalist, Jamal Khashoggi. The Turkish president Erdogan has promised a very detailed revelation of the events that took place to his parliament and citizens.

Meanwhile, investors are taken aback as Monday’s Earning reports were unable to shake off the negative sentiments associated with the Brexit, unresolved Italian budget saga amid a stalemate in the US-China trade tiffs.

Concerned Market participants choose to look to the safe havens while others continued to go long on the USD in anticipation of the next US interest rate.

Global Stocks: European Shares plummeted to levels seen way back in 2016 by Tuesday morning.
Germany30: A very disappointing start for the stocks as they dropped to levels seen 20 months ago. By the time of print, it was seen nose down 2.0% from 11,395.14 – 11,248.05.
Italy 40: If the Italian budget saga was not a strong catalyst to keep investors on tiptoes then the latest round of uncertainties has sent the stocks further down to trade from 18,902.50 – 18,667.50 down nearly 0.84%
UK100: Also fell from glory to trade from 7,003.00 – 6,970.75 down 0.82%
US 30: Wall Street failed to get the expect to push it had hoped to gain from Monday’s earnings reports dropping whooping 126.92pips. The disappointment may hold water perhaps until Wednesday. However, as more earnings are due to be released optimism maybe awakened. Among companies reporting today are McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), United Technologies Corp, (UTX). Etc.
DXY: The US Dollar Index, had been above the 96 Mark however trading from 96.16 – 95.89 down 0.11% from it open at 96.03 the offset lends support to the EUR, GBP, AUD to stage a “Petite” come back.

Currencies:

EUR/USD: As Investors become wary of the effects of geopolitics many have turned to safer grounds. The USD’s uptrends are likely to be challenged by the EUR later during the day. By the time of print, the pair was trading between 1.1439 – 1.1482
GBP/USD: Fell below the 1.3 psychological level, although current resistance is set at 1.3005 and lows at 1.2937 where the pair is oscillating.
USD/JPY: As stated earlier some market participants jumped ship for safety this could be seen as the USD retreats from previous highs. The pair was seen down 0.38% in a range from 112.84 – 112.15 further downsides is expected.

Commodities:

Oil: WTI’s fate was in question as tense atmosphere eclipsed the Saudi Arabia response to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Price was seen dropping Monday, however, stabilized to close at 69.17 ahead of today’s API Crude oil prices are likely to fall should markets perceive no threat from Saudi Arabia to use Oil as a weapon of defense. By the of print, it was seen ranging south between 68.17 – 69.65.
XAU/USD: Gold is gaining more attention as stocks and currencies pose uncertainties. Ranging from 1,221.83 – 1,236.67 up 1.00%

Saudi Arabia willingness to co-operate may increase market optimism.

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https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-rise-after-china-rally-italys-budget-relief-1653488

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/sterling-could-certainly-tank–but-it-wont-be-due-to-brexit.html

A Big Week for Q3 Earnings Report In A Respite Market

It’s a big week for Q3 earnings report amid a respite market. As the week starts with a storm of events likely to push markets to their limits. With about 150 companies releasing their earnings reports, Amid Fed Speeches, reactions to the Italian budgetary woes which weighs on the EU. Contemplations on the progress of the Brexit saga and deliberations of the murdered Journalist at the Saudi Embassy in Turkey.

Global Stocks:

Asian Stocks reversed losses, as China tweaks it’s the economy again uplifting the market and spreading the optimism to Europe which had a boost to its shares helped by Italian Banks. As Moody’s kept the outlook of Italian sovereign stable. Meanwhile, the EURO STOXX were seen up 0.4% at the time of print 07:50 GMT while the US looks forward to upbeat sentiments to boot stocks as yields take a break. It could be very disappointing should the earnings fail.

US 30: Wall Street is counting on some of the companies reporting today to elevate the stocks of the US30 which was seen trading up 0.17% between 25,279.0 – 25,539.0
DXY: The Dollar Index began the day on a positive footing demonstrating it strengthen against a basket of other currencies however analysts expect volatility to kick in as the capping upside gains to remain in a range of 95.47 – 95.76 swings between small gains and losses.
Italy 40: Which captures about 80% of the Italian Domestic market posted some gains after a series of a downward trajectory. However, by the time of print had been registering gains as the Italian government hints that it is ready to talk about the budgetary issues. Up 0.58% trending from19,107.50 – 19,457.50
UK100: was up 0.19% as Brexit deliberations cool off a bit, to range from 7,051.25 – 7,082.79
Germany30: Carries some of the heavyweights in the German Frankfurt Stock exchange such as BMW, and VW and Deutsche Bank to name a few analysts are looking forward to a bullish day for the Stocks which were spotted up 0.50% oscillating from 11,609.18 -11,676.47.

Currencies:

EUR/USD: The condition of the EUR remains similar to Friday. The USD remains relatively high and thus any headwinds seem checked it is even feared ECB actions may pull the EUR down. Amid US rate hikes. The resistant level for today was seen at – 1.1550 while support levels set to 1.1498. ranging in and out of gains.
GBP/USD: The Pair is still struggling between 1.3047 – 1.3090 jumping in and out of loses.
USD/JPY: The Yen has remained challenged by the USD where the pair were seen trading from 112.35 -112.78 up 0.19%

Commodities:

Oil: On Friday the Baker Hughes Rig Count came out to 873 from 869 the rise of 3 more rigs amid increased crude oil inventories kept prices below the $70 bbl. However, the week began with investors pondering on the approaching US-led Iranian sanctions. Talks of this are likely to create volatility and stem prices a bit higher today WTI crude oil price was seen up 0.67% in a range from 69.19 – 69.83. Unless investors are spooked with more negative concerns then Oil price may drop to 68.60 or below before any correction.
XAU/USD: Gold has been surging amid all the market commotions at times acting as a safe haven and at time buyers take advantage of sudden drops, to buy the precious metal for the upcoming Diwali celebrations. The pair is likely to range between 1,222.74 – 1,229.63 dropping when the USD is tightened and surging on any worrisome news.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/22/asia-markets-china-economy-australia-politics-currencies-in-focus.html

https://www.investing.com/analysis/what-can-bite-you-this-week-200349585

The USD Is Not Ready To Chillax Over the Weekend.

The USD does not seem ready to chillax over the weekend.

As investors prepare to break for the weekend and profit taking China steps in to revive its economy. The Financial injection has been branded to be effective as Asian Stocks reverse losses, boosting morale in Europe amid uncertainties from Italy which weighs on the bloc. However, the USD parades on.

Global Stocks: Are not entirely out of the woods yet with the US Yields up and Italian bonds climbing, stocks have taken a back seat. Investors are cautious yet exploring unconventional ways to benefit from the current market uproar.

US 30: Opened at 25,398.0 up 0.14% by the time of print 08:45 GMT gaining hawkish wings with the hope that some of the 24 companies releasing their earnings reports today may lift wall street. Which is currently trading at 25,416.0 to range from 25,353.0 – 25,486.0

DXY: With the USD climbing on Fed minutes the DXY was spotted surging by 0.13% to 96.02 and determined to tread a course between 95.90 – 96.09

Italy 40: Has been shedding gains opening at 18,957.50 and climbing to highs of 19,097.50 only to lose steam and fall back as market participants put on their “Black Hats” considering why Italy’s budgetary initiative pose a danger to the bloc the current support line lies at 18,705.00

UK100: As you know the FTSE100 aka UK100 is usually in an inverse correlation to the GBP as the GBP attempts to crawl out of losses the Stocks are pressured amid stagnations in the Brexit negotiations, trading sideways in between 7,012.25 – 7,052.75

Germany30: Is very touchy seen at 11,597.26 up 0.07%. Set in a range from 11,516.13 – 11,617.89 It should not be surprising to witness a sudden downward spiral.

Currencies:

EUR/USD: With the USD up the EUR could not hold on to gains consistently. Ranging in and out of gains from 1.1433 – 1.1469.

GBP/USD: The pair grasping to hold on to the previous day’s gains bullish in a tight range from 1.3011 – 1.3047 and standing mostly around 1.3030 ahead of the BOE’s governor Mark Carney’s Speech later on today.

USD/JPY: Appetite for risk on is appealing as the USD climbs Vs. JPY from 112.14 –112.54 the safe haven lost its grounds.

Commodities:

Oil: WTI Crude prices although trying to recover from recent loss remains tightly locked in a range between 68.56 – 69.13 up 0.39% from the open price of 68.69. Investors are poised to decipher the Baker Hughes Rig Count for further direction.

XAU/USD: The precious metal rose vs the USD to trade up 0.20% in a trend ranging from 1,223.22 – 1,229.55.

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https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-stocks-claw-back-losses-weak-outlooks-dent-michelin-bouygues-1651024

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-friday-1651110

The Hiatus in Brexit & Sino-US Saga Weighs on Market

The Hiatus in Brexit & Sino-US Saga Weighs on the Market, with the 55 hours Brexit summit in progress, the GBP seems pressure as the “BackStop” negotiations is waded through. Michel Brainer European Chief Negotiator asks for more time for the UK to prepare. Meanwhile, the US Fed minutes on Wednesday ignored President Trump’s criticism that the FOMC is raising rates too fast. Fed Chair J. Powell affirmed that the economy was doing well and allows for further tightening.

Global Stocks: Asian shares area down trotting with the US-China Trade spats in on a hiatus. The US avoided labeling China as a Currency Manipulator acknowledging the PBOC involvement has been grossly limited. There is no doubt the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan is a cause of concern to the US. As the USD becomes stronger it becomes expensive doing business with the US. Consumer out of the US will tend to look elsewhere for competitive prices making China a favorable option.

US 30: Was disappointing as the earnings reports were unable to lift wall street as expected Wednesday. Yields continued to surge bolstered by Fed minutes. The shares were down 70 pips ranging between 25,479.16 – 25,810.09 by 11:00 GMT and likely to close flat should today’s earnings reports fail to cause a rally.
Germany30: Began its ascend as EU stocks The surged was helped by Carrefour, and Novartis to name a few. Trading from 11,685.08 – 11,791.25 and up 0.02% with an upside trajectory.
Italy 40: Struggles to get its footing right into a stable bullish angle, seen trading between 19,322.50 – 19,542.50 and down 1.74% as the Budgetary saga weighs on future stocks.
UK100: Is with a dismal outlook ranging between 7,038.00 – 7,078.65 as investors digest the consequences of the Brexit summit.
DXY: Was easing up allowing room to be challenged trading in a downward spiral from 95.78 – 95.49 down 0.02%

Currencies:

EUR/USD: After plummeting on Wednesday the EUR gains grounds with bullish undertones the pair was spotted up 0.08% at 1.1511 ranging from 1.1482 – 1.1527
GBP/USD: Attempted a mild recovery following the GBP loss on disappointing inflation data Wednesday and Brexit talks albeit trending a dovish path between, highs of 1.3132 – 1.3076
USD/JPY: USD is mostly steady vs. the JPY trading in a narrow range in and out of gains between 112.02 – 112.73.

Commodities:

Oil: The EIA reported a surge of nearly 6.5 million barrels in the US WTI crude inventories. This naturally pulled prices down to range from 70.00 – 68.56 down 1.25%
XAU/USD: Gold prices remain prone to risk on – risk off factors. Investors continue to hedge while and Diwali celebrations get closer. The pair was trading between 1,218.80 – 1,226.32 with hawkish wings.

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https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/european-markets-investors-monitor-earnings-as-brexit-talks-rumble-on.html

The Brexit, Fed Rate, & Oil Inventories Combo

The Day is set to be a very active one with a number of high profile events on the financial calendar, namely the Brexit summit in Brussels, The Fed Interest rate minutes, releases of earnings reports from some 54 entities or companies, Crude Oil Inventories report by the EIA and a deluge of Microeconomic factors plaguing The GBP, EUR and emerging markets amid the Sino-US trade tensions.

Brexit the divorce of the UK from the EU makes more headlines with the Brussels summit set for 17^th-18^th October. Investors are poised to strategies and profit from the outcome. Could this have the magnitude, the Brexit referendum had in June 2016 shedding nearly $2.5 trillion in global markets, remains to be seen. By the time of print 1:00 GMT, UK100 was bullish ranging from 7,055.41 – 7,088.00 while the GBP plummeted vs. EUR and USD.

Global Stocks: Global shares were in a limbo reacting to the aforementioned events.

US 30: By mid-day GMT the shares were dovish down 0.52% trading in reverse between 25,626.0 – 25,845.0 although analyst predicts wall street is likely to open lower optimistic market participants are counting on Earning report to elevate the stocks. Which may be lingering due to the fed minutes o tap. Just like Netflix boosted stocks yesterday markets remain hopeful.
Germany30: Once again began the day optimistic opening higher at 11,822.71 however fizzed at a resistance point of 11,847.16 to head down 0.24% current support levels are at 11,688.36 with more downside in view before any corrections are seen.
Italy 40: has been oscillating between 19,857.50 – 19,445.00 nose diving 0.89% towards its support levels.
UK100: Started the day with an upbeat mood ranging from 7,052.26 – 7,088.00. however, with the financial calendar laced with CPI and PPI reports not to mention the Bank of England’s FPC minutes down ward pull will not be surprising.
DXY: With the Fed minutes ahead the DXY consolidated up 0.31% at 95.34 and ranging from 95.06 – 95.46.

Currencies:

EUR/USD: With the USD climbing the EUR took a back seat. Pair was trading down 0.31% between 1.1580 – 1.1521 amid the EU’s release of its economic forecast and CPI reports which could upset any uptrends for the EUR.
GBP/USD: Brexit deliberations begin with a dinner tonight some cautious traders are on the sidelines waiting of better clarity while others short the GBP in fear of another 24th June 2016 plunge after the Brexit vote which saw global stocks down to 31-year lows. The pair has been dovish all day down 0.37% in a range from highs of 1.3193 in between lows of 1.3100.
USD/JPY: Since in connection to Tuesday’s posts the USD continues to rally vs. the JPY in a risk-on mood. Perhaps in anticipation that the FED statements after the Interest rate decision may lead to further bullish trends even if the stand pat.
USD/TRY gained some confidence after Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale were called upon to advise on the sale of Turkish 5-year bonds and received tripe fold on the $ 2 billion denominated bonds. The USD took a break as the TRY rallied. The pair was seen between 0.96% down 5.6204 – 5.7172

Commodities:

Oil: As Market Participants and oil traders wait for the crude oil inventories numbers to come in. WTI prices fell 1.60% to a range between 70.61 – 72.44. Iraq OPEC’s second largest Oil producer has it marketing team known as SOMO inquiring to know the final destination of its exported oil to curb cargo resales amid uncertainties as the US racks up it shale production. Prices may be forced further down before any correction come to play.
Nickel: Seems to be adopting the habit of opening high and receding as the day progresses. Opening at 12,527.50 and to trend between 12,467.50 – 12,602.50 the expectation is a downward spiral by the end of the day with 25-35 pips down from it open.
XAU/USD: Although Gold was bearish, it is presumed to rise during the day as some “prudent” investors buy the precious metal to hedge should the USD begin a sudden descent. The XAU/USD pair were up 0.29% ranging from 1,220.68 -1,229.56.
Silver: Sliver was unable to tag along gold remaining dovish and ranging from 14.615 – 14.750.

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https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opecs-no-2-producer-wants-to-know-how-buyers-use-its-oil-1647683