Fed Interest Rate Decision on Tap With US- China Trade Talks off the Table

Relying on various Fed Rate Monitor tools to access the likelihood of another Fed Rate hike on due Wednesday it is noteworthy to acknowledge that nearly 100% of market participants have already bought in the hawkish trends of the USD.  With the expectation of a rise from 2.00% to 2.25% a 25basis point boost. The shook would appear to be if the FOMC is to hold pat for any unforeseen reason. The Caveat is to expect either an upside or downside knee-jerk upon the announcement of the decision.

On Friday China canceled its scheduled meeting with the US to iron out the spat on tariffs. Apparently citing that China will not negotiate with a “knife at its throat”. Thus by Monday, the full arsenal of the 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods was implemented with China retaliating on $60 billion of US goods.

Global Stocks: are wobbly, The Chinese shares contracted while the Japanese rose slightly.

Elsewhere in Europe, EU Shares were modestly bullish, helped by an upbeat German Wholesale Price Index, (WPI) report a leading indicator of inflation of prices. However, the upside is seen in check as the Trade War tiffs between the economies is on the rocks again.

  • Germany30  trades between 12,321.65 – 12,381.82 at 12,373.31 by 07:27 GMT and expected to remain range bound for the rest of the day.
  • France40  ranges between 5,468.91 – 5,492.70 analysts suggest resistance may be capped for the day.
  • Italy 40 rose 0.99% to oscillate 21,382.50 – 21,565.50 gains are believed to be in check henceforth.
  • UK100 runs amok between 7,455.25 – 7,485.25 as UK Minster Starmer voices out their concerns with the Brexit agreement or the worst case scenario leaving the EU with no agreements plagues investors sentiment.

Commodities:

  • WTI crude: prices rose to 4-year highs, amid production limitations and ahead of today’s API report. By 07:27 GMT WTI Oil stood $72.34 up 0.06% ranging between $72.03-$72.41. Further upside has not been ruled out yet.
  • Gold Prices are still dismal to the downside in a range from (1,201.30 – 1,205.00) as the USD continues to firm ahead of Wednesday rate decision. Investors are on risk on mode shunning the safe havens for the time being.

FX Market:
Nearly $3 .8 trillion in daily exchange is seen in this market however lately volatility is not always triggered according to familiar patterns. With Traders anticipating another Fed hike the USD seems to be in an oversold territory however technical indicators give the impression that they are in the comfort zone. Other major should have been bearish to the USD, the EUR, for example, is seen climbing vs the USD/

EUR/USD was at 1.175.4 at the time of print 07:27 GMT ranging from 1.1724 – 1.181.5 up 0.06%

GBP/USD Was under pressure as opposed to PM Theresa May’s Brexit plans faces more scrutiny. The par was seen at 1.3100. Set on a course ranging from 1.3095-1.3125. Any comment from Gertjan Vlieghe a member of the UK’s Monetary Policy committee will be used as a prelude to guiding the short-term trend of the GBP.

Cryptocurrencies: Following a short uptrend for the Crypto arena last week, this week began on the left foot for most of the Crypto as investors seek to capitalize on the upcoming Fed rate

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Green Day For Global Markets, A Sigh of Relief!

What a sigh of relief for The Markets as investors folk to take advantage of the positive fundamentals ahead of the weekend, coupled with profit taking. The green spectrums seen across all boards and even the red on China’s boards are a positive sign, railing on hopes for more stimulus. With that said, caution is still warranted as correlations and inverse- correlation between assets classes do not seem to be sustainable.

Global Stocks: Global shares are bullish Asian shares are up as are the EU shares. Investors deliberated on the long-term effects of the ongoing trade tiffs between China and the US as with one eye on NAFTA and Brexit. By the time of print 08:30GMT

  • Germany30  rallied 0.92% to 12,435.10 in a range from 12,382.60 – 12,460.34.
  • France40 was trending from  5,463.66 – 5,497.52 up 0.76% at 5,492.68
  • Italy 40 climbed 1.02% to 21,611.50 and  oscillating between 21,496.50 – 21,651.50.
  • UK100 was seen up 0.89% from 7,401.68 – 7,436.58 and jumpy around 7,432.75.

While the tech industry lead by Apple.inc push wall street up

Commodities: As oil prices maintain a hawkish view, US President Trump fired at OPEC to bring prices down. Investors are keeping a close watch on for the OPEC’s World Oil Outlook to be launched in Algiers on 23 September 2018. meanwhile, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, reveals in his interview with Bloomberg on continued co-operation between OPEC and Non-OPEC partners to have the stability to address growing demand.

  • WTI crude: was seen bullish oscillating between 70.14 – 70.86 up 0.65% after crossing the $71bbl threshold.
  • Gold prices picked up to trade from 1,211.40 – 1,215.80.

FX Market:  All Major except for the JPY seem to hold hawkish undertones, however, it would not be a surprise to see corrections downwards as fundamentals begin to fray.

  • EUR/USD  extended gains crossing the 1.18 psychological mark to trade between 1.1669 – 1.1803. up 0.06% at 1.1784 Reports from the EU’s PMI, French PMI, German PMI, may contain uptrends.
  • GBP/USD climbed to trade between 1.3207 – 1.3276 although at the time of print it was hawkish, it remains at the mercy of upcoming reports on Public Sector Net Borrowing and BoE’s Quarterly Bulletin.
  • AUD/USD  lies at the mercy of reports from the US should they been seen as strong the AUD may recede from previous gains currently spotted in a range from 0.7281 – 0.7304.

Meanwhile, the USD continues to triumph over emerging markets like MXN and the TRY. USD/TRY was up 0.97%  found between 6.1950 – 6.2863 while USD/MXN modestly up 0.12% locked between. 18.8270 – 18.8832.

Interestingly the crypto arena has also been doing fairly well occasionally jumping in and out of gains. BTC/USD was seen up 4.62% swinging from 6,340.0 – 6,745.0

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Markets Embrace Tariff Announcement With Oil Climbing

Markets embrace the announcement of tariffs with oil climbing, uncertainties surrounding the US-China tariffs spats which have been plaguing market sentiments for months was announced late Monday, however by Tuesday the market had still not deciphered the implication.

The US demands 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods exempting some Tech companies like Apple from the saga. China also retaliated hitting back with $60 billion on US goods. The restriction goes into effect on 24th September 2018 leaving just enough wiggle room for a recourse should any of the two world economies decide to change their minds.

Global Stocks:  With the market taking the decision as manageable Global stocks ticked up, with Asian shares taking the lead followed by the EU and likely to reflect positively on Wall Street.

  • Italy 40 rallied 0.16% at 21,313.50 ranging between 21,142.50 – 21,335.00 by the time of print 07:44 GMT with further upside in view
  • UK100 was up 0.20% at 7,345.75 trending from  7,323.25 – 7,353.34 with a hawkish outlook
  • Germany30  Climbs 0.25% set in a range from 12,202.64 – 12,301.97 with more upwind in the pipelines.
  •  France40  was trailing upwards by the time of print up 0.24% set between lows and highs ranging from 5,398.20 -5,407.00 Technical analysis suggests second resistance levels around 5,415 and if that were to be breached 5,428 or above.

Commodities: Although commodities are up except for Gold corrections downwards are in view. As the USD is expected to strengthen due to today’s financial reports

  • WTI crude: US Crude Oil inventories dropped -2.057 million, its lowest in the past 3.5-years. With global demand rising, WTI oil rose 0.59% to trade between 70.81 – 71.34 at 71.19 by 07:44 GM. The OPEC meeting set for today may offset prices in either direction.
  • While the Gold spot prices were left marooned between 1,205.90 – 1,211.40.

FX Market:  Despite the USD strength, the 6 major’s currencies are staging a defiant comeback

  • EUR/USD was initially spotted at 1.1687 0.12% up ranging between 1.1669 – 1.1690 with ECB’s Praet set to be speaking this morning the EUR may have more room to climb depending on how investors conceive the tapering plans for the EUR.
  • GBP/USD  Gained modestly  0.11% at 1.3158 market participants remain Lukewarm on the GBP should Core Retail Sales beat market expectation the GBP may climb some more and if not plummet with a day range from 1.3135 – 1.3195 at the time of print.
  • AUD/USD  Swing from 0.7255 – 0.7276 and bullish

The USD fell to the ZAR and MXN however bullish to the TRY. Basically, currencies from Emerging Markets are still stretched and not out of the woods.

Despite the fact that Japan reports of some $60 million stolen in crypto-currencies out of the 2289 tokens 89% were bullish.

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US-China Tariff tiffs continue To Plague, OPEC Meeting on Tap

US-China tariff tiffs continue to plague the market. Almost like a deja- vu from Monday. The financial calendar details events which may add a tinge of volatility away from the grappling trade fears, which may cause abrupt swing for the USD vs other majors.

Global Stocks: 

Once again Asians shares we left standing in the rain as conflicting reports on when US Trump may impose a certain percentage on 200billon worth of Chinese goods. Market participants are mindful of an impending woe thus restricting their trading activities as well. In Early European trading hours, EU shares were also down. Ahead of ECB’s President Mario Draghi’s speech. However, there are bullish undertones which remain to be explored cautiously.

  • Germany30 has enough wiggle room to surge to 12,185.55-12,078.18 up 0.53% or recedes down 0.23% approx.
  • France40  was the early among bird to shrug of trade fears trading up 0.29% at the time of print 08:15 GMT.at 5,378.08 and set to be ranging between 5,348.49 – 5,389.76.
  • UK100 has not fared well down 0.18% from 7,304.75- 7,287.75 with further downside in view possible back the current support levels of 7,286.23 before any corrections are realized.
  • Italy 40 Crossed the 21k threshold trading at 21.138.50 up 0.25% and ranging between 21,058.50 – 21,223.50.

Commodities: Remained pressured down as the tariffs rhetoric continues.

  • WTI crude oil Prices plummeted 0.33% by 07:30 GMT to 68.47 ranging from 68.64-68.29 ahead of Tuesday’s API report and OPEC Meeting after which it may rally back close to the $70.
  • Gold prices also hit the rocks ranging from1,200.30 – 1,206.80.

FX Market: Is mixed with not much logic except driven by sentimental response to Trumpononics. Although the USD has been broadly high for the past 3 months’ other majors such as the EUR, AUD, and for a while the GBP rally against the USD.

  • EUR/USD Ranges in between 1.1667 – 1.1718
  • GBP/USD  Swings to from 1.3070 – 1.3170
  • AUD/USD  Oscillates between 0.7145 – 0.7221

However, the USD remains king over (EMFX) Currencies from Emerging Markets such as the TRY, MXN, and ZAR to name a few.

Meanwhile, some the cryptocurrencies fall into another selloff spiral 98% of the 2279 tokens were in red.

Well Tech shares bath in blood TESLA begins to struggle with delivery as the fire outbreak in one of its production plants.

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Getting The Right Tools For Trading

As we all know every task may have its own unique set of tools to successfully complete a giving task. However, lacking the appropriate knowledge to use them is sometimes more dangerous than not having them at all. The common tools are usually visual or textual and could be divided into Fundamental and Technical Tools or Indicators.

Xtrade provides you with a wide range of tools. Since learning is subjective some may prefer a technical approach, while others prefer a fundamentals approach. Mastering both is key for long-term consistency, equipping you with more strategic options and flexibility both in spotting great trading opportunities and limiting your risks.

Fundamental Tools/Indicators. Are market-related data that could be derived from the news (TV, Radio, Internet). information that could be obtained from the Brokers website, blog posts, daily financial news or reviews and YouTube video updates, which are all updated periodically with current events obtained from the Financial Calendar.

Technical Tools /Indicators. These usually consist of the Trading platforms (like Web Trader, Mobile Trading App, MT4), as well as Graphs and charting systems, (like Candle Stick Charts, Signals, Autochartist, etc). These are used to perform technical analysis.

As you become aware of the variety of tools at your disposal, selecting the correct set of tools that work best for you is highly recommended.

Find any that gives you enough information to make intelligent choices. Start slow aim to spend about 30 minutes each day to learn more about your selected tools and practice Online with them to fully master them.

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Tariffs Or No Tariffs What shall It Be?

It seems the hopes for a dialogue between US-China, to reach a compromise in the ongoing trade spats, which boosted market moral Friday were short lived. According to sources, US President Trump as already approved the unleashing of another set of tariffs amount to nearly $200 billion on Chinese goods. Naturally, the announcement put investors on the edge with some shorting Asian stocks.

Global Stocks: Asian Stocks plummeted as a vast majority of market participants cautious attempt to divert funds. The dismal outlook in Asia weighs on European stocks and may affect Wall street negatively when the US Market opens, later during the day at 1:30 GMT.

  • Germany30 was on a downward spiral between 12,085.45 -12,047.71 by the time of print at 07:30 GMT it had lost 0.53% jumpy around12.059.17.
  • France40 shed 0.29% to at 5,332.34 with further downside in view ranging between 5,331.76 – 5,347.01
  • UK100 Dropped 0.13% trading in reverse from 7,300.00-7,275.92.
  • Italy 40 While most EU stocks slid the Italian Shares managed to hold gains in check trading up 0.33% in a range from  20,680.00 – 20,845.00 likely to be boosted further by the Italian Trade balance.

Commodities: It seems too early to overstand ultimate direction of the commodities, however, the Metals are currently under pressure mostly due to the trade tiffs.

  • XAU/USD remains very volatile, it was seen at the time of print ranging from 1,192.89 – 1,197.35
  • Copper Prices have been languishing low  between 2.638- 2.607 with a loss of 0.57%
  • WTI Oil amid the commotion Oil prices was least affected by the Baker Hughes Rig Count which rose from 860 to 867. The current forecast in a bullish trend ranging from 68.53 – 69.23 up 0.63%

FX Market: With the Financial calendar light yet laced with reports of Eurozone’s CPI, the German Buba Monthly Report,

  • EUR/USD remains in a trend of 1.1618 – 1.1661 up 0.22%
  • GBP/USD meanwhile held onto its gains above the 1.30 level trading between 1.3070 – 1.3104.

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